📊 Backtest📒 Journal Updated 13/08/2026
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STALE?Report written 7 days ago · at $0.77entry levels may be stale — re-check before acting

INO

MoonshotSMALL CAP
Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. · NASDAQ · Healthcare / Biotechnology (Rare Disease)
$0.77
▲ 0.55%
MCap $63M
Live price Aug 13 07:49, +0.55% today. Prior report (Aug 4) used $0.70 — +10.0% drift. Target prices are unchanged; the percentages below are re-derived off $0.77, which is why Base reads +81.8% instead of the stale +100% that was holding this pick at rank 1 on the /turbo board.
BusinessDNA immunotherapy · INO-3107 for recurrent respiratory papillomatosis — a single-asset PDUFA bet on Oct 30, now past a clean FDA mid-cycle review
Thesis

The setup has improved since the Aug 4 report, which was written in the wreckage of the dilutive $20M offering that cut the stock roughly in half. Since then the FDA completed its standard mid-cycle review of the INO-3107 BLA with no new significant issues raised, scheduled the late-cycle review for Q3, and Inovio confirmed cash funds operations into late Q1 2027 — through a potential launch, not merely to the PDUFA. Commercial prep is underway with Syneos Health engaged, and partner ApolloBio posted positive Phase 3 topline for VGX-3100 in China. The open question is unchanged: the file acceptance letter raised an Accelerated Approval eligibility issue, and the FDA still intends to hold an informal meeting on it before the Oct 30 PDUFA. This remains a single-asset binary at a $63M market cap — sized as ค่าขนม regardless of how the mid-cycle read went.

📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
SPECULATIVEMoonshot

Mid-cycle came back clean, which genuinely improves the odds — but it is still a single-asset binary 78 days out. 1.5% ค่าขนม sizing, prefer the $0.62-0.68 dip.

65
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
⚖️ INO-3107 PDUFA Decision78 DAYS

FDA target action date for INO-3107 in adults with recurrent respiratory papillomatosis. Mid-cycle review is complete with no new significant issues; late-cycle review scheduled for Q3. This is the whole thesis.

Oct 30, 2026
🤝 Accelerated-Approval Eligibility MeetingBEFORE PDUFA

The FDA's file acceptance letter flagged a potential review issue on whether INO-3107 qualifies under the Accelerated Approval pathway. The agency has reiterated its intent to schedule an informal meeting; Inovio believes it meets the requirements. No date published — genuinely undated, ahead of the Oct 30 PDUFA.

~Oct 2026
🎯 Entry Point
Entry 1
$0.77
Current price — below the $0.95 offering price, above the Aug 4 lowค่าขนม only
Entry 2PREFERRED
$0.62–0.68
Retest of the post-offering lows; better risk into a 78-day carryIf dips
Entry 3
$0.52
Another raise or an adverse signal from the AA eligibility meetingDeep dip
✅ Take Profit
TP1
Base — approval on the standard pathway
$1.4
+81.8%
TP2
Bull — approval plus Accelerated Approval eligibility confirmed
$2.45
+218.2%
TP3 🌙
Moon — approval, AA pathway, and a credible launch ramp · 2027
$4
+419.5%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Wider than the turbo lane's measured medianMAE of -24.1% (n=41) per the stop rule. On a sub-$1 biotech carrying 78 days to a binary, position size is the real control, not stop placement
$0.56
-27.3%
Hard Stop
Below the deep-dip level; would imply the market is pricing a CRL or another raise
$0.46
-40.3%
Risk / Reward
Tight stop (-27.3%) vs TP2 (+218.2%)
8.0 : 1
⚠ ⚠️ The ratio flatters this — a CRL gaps straight through any stop overnight, and 78 days is a long time to carry a binary. Treat sizing, not R/R, as the risk control
📅 Estimate Date
INO-3107 PDUFA Decision
Binary — approve vs CRL
Oct 30, 2026
approval = first commercial product
Accelerated-Approval Eligibility Meeting
FDA intends to schedule; no date published
~Oct 2026
informal meeting
Late-Cycle Review
Scheduled; mid-cycle already clean
Q3 2026
n/a
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-63.6%
$0.28
Base
+81.8%
$1.4
Bull
+218.2%
$2.45
Moon
+419.5%
$4
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — LOW

Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution

Rate Outlook
Fed funds 3.50-3.75%, held Jul 29 with three dissents for a hike. Next FOMC Sep 16, well before the Oct 30 PDUFA.
Inflation
July CPI (Aug 12) headline 3.4% from 3.5%, core 2.5%, +0.1% m/m — soft print after payrolls at -23k.
Sector Impact
A single-asset PDUFA outcome dominates anything macro does to a $63M biotech. Rates matter only through the financing window, which is a live concern given cash runs into late Q1 2027.
Summary
LOW — the Oct 30 decision is the only variable that meaningfully prices this equity.
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check

Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic

RETA✅ GoodFeb 2023
+199%
in 2 days
FDA approval of lead asset in a rare disease
The structural template for a single-asset rare-disease approval re-rate, and the basis for the Bull/Moon cases. Caveat: RETA was materially larger with no open pathway question.
SRPT⚡ MixedJun 2023
-11%
in 2 days
Accelerated approval granted despite advisory controversy
Directly relevant to INO's open Accelerated Approval question: an AA grant does not guarantee a positive stock reaction if the label or conditions disappoint.
INO❌ BadJul 2026
-30%
in 2 days
$20M dilutive offering priced at $0.95
Same ticker, six weeks ago. The realistic non-PDUFA downside path, and the reason the $0.95 warrant overhang caps relief rallies.
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode

Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.

⚠️

Use this stop-loss set (-27.3% / -50%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -27.3% / -40.3% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.

📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
+10% (ถึงตอนนี้)1-2 สัปดาห์ก่อน PDUFA (ยังไม่เริ่ม)

No pre-run to speak of — the stock is still recovering from the Jul 2026 offering that cut it roughly in half, and is up only 10% since the Aug 4 report despite a clean mid-cycle review. With 78 days to the PDUFA, the classic 1-2 week pre-event drift has not begun. Context only (turbo has no per-type breakdown in skill-feedback.json, so Tier 1): the CORE lane's fda_decision bucket is n=3, below the n>=5 bar, so it carries no weight either way.

🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +200%
range: +100% to +300%· Feb 2023
Sub-$100M single-asset biotechs re-rate violently on approval because the entire equity is the one product. RETA (Feb 2023) gained 199% on its approval — the structural template, though RETA was a larger company with a cleaner file.
❌ Catalyst Missavg -55%
range: -40% to -70%· Jul 2026
A CRL on a single-asset name with cash into late Q1 2027 forces an immediate dilutive raise, so the drawdown compounds. INO's own -30% on the Jul 2026 offering shows how the market prices dilution here, and a CRL raise would be worse.
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
1.5%
of portfolio

Held at 1.5%, deliberately BELOW the turbo lane's usual 2-5% band. The clean mid-cycle read improves odds but does not change the structure: single asset, $63M cap, unresolved Accelerated Approval question, cash into late Q1 2027, and 78 days of carry. The 2-5% band is a ceiling, not a target.

🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-27.3%($0.56)
Wider than the -24.1% lane MAE; a break here before Oct 30 suggests the AA eligibility meeting went badly
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-50%
On a CRL, exit into the first liquidity — the follow-on raise is immediate and the re-file clock runs in years
📎 Sources

Generated 2026-08-13 · Not financial advice