Verdict Accuracy Backtest
156 report snapshots · 13 completed checkpoints · 455 pending
305 past checkpoints pending price lookup
— run
npm run backtest:fetch locally to fill⭐ North Star — +30% within 14 days
The actual job of a 30% hunter, measured. MAE = max drawdown endured before the target hit.
1%
hit rate · n=130
-9.7%
median MAE
| Catalyst type | n | Hit +30% | Median MAE | Avg max gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📊 Earnings | 60 | 2% | -8.1% | +4.9% |
| 🚀 Product Launch | 15 | 0% | -17.4% | +1.5% |
| 🤝 Partnership / Contract | 17 | 0% | -15.7% | +5.4% |
| 🛰️ Satellite Launch | 9 | 0% | -18.6% | +7.4% |
| 📦 Other Catalyst | 8 | 0% | -2.8% | +4.5% |
| 💊 FDA Decision | 4 | 0% | -12.2% | +2.3% |
| 🚚 Delivery / Volume | 8 | 0% | -20.2% | +1.5% |
| 🏭 Foundry / Chip Validation | 2 | 0% | -16.1% | +1.7% |
| ⚖️ Regulatory Approval | 7 | 0% | -7.2% | +4.6% |
🎰 Turbo — +50% within 30 days
Moonshot picks (web/data/speculative/) are lottery tickets, not 2-week catalyst events — measured on their own thesis, kept out of the core stats/table above.
n = 107 turbo snapshots total · 81 complete · 23 accumulating · 3 no-data
5%
hit rate · n=81
-13.3%
median MAE
20d
median time-to-hit
Time-to-hit distribution (days)
Day 14Day 16Day 24Day 27
| Ticker | Report Date | Status | Max Gain | MAE | Hit +50% | Time-to-hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABAT | Aug 10, 2026 | complete | +1.9% | -3.4% | ✗ | — |
| ABAT | Sep 29, 2026 | accumulating | — | — | — | — |
| ACHR | Jun 26, 2026 | complete | +6.3% | -12.1% | ✗ | — |
| ACHR | Jul 2, 2026 | complete | +8.0% | -10.7% | ✗ | — |
| ACHR | Sep 29, 2026 | accumulating | — | — | — | — |
| ACMR | Jun 24, 2026 | complete | +21.5% | -21.0% | ✗ | — |
| AREC | Jul 14, 2026 | complete | +59.3% | -13.7% | ✓ | 24d |
| AREC | Jul 22, 2026 | complete | +60.2% | -5.5% | ✓ | 16d |
| AREC | Aug 4, 2026 | complete | +31.2% | -8.1% | ✗ | — |
| AREC | Aug 13, 2026 | no-data | — | — | — | — |
Page 1 of 11 · 107 total
📊 Calibration — Avg 30d Return by Verdict
BUY
n=91
-10.1%
Hit rate: 13%
SPECULATIVE
n=54
-20.3%
Hit rate: 0%
HOLD
No completed checkpoints yetn=11
🕵️ Near-Miss Log — Selection Counterfactual
Candidates that passed the screen but missed the top 5. If picks don't beat near-misses, the ranking isn't adding alpha.
Picks avg 30d: -14.0%Near-miss avg 30d: -7.1%Selection edge: -6.9%
| Screen | Stock | Why missed | +14d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | LCID | Clears the gate by the widest margin of this run (price $3.95 vs $11.14 avg target = +182%) with a clean dated catalyst (Q3 deliveries, ~Oct 6 per Rivian-style quarterly cadence). Cut on risk, not upside: stock is down from $25 to ~$4 (-84% off highs) after a July 2026 bankruptcy-filing report the company denied; Polymarket still prices a 31% chance of a bankruptcy filing before 2027, and cash burn runs ~$1B/quarter. The wide target gap looks like analysts lagging the crash (stale-target artifact, same pattern as VNDA #37) rather than a mispriced opportunity — thesis too fragile for a BUY-rated catalyst pick. | — | — |
| Sep 29, 2026 | AEVA | Strong fundamentals (Daimler Truck/Torc Robotics exclusive long-range LiDAR supplier, initial 2026 orders received, Morgan Stanley raised target to $27 in Aug 2026) and big headline upside (price $16.25 vs $30.60 avg target = +88%), but no confirmed dated catalyst inside the 42-day window turned up in this research pass — no officially set Q3 2026 earnings date found. Revisit once Aeva sets its next earnings date. | — | — |
| Sep 29, 2026 | CIFR | Massive upside on paper (price $16.90 vs $31.13 avg target = +84%, Strong Buy from 20 analysts) off the bitcoin-mining-to-AI-hosting pivot (AWS 300MW lease, Google/Fluidstack HPC deal). Cut on catalyst-date provenance: Q3 2026 earnings has not been officially announced — only inferred from the Q2 2026 report date (Aug 4) plus a typical reporting lag, which is exactly the kind of unverified estimate backlog #37 exists to catch. Revisit once CIFR sets its Q3 date. | — | — |
| Sep 29, 2026 | BBAI | Real upside (price $2.90 vs $4.00 avg target = +38%) but thin, split coverage — only 2-3 analysts, Cantor Fitzgerald just cut its target to $4 and rates it Neutral, and no confirmed Q3 2026 earnings date was found (only HC Wainwright's own estimate). Conviction and date provenance both too weak to carry into the top 5. | — | — |
| Sep 29, 2026 | UMAC | Real Q2 2026 beat (revenue +81.9% vs consensus) and a live upside case (price ~$24.00 vs $39.57 avg target = +65%, all-Buy coverage), but the two named catalysts — the Upgrade Energy acquisition 'closing Q3 2026' and a '$1.1B Drone Dominance Phase 2 finalist selection' — carry no specific date, and the FAA BVLOS rule timeline remains under debate industry-wide. Cut on date provenance; the analyst target itself is also several weeks stale (last confirmed mid-August). | — | — |
Page 1 of 26 · 128 total
Prices fetched from Yahoo Finance · Cached in web/data/backtest-cache.json · Not financial advice