Verdict Accuracy Backtest
49 report snapshots · 0 completed checkpoints · 147 pending
⭐ North Star — +30% within 14 days
The actual job of a 30% hunter, measured. MAE = max drawdown endured before the target hit.
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44 windows still filling — run npm run backtest:fetch as the 14-day windows complete.📊 Calibration — Avg 30d Return by Verdict
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No completed checkpoints yet
First 30d checkpoint: 2026-07-21
🕵️ Near-Miss Log — Selection Counterfactual
Candidates that passed the screen but missed the top 5. If picks don't beat near-misses, the ranking isn't adding alpha.
| Screen | Stock | Why missed | +14d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1, 2026 | ASTS | Disqualified: Stock recovered from Jun lows to $87.68 but analyst median target only $90 = +3% upside. Consensus is Hold with 33% Sell; 18 analysts avg target $88.09 barely above current price. BlueBird 11-13 launch in August is a potential catalyst but insufficient analyst conviction at current price. Bull case $133 (+52%) is interesting — revisit if stock pulls back to $65-70 zone. | — | — |
| Jul 1, 2026 | TSM | Disqualified: Analyst consensus avg $487-494 vs current $453 = only 7-9% upside to consensus. Stock near 52-wk high; expectations bar already elevated (8 consecutive quarterly beats priced in). BofA high target $590 = +30% but is a single-firm outlier vs 5-analyst consensus avg $490. Q2 earnings Jul 16 is very near-term (15 days) but insufficient consensus upside for 30%+ threshold. Revisit if Q2 blowout + raised FY guidance creates new analyst target cluster above $520. | — | — |
| Jun 29, 2026 | RKLB | Disqualified: KeyBanc street-high $135 vs current ~$106 = only 27% upside. Avg consensus $106.92 barely above current price. Neutron Q4 2026 launch is the key catalyst but upside doesn't hit 30% threshold from June 29 price. Strong defense business and Nasdaq-100 inclusion are positives — revisit on pullback to $88-92. | — | — |
| Jun 29, 2026 | ASTS | Disqualified: Despite recovering from Blue Origin explosion via SpaceX Falcon 9 (BlueBirds 8-10 launched mid-June), analyst sentiment is now Hold consensus with 33% Sell rating. Avg PT $88.53 vs current $71.52 = only 23.8% upside. Stock has already re-rated higher from the SpaceX pivot. Wait for next satellite expansion catalyst. | — | — |
| Jun 29, 2026 | TSLA | Disqualified: Hold consensus (38% Hold, 8% Sell, 8% Strong Sell) from 26 analysts. Avg PT $421 vs current ~$380 = only 11% upside. Q2 delivery expectations ~401K vehicles already widely known. Cybercab rollout progress is a wildcard but insufficient to override the weak consensus. | — | — |
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Prices fetched from Yahoo Finance · Cached in web/data/backtest-cache.json · Not financial advice