Live price Aug 13 07:49, +3.03% today. Prior report (Aug 5) used $211.94 — +5.7% drift in 8 days. Now 13.5% above the $195-200 preferred zone with earnings 13 days out.
BusinessAI compute monopoly · Blackwell/Vera Rubin GPUs + CUDA lock-in — the toll booth on every hyperscaler capex dollar
Thesis
Consensus across the largest analyst sets is $302.83 (61 analysts, Strong Buy), with wider polls reading $316.79 (67) and $319 (79) — call it +35% from here against a $180 low and $500 high. Q2 FY2027 earnings land Aug 26, with the Vera Rubin shipment ramp behind it as the second leg. The thesis is unchanged and unusually well-supported for a $5.4T company; the issue is that the stock has run 5.7% in eight days into the print and now sits 13.5% above the entry zone. Note the measured reality check: this dashboard's earnings_beat bucket has an 0% hit rate on +30%/14d across 42 completed windows — a mega-cap moving 30% in two weeks is close to physically impossible, so treat the consensus target as a 12-month figure, not a catalyst-window one.
📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
BUYCore Holding
Core holding, wrong entry — accumulate at $200-208, don't chase 13.5% above zone 13 days before a print.
86
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
📊 Fiscal Q2 FY27 Earnings13 DAYS
Street looks for continued datacenter acceleration. The read-through that matters is Blackwell supply commentary and the first hard Vera Rubin timing guidance. Note: sources conflict between Aug 26 and Aug 27 — Aug 26 is a Wednesday, NVIDIA's usual reporting day, so that is used here.
Aug 26, 2026
🚀 Vera Rubin H2 2026 Shipments~7 WEEKS
Next-generation platform shipping in H2 gives the FY2028 revenue step. Any pull-forward or slip in this schedule is the single biggest swing factor on out-year estimates.
Sep 30, 2026
🎯 Entry Point
Entry 1
$224.09
Current price — 13.5% above zone, into a printNot preferred
Entry 2PREFERRED
$200–208
Pre-earnings cool-off or post-print digestionIf dips
Entry 3
$185.00
Broad AI-trade drawdown; near the street low of $180Deep dip
✅ Take Profit
TP1
Base — datacenter growth holds through the print
$264.43
+18%
TP2
61-analyst consensus · 12-month horizon, not 14-day
$302.83
+35.1%
TP3 🌙
Vera Rubin ramp lands ahead of schedule · 2027
$347.34
+55%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Wider than the measured core medianMAE of -14% per the stop rule; also sits just under the Entry 3 shelf
$190
-15.2%
Hard Stop
Below the street low of $180 — would mean the AI capex cycle itself is being repriced
$175
-21.9%
Risk / Reward
Tight stop (-15.2%) vs TP2 (+35.1%)
2.3 : 1
⚠ Measured from the $200-208 entry. At $224.09 the R/R compresses materially
📅 Estimate Date
Q2 FY2027 Earnings
Datacenter growth + Vera Rubin timing
Aug 26, 2026
continued datacenter acceleration
Vera Rubin shipments
FY2028 revenue step
H2 2026
H2 2026 start
📈 Stock Timeline
8 snapshots · Jun 21 → Aug 13
Score
84
Jun 21Aug 13
TP2 Target
▼ 2
$302.83
Jun 21Aug 13
Rank
▲ 2
#9
Jun 21Aug 13
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-20%
$179.27
Base
+18%
$264.43
Bull
+35.1%
$302.83
Moon
+55%
$347.34
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — MEDIUM
Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution
Rate Outlook
Fed funds 3.50-3.75%, held Jul 29 for a fifth consecutive meeting with three dissents preferring a hike. Next FOMC Sep 16, three weeks after earnings.
Inflation
July CPI (Aug 12) headline 3.4% from 3.5%, core 2.5%, +0.1% m/m — a soft print that cut hike odds, following July payrolls at -23k with >100k of downward revisions.
Sector Impact
Semis carry the index. With the S&P at record highs and VIX near 14.9, a hawkish surprise hits NVDA harder than the market because it is the crowded expression of the AI trade — that concentration is the macro risk, not NVDA's own rate sensitivity.
Summary
MEDIUM — earnings quality is not in question; positioning and index concentration are.
🎯 Analyst Targets
Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels
Consensus (61 analysts, S&P Global)
Strong Buy$302.83+35%
Consensus (67 analysts)
Buy$316.79+41%
Consensus (79 analysts)
Buy$319+42%
Street high
Buy$500+123%
Street low
Hold$180-20%
current price $224.09
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check
Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic
NVDA❌ BadMay 2025
-4%
in 1 day
Q1 FY2026 earnings — beat, stock fell anyway
Same ticker, same catalyst type. The most instructive case on this report: NVDA beat and still fell, because the bar was set by positioning rather than by the model. Directly relevant with the stock 13.5% above zone into the print.
AVGO⚡ MixedJul 2026
+4.7%
in 1 day
Q2 FY2026 earnings beat
Nearest mega-cap semi comparable this cycle. A genuinely strong print produced under +5% — the realistic upside for a company this size, and the reason TP2 is a 12-month target.
MU✅ GoodJun-Jul 2026
+20%
in 3 days
Earnings beat with strong memory pricing guidance
The upper bound: +20% required a genuine estimate reset, not just a beat. Included to bracket the range rather than as the central case.
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode
Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.
⚠️
Use this stop-loss set (-15.2% / -12%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -15.2% / -21.9% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.
📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
+5% to +8%1-2 สัปดาห์ก่อนงบ
Ran 5.7% in the eight days since the last report and 3.03% today alone, so the classic 1-2 week pre-earnings drift is already banked. Feedback prior: the earnings_beat bucket has n=42 completed windows with a 0% hit rate on +30%/14d and medianExcessVsBenchPct of +1.8 vs +1.4 overall — not a tier-2 laggard, but concrete evidence that the +30% catalyst-window framing does not apply to mega-caps.
🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +8%
range: +4% to +20%· Jul 2026
Mega-cap semis on a beat: AVGO +4.7% (Jul 2026) at the low end, MU +20% (Jun-Jul 2026) at the high end where the surprise was larger. NVDA's own size argues for the lower half of that band.
❌ Catalyst Missavg -8%
range: -4% to -15%· May 2025
NVDA fell 4% on a May 2025 print that beat — when expectations are this elevated, an in-line result is a negative catalyst. That case is the template, not a tail.
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
8%
of portfolio
Core Holding sizing, larger than the speculative names on this board because the business quality and analyst coverage depth justify it. Not raised despite the improved consensus — entry 13.5% above zone into a print offsets the better target.
🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-15.2%($190)
A break here before Aug 26 would mean the AI capex narrative is cracking, not just NVDA
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-12%
On a guidance disappointment, trim rather than exit — this is a core holding, and the May 2025 -4% recovered