📊 Backtest📒 Journal Updated 29/09/2026
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STALE?Report written 7 days ago · at $3.87entry levels may be stale — re-check before acting

RXRX

ค่าขนมMID CAP
Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. · NASDAQ · Healthcare / AI Drug Discovery (TechBio)
$3.87
▲ 4.59%
MCap $2.07B
Prior same-day draft used $3.19 — live price $3.87 is +21.3% higher. The move traces to a real, dated catalyst the draft missed: on Sep 21, 2026, Recursion extended its Tempus AI data-licensing deal through Nov 2029 and granted Tempus a license to its TxFM RNA-sequencing foundation model, restructuring fees from a discretionary ~$84M ceiling to a committed $42M over 3 years — a durable, non-dilutive revenue signal the market rewarded with a same-day +3.92% pop and has kept building on since.
BusinessAI-driven drug discovery (TechBio) · REC-4881 in FDA registrational-pathway discussions for familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) · partnered with Sanofi/Roche/Genentech ($500M+ milestones delivered) · Tempus AI data-licensing partner
Thesis

Two things changed since the last snapshot: the Tempus AI partnership was extended and restructured (Sep 21, 2026) into committed, non-dilutive payments, and the REC-4881 FDA registrational-pathway update for familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) remains the live near-term catalyst, now dated precisely to Oct 15, 2026 (previously badged inconsistently as 'H2 2026' against the same catalystDate — fixed in this refresh). Consensus (7 analysts, S&P Global) $7.22 implies +86.6% upside from $3.87, though Morgan Stanley's prior trim to $5.30 (Equal Weight) remains a real caution flag from a named, conservative voice. Base case (+35%) sits above the core lane's realized 14d P75 of +6.6% — the gap reflects the multi-month horizon to a registrational-pathway resolution, not near-term optimism bias.

📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
SPECULATIVEค่าขนม

Measured median at-catalyst return across the core lane is -6.9% (n=54) — buying at today's $3.87 is not the default entry; the $3.20-3.40 dip is preferred. Morgan Stanley's target trim is still a real caution flag worth respecting even as the Tempus restructuring adds genuine near-term revenue visibility — size for two-sided risk, not just the headline R/R.

67
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
💊 REC-4881 FDA Registrational Pathway Update~16 DAYS

Update on the registrational pathway discussions for REC-4881 in familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP), an AI-discovered asset partnered with Sanofi/Roche. Targeted for Oct 15, 2026.

Oct 15, 2026
🎯 Entry Point
Entry 1
$3.87
Current price — already up 21% since the last snapshot on the Tempus newsNow
Entry 2PREFERRED
$3.2–3.4
Pre-catalyst dip zoneIf dips
Entry 3
$2.75
Deep dip / matches bear caseIf broader biotech sells off
✅ Take Profit
TP1
Base case — modest positive pathway clarity
$5.22
+35%
TP2
Bull case — near-consensus on a clear registrational path forward
$7.24
+87%
TP3 🌙
Moon case — near street high on an accelerated pathway + new Sanofi/Roche milestone
$10.06
+160%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Wider than the regulatory_approval bucket's medianMAE (-9.3%, n=6) given micro-cap TechBio volatility and the recent +21% run
$3.1
-20%
Hard Stop
Deep capitulation — signals a cash-runway scare or a negative pathway update
$2.71
-30%
Risk / Reward
Tight stop vs TP2, off current price
6.5 : 1
⚠ Strong R/R — reflects genuine micro-cap optionality
📅 Estimate Date
Tempus AI Data-License Extension (realized)
Extended through Nov 2029; restructured to $42M committed over 3 years + TxFM model license
Sep 21, 2026
REC-4881 Registrational Pathway Update
Now matches catalystDate — prior draft had this fuzzily badged as 'H2 2026'
Oct 15, 2026
📈 Stock Timeline
6 snapshots · Jun 30 → Sep 29
Score
▲ 5
60
Jun 30Sep 29
TP2 Target
▲ 2
$7.24
Jun 30Sep 29
Rank
▼ 26
#41
Jun 30Sep 29
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-25%
$2.9
Base
+35%
$5.22
Bull
+87%
$7.24
Moon
+160%
$10.06
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — HIGH

Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution

Rate Outlook
Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% on Sep 16, 2026 (first hike since 2023); next FOMC Oct 27-28, 2026 — after the Oct 15 pathway update, so it shouldn't collide directly, but tightens the backdrop for any future raise.
Inflation
Inflation-driven hike; RXRX is still unprofitable and cash-burning, making it directly exposed to higher financing costs, though the Tempus restructuring adds committed near-term revenue.
Sector Impact
TechBio/AI-drug-discovery names with negative FCF are among the most rate-sensitive cohorts — a hawkish Fed compounds an already-cautious Morgan Stanley call.
Summary
HIGH macro risk — the renewed hiking cycle directly raises RXRX's future financing costs, though the newly-committed Tempus payments partially de-risk near-term cash needs.
🎯 Analyst Targets

Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels

Consensus (7 analysts, S&P Global)
Buy$7.22+87%
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight$5.3+37%
Street High
Buy$10+158%
Street Low
Hold$4+3%
current price $3.87
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check

Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic

RXRX✅ GoodSep 2026
+3.92%
in 1 day
Tempus AI data-license extension restructured to committed payments + TxFM model license
Real, dated same-day reaction — explains part of the drift this refresh corrects for; also demonstrates the partnership-headline sensitivity described in preRunup
RXRX⚡ MixedAug 2026
+0.3%
in 1 day
Q2 2026 earnings — revenue miss vs consensus but opex guidance cut 40%
Shows the stock was quiet on the earnings print itself; the pathway update and partnership news are the real catalysts, not the earnings cadence
AGIO✅ Good2026
+20%
in 1 day
Mitapivat sickle cell PDUFA process — comparable AI/biotech regulatory-pathway dynamic for a partnered rare-disease asset
Illustrates the upside case if RXRX's pathway update resolves cleanly positive
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode

Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.

⚠️

Use this stop-loss set (-20% / -15%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -20% / -30% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.

📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
+5% to +21% (partly already realized via the Tempus news)1-4 weeks before the update

Micro-cap TechBio names like RXRX can drift on any partnership or pathway-clarity headline ahead of a confirmed regulatory-adjacent update — the Sep 21 Tempus news is a real example of this pattern playing out ahead of the Oct 15 pathway update

🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +20%
range: +10% to +35%· 2026 (category reference)
No RXRX-specific 'registrational pathway update' precedent exists yet — proxied from general small-cap biotech reactions to positive regulatory-pathway clarity, plus RXRX's existing Sanofi/Roche/Genentech partnership credibility and the newly-committed Tempus revenue.
❌ Catalyst Missavg -18%
range: -10% to -25%· Sep 2026 (Morgan Stanley trim)
Proxied from the regulatory_approval bucket's own medianMAE (-9.3%, n=6), widened for RXRX's smaller float and higher realized volatility; Morgan Stanley's trim to $5.30 shows the downside case has real analyst support.
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
3%
of portfolio

Wide target dispersion and a recent conservative-analyst trim argue for smaller sizing despite the large headline upside and the Tempus revenue de-risking

🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-20%($3.1)
Below this, the market is pricing a negative pathway update ahead of time
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-15%
If the update disappoints or is delayed, exit rather than average down
📎 Sources

Generated 2026-09-29 · Not financial advice