📊 Backtest📒 Journal Updated 29/09/2026
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STALE?Report written 7 days ago · at $8.06entry levels may be stale — re-check before acting

SOUN

SpeculativeMID CAP
SoundHound AI, Inc. · NASDAQ · Technology / AI Software (Voice AI)
$8.06
▼ 1.10%
MCap $2.72B
52-week range $5.65-$22.17; well off highs, drifting into the Q3 print
BusinessIndependent conversational voice AI platform — powers voice assistants across automotive, drive-thru/restaurant, and enterprise customer-service channels
Thesis

SoundHound reports Q3 2026 earnings on Nov 5, 2026 (confirmed). Its own last two prints show exactly how binary the reaction can be: Q1 2026 beat EPS but the stock fell -7.8% same day (-16% over the week) on dilution/offering concerns, while Q2 2026 beat and the stock jumped +15.4% after hours on clean guidance. Consensus target $12.71 (8 analysts, S&P Global; wider avg $13.29) implies +57.7% upside from $8.06. Base case (+35%) assumes a Q2-style clean beat and is well above the core lane's realized 14d P75 of +6.6% — the gap reflects a longer, multi-week re-rating horizon through and past the print, not the fixed measurement window, and the driver is guidance credibility, not just the EPS beat itself.

📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
BUYSpeculative

Measured median at-catalyst return across the core lane is -6.9% (n=54) — buying at today's $8.06 is not the default entry; the $6.90-7.20 pre-earnings dip is preferred. SoundHound's own history shows the print itself is binary (Q1: beat but -7.8%; Q2: beat and +15.4%) — the swing factor is guidance/dilution credibility, not the EPS line, so size for that binary outcome.

79
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
📊 Q3 2026 Earnings37 DAYS

Confirmed Nov 5, 2026 after close. The key swing factor per SoundHound's own history is guidance credibility and dilution risk, not just whether EPS beats — a clean beat with no new equity-offering overhang is what drove the +15.4% Q2 reaction.

Nov 5, 2026
🎯 Entry Point
Entry 1
$8.06
Current priceNow
Entry 2PREFERRED
$6.9–7.2
Pre-earnings dip zoneIf dips
Entry 3
$6.05
Deep dip / near 52-week-low supportIf broader AI-software sells off
✅ Take Profit
TP1
Base case — clean beat, Q2-style reaction
$10.88
+35%
TP2
Bull case — near-consensus, raised FY guidance
$12.73
+58%
TP3 🌙
Moon case — beat + major new enterprise/auto partnership announced same window
$14.91
+85%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Wider than the earnings_beat bucket's medianMAE (-9.6%, n=42) to survive normal pre-print chop
$7.01
-13%
Hard Stop
Near 52-week-low support — signals the market is pricing a Q1-style dilution scare again
$6.05
-25%
Risk / Reward
Tight stop vs TP2, off current price
4.4 : 1
⚠ Strong R/R
📅 Estimate Date
Q3 2026 Earnings
Confirmed date, after market close
Nov 5, 2026
FY26 guide $225-260M revenue
📈 Stock Timeline
1 snapshot · Sep 29
First snapshot — check back next week
Score
61
Sep 29
TP2 Target
$12.73
Sep 29
Rank
#18
Sep 29
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-25%
$6.05
Base
+35%
$10.88
Bull
+58%
$12.73
Moon
+85%
$14.91
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — HIGH

Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution

Rate Outlook
Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% on Sep 16, 2026 (first hike since 2023); next FOMC is Oct 27-28, 2026 — just 8 days before SOUN's Nov 5 print, so a hawkish tone there could compress risk appetite right before the catalyst.
Inflation
The hike responds to elevated inflation, not a growth scare, but unprofitable small-cap tech is exactly the cohort most sensitive to a higher discount rate and tighter capital-markets access.
Sector Impact
AI-software names with negative FCF have been volatile on any dilution headline in 2026 — SOUN's own Q1 print is the case study — and a hawkish Fed makes the next raise more expensive if guidance disappoints.
Summary
HIGH macro risk — SOUN is unprofitable and dilution-prone, and the Oct 27-28 FOMC lands just over a week before the Q3 print, adding a macro wildcard on top of an already binary earnings setup.
🎯 Analyst Targets

Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels

Consensus (8 analysts, S&P Global)
Buy$12.71+58%
Street High
Buy$17+111%
Street Low
Hold$7-13%
current price $8.06
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check

Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic

SOUN✅ GoodAug 2026
+15%
in 1 day
Q2 2026 earnings beat — EPS and revenue both ahead of estimates, clean guidance, no new dilution headline
The best-case template for the Nov 5 print — same company, same catalyst type, recent
SOUN⚡ MixedMay 2026
-8%
in 1 day
Q1 2026 earnings — EPS beat by 40% but stock fell on dilution/equity-offering overhang
Shows a clean beat is necessary but not sufficient — the market was pricing financing risk, not the print itself
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode

Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.

⚠️

Use this stop-loss set (-13% / -12%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -13% / -25% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.

📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
+5% to +10%About 1 week before the print

High-short-interest AI names like SOUN typically see a modest pre-print drift as positioning builds, though SOUN's own history shows the print outcome swings hard on guidance credibility rather than the setup

🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +15%
range: -8% to +15%· Aug 2026
SoundHound's own last two prints: Q2 2026 (Aug 2026) beat on EPS (-$0.02 vs -$0.05 est.) and revenue ($61.9M vs $52.4M est.), stock +15.4% after-hours on clean guidance. Q1 2026 (May 2026) also beat EPS by 40% but fell -7.8% same day / -16% over the week on dilution/equity-offering concerns — included here because it shows a beat alone doesn't guarantee the 'win' outcome.
❌ Catalyst Missavg -8%
range: -8% to -16%· May 2026
SOUN's Q1 2026 print: EPS beat by 40% but the stock still fell -7.79% same day and -16% over the following week, driven by concerns about dilution from a planned equity offering rather than the numbers themselves.
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
5%
of portfolio

Confirmed dated catalyst with real upside to consensus, but SoundHound's own history shows the beat/guidance split is genuinely binary — size for that, not for certainty of a positive reaction

🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-13%($7.01)
Below this, pre-print positioning has turned negative — reassess before Nov 5
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-12%
If the post-print reaction echoes Q1 (beat but sell the guidance/dilution risk), exit rather than average down
📎 Sources

Generated 2026-09-29 · Not financial advice