📊 Backtest📒 Journal Updated 29/09/2026
← 🔥 Turbo
📐 Simulate Position
STALE?Report written 104 days ago · at $104.46entry levels may be stale — re-check before acting

ACMR

ค่าขนมMID CAP
ACM Research, Inc. · NASDAQ · Technology / Semiconductor Equipment
$104.46
▼ 4.92%
MCap $7.2B
⚠️ At 52W high ($111) — recently pulled back · Roth Capital PT $125 (Buy) · Analysts avg PT $88 below current
BusinessWafer processing & semiconductor equipment · Dominant in China WFE market · ECP, PECVD, wet cleaning tools — riding China's $100B+ semiconductor self-sufficiency push
Thesis

⚠️ NOTE: ACMR market cap $7.2B exceeds typical Turbo profile ($5B max) and analysts' average PT $88 is BELOW current price. This is a pure momentum + China semiconductor upcycle play. ACMR dominates China WFE market and is executing: Q1 2026 revenue +34% YoY, EPS $0.34 vs $0.20 estimate. The moon case requires China's $150B+ semiconductor buildout to sustain AND ACMR to expand internationally — possible but a 3–5 year thesis. Roth Capital $125 target suggests 20% near-term upside; 300%+ requires China semicon boom + re-rating to premium multiple. Position max 2–3% — ค่าขนม ที่ risk/reward ปานกลาง.

📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
SPECULATIVEค่าขนม

⚠️ Not classic turbo profile — $7.2B market cap, analysts below current price. Best entered on a China news dip. Moon case requires 3–5 year China semiconductor buildout. แนะนำ 2–3% เท่านั้น

61
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
🇨🇳 China Semiconductor CAPEX SurgeONGOING

China's CXMT, YMTC, SMIC expanding aggressively — each fab expansion order means incremental ACMR equipment revenue. China WFE 2026 spend est. $40–50B

2026–2027
📊 Q2 2026 Earnings BeatAUG 5

FY26 guide $1.08B–$1.175B confirmed. Q2 shipments of $241M (+54% YoY) should drive revenue recognition acceleration in H2

Aug 5, 2026
🌏 International Expansion + PECVD SiCN2026

First PECVD SiCN system shipped (Apr 2026) — opens advanced BEOL/packaging market outside China. Reduces geopolitical concentration risk

H2 2026
🎯 Entry Point
Watch at Current
$104.46
At 52W high zone — wait for pullback before initiatingWatch
Entry 1PREFERRED
$90–95
Pullback to analyst consensus range — preferred entryOn dip
Entry 2
$75.00
Near Morgan Stanley PT — deep dip entry for China selloffOn China news selloff
✅ Take Profit
TP1
Roth Capital PT — near-term earnings momentum
$125.35
+19.9%
TP2
Bull case — FY27 revenue $2B+ re-rating at 10x forward sales
$203.7
+94.9%
TP3 🌙
Moon case — China semicon full buildout + international expansion · FY28–29
$443.96
+325%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Below Morgan Stanley PT — geopolitical catalyst
$83
-20.5%
Hard Stop
Below bear case — entity list or export ban
$55
-47.3%
Risk / Reward
vs TP2 from Entry 1
4.8 : 1
⚠ Moderate R/R
📅 Estimate Date
Q2 2026 Earnings
Revenue recognition from $241M shipments
Aug 5, 2026
est. $260M+ rev
FY2026 Annual Revenue
$1.08B–$1.175B guidance achievement
Mar 2027
$1.1B midpoint
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-55%
$47.01
Base
+20%
$125.35
Bull
+95%
$203.7
Moon
+325%
$443.96
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — MEDIUM

Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution

Rate Outlook
Semiconductor equipment companies are capital-intensive — customer capex decisions are sensitive to global rates. China fabs are government-subsidized so somewhat insulated from global rate cycles.
Inflation
Equipment manufacturing inflation manageable — ACMR sources many components in China. USD/CNY dynamics affect margins on international sales.
Sector Impact
China WFE spend driven by government mandate, not Fed policy. But US sanctions risk is the primary non-fundamental risk for ACMR.
Summary
Fed risk MEDIUM — primarily geopolitical/export control risk, not rate risk. China semiconductor spend is policy-driven.
🎯 Analyst Targets

Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels

Roth Capital
Buy$125+20%
Morgan Stanley
Overweight$68-35%
Seaport Research
Buy$75-28%
Consensus (8 analysts)
Buy (avg below current)$88.63-15%
current price $104.46
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check

Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic

KLAC✅ GoodJan 2021
+140%
in 180 days
KLA Corporation — China WFE capex cycle 2020–2021 boom
KLA went from $200 to $480 (+140%) during China WFE boom 2020–2021. ACMR is a smaller, purer China WFE play with higher leverage to the same cycle.
AMAT✅ GoodNov 2020
+110%
in 150 days
Applied Materials — China semiconductor capacity buildout cycle
AMAT +110% during China WFE upcycle. ACMR has more concentrated China exposure = higher upside AND higher downside vs AMAT.
ACMR✅ GoodJan 2026
+382%
in 150 days
ACM Research — 52W breakout from $23 to $111 on China semicon boom
ACMR itself moved +382% in 5 months as China fab capex accelerated. Next move requires sustained CXMT/YMTC buildout and margin recovery — achievable but slower.
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode

Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.

⚠️

Use this stop-loss set (-20% / -20%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -20.5% / -47.3% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.

📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
+10–20%4–6 สัปดาห์ก่อน earnings

ACMR typically runs 15–25% in 4–6 weeks before earnings as channel checks on China fab capex spending leak positive. Q1 2026 was a strong beat (+34% revenue, EPS $0.34 vs $0.20).

🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +35%
range: +20% to +60%· Mar 2026
ACMR surged from $56 to $111+ (+98%) in 2 months after consecutive earnings beats in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. Chinese WFE leaders run hard on capex cycle confirmation.
❌ Catalyst Missavg -35%
range: -20% to -60%· Feb 2026
ACMR fell -18% on Q4 2025 earnings (Feb 2026) when gross margin disappointed. US export restrictions news = -20–40% historical drawdown.
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
2%
of portfolio

Market cap $7.2B exceeds turbo profile — 2% max. Best risk/reward only if entered on dip near analyst consensus $88. At current $104, risk/reward is moderate at best.

🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-20%($83)
ถ้าหลุด $83 ก่อน earnings = ออก
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-20%
ถ้า miss + guidance cut ออกทันทีที่ market open
📎 Sources

Generated 2026-06-24 · Not financial advice