📊 Backtest📒 Journal Updated 13/08/2026
← ⚡ Catalyst
📐 Simulate Position
STALE?Report written 8 days ago · at $74.31entry levels may be stale — re-check before acting

ASTS

ค่าขนมLARGE CAP
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. · NASDAQ · Technology / Space / Telecom
$74.31
▲ 3.74%
MCap $28.8B
Live price Aug 13 07:49, +3.74% today. Prior report (Aug 4) used $63.52 — +17.0% drift in 9 days, the largest on the visible board, which is what triggered this refresh. Both of that report's near catalysts have since fired successfully.
BusinessDirect-to-smartphone satellite broadband · BlueBird constellation now 13 birds up, production through satellite 42 — building a space-based cellular network standard phones can already use
Thesis

Both near-term catalysts from the last report landed, and landed well. BlueBird 11/12/13 launched successfully on Aug 5 from Cape Canaveral aboard a Falcon 9 — the largest communications arrays ever put in low Earth orbit, over 3x the size of Block 1, supporting peak rates near 200 Mbps direct to unmodified smartphones. Q2 2026 revenue came in at $31.5M (mostly gateway deliveries) with full-year guidance reaffirmed at $150-200M, and manufacturing has advanced through satellite 42. Consensus sits at $83.32 against $74.31 — about +12%, with upgrade targets running to $115. The execution risk that dominated this thesis a year ago has measurably decreased; what remains is a valuation risk, since a $28.8B market cap is already paying for a constellation that isn't finished and revenue that is still nine figures away from the multiple.

📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
SPECULATIVEค่าขนม

Execution de-risked, valuation didn't — wait for $62-66 rather than pay above the $71.51 fair-value estimate after a 17% run.

65
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
🇯🇵 Japan J-LEO Award — Binary EventQ3 2026

Japanese government LEO connectivity award. Genuinely undated within Q3 2026 — no primary-source day has been published, so the date below is an estimate and the badge is deliberately fuzzy. Do not treat it as a confirmed calendar event.

~Sep 15, 2026
🛰️ Constellation Scale-Up Toward Commercial BetaONGOING

13 BlueBirds in orbit and production running through satellite 42. Each launch adds coverage minutes rather than a step-change, so this is a continuous driver — the thing to watch is cadence holding, not any single launch.

Ongoing
🎯 Entry Point
Entry 1
$74.31
Current price — above the fair-value estimate of $71.51, post a 17% runNot preferred
Entry 2PREFERRED
$62–66
Give back the post-launch move; near where the last report was writtenIf dips
Entry 3
$55.00
Convert-raise style flush — the Jul 2026 -13% reaction is the templateDeep dip
✅ Take Profit
TP1
Consensus — launch success and guidance reaffirmed get priced
$83.32
+12.1%
TP2
Toward Piper's $100 handle on constellation cadence holding
$104.03
+40%
TP3 🌙
Street high on J-LEO award plus commercial beta · 2027
$115
+54.8%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Set wider than the satellite_launch bucket's measured medianMAE of -19.4% (n=8, so this bucket clears the n>=5 bar and its number governs rather than the -14% overall figure). A tighter stop on this name is statistically guaranteed to fire on noise.
$59.1
-20.5%
Hard Stop
Below the deep-dip shelf; would imply the financing window is closing
$52
-30%
Risk / Reward
Tight stop (-20.5%) vs TP2 (+40.0%)
1.95 : 1
⚠ Under 2:1 — the wide stop this name requires eats the ratio. That is the honest cost of ASTS's volatility, not a reason to tighten the stop
📅 Estimate Date
Japan J-LEO Award Decision
Estimate within Q3 — no confirmed day published
~Sep 15, 2026
binary award
Q3 2026 Earnings
First print testing the $150-200M full-year guide
Nov 2026
est. revenue ramp from $31.5M base
📈 Stock Timeline
5 snapshots · Jun 21 → Aug 13
Score
▲ 3
58
Jun 21Aug 13
TP2 Target
▲ 4
$104.03
Jun 21Aug 13
Rank
▼ 9
#33
Jun 21Aug 13
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-35%
$48.3
Base
+12.1%
$83.32
Bull
+40%
$104.03
Moon
+54.8%
$115
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — MEDIUM

Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution

Rate Outlook
Fed funds 3.50-3.75%, held Jul 29 with three dissents for a hike. Next FOMC Sep 16.
Inflation
July CPI (Aug 12) headline 3.4% from 3.5%, core 2.5%, +0.1% m/m — soft print after payrolls at -23k.
Sector Impact
ASTS is the definition of a long-duration asset: no meaningful current cash flow, a constellation funded by convertible debt, and terminal value doing all the work. Rate moves hit this harder than almost anything else on the board, and the Jul 2026 convert raise makes financing conditions a live variable rather than a background one.
Summary
MEDIUM — the rate path matters here mainly through financing cost for a company that must keep raising.
🎯 Analyst Targets

Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels

Consensus
Buy$83.32+12%
Street high (post-launch upgrades)
Buy$115+55%
Piper Sandler
Overweight$100+35%
Fair-value estimate
Hold$71.51-4%
current price $74.31
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check

Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic

ASTS✅ GoodApr 2024
+100%
in 5 days
BlueBird 1 launch success + first direct-to-phone call
The concept-proving launch. Included as the upper bound and explicitly NOT the template for incremental launches — BlueBird 11/12/13 moved the stock roughly 17%, not 100%.
ASTS❌ BadJul 2026
-13%
in 1 day
$1.15B convertible senior notes offering
The realistic downside catalyst for this name. Capital intensity means more raises are coming, and this is how the market prices them.
IRDM✅ GoodJun 2026
+22%
in 2 days
Rocket Lab $8B acquisition announcement
Sector read-through: satellite communications assets are being valued strategically, which supports ASTS's terminal-value case independently of its own execution.
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode

Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.

⚠️

Use this stop-loss set (-20.5% / -25%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -20.5% / -30% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.

📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
+10% to +17%1-2 สัปดาห์ก่อน launch

The run already happened: +17.0% in the nine days spanning the Aug 5 launch and the Q2 print. Feedback prior note — satellite_launch is the current tier-2 LEADER (medianExcessVsBenchPct +7.4pp vs +1.4 overall, softHitRate 50%, n=8). Per the guardrail that is a mild tailwind for a pick that already stands on its own, NOT a reason to size up, and n=8 is a small sample.

🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +20%
range: +6% to +100%· Apr 2024
Range is genuinely wide because launch significance varies enormously. ASTS's own BlueBird 1 launch (Apr 2024) produced +100% because it proved the concept; incremental launches into an existing constellation are worth far less, which is why the Aug 5 launch moved the stock ~17% rather than double.
❌ Catalyst Missavg -20%
range: -13% to -30%· Jul 2026
For ASTS the realistic downside catalyst is financing, not launch failure: the Jul 2026 $1.15B convertible offering took the stock down 13% after hours. A launch anomaly would be worse.
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
3%
of portfolio

Held at 3%. Execution risk genuinely fell with a successful launch and reaffirmed guidance, but that is offset by paying 17% more than the last report and sitting above the fair-value estimate. The satellite_launch leader status does not justify sizing up (n=8, guardrail is explicit).

🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-20.5%($59.1)
Wider than the measured -19.4% bucket MAE; a break here means the post-launch re-rating is fully unwinding
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-25%
If the J-LEO award goes elsewhere, the Japan optionality leaves the model — trim rather than exit, since the thesis was never solely J-LEO
📎 Sources

Generated 2026-08-13 · Not financial advice