📊 Backtest📒 Journal Updated 13/08/2026
← ⚡ Catalyst
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STALE?Report written 9 days ago · at $187.40entry levels may be stale — re-check before acting

AVAV

Core Holding
AeroVironment, Inc. · NASDAQ · Industrials / Aerospace & Defense (Unmanned Systems)
$187.40
▲ 0.30%
MCap ~$10B
Trading well off the $417.86 52-week high, still digesting the post-BlueHalo integration and a broad defense-sector pullback, but roughly 39% above the $135.20 52-week low set earlier this year — steady contract-award news (Switchblade, P550, ESAero) has kept a floor under the stock ahead of Sept 9 earnings.
BusinessDefense tech · Switchblade loitering munitions + Puma/JUMP20 drones supplied to Ukraine, now combined with BlueHalo's directed-energy/space/cyber portfolio (post-$4.1B merger) — positioned across air, land, sea, space and cyber for the Golden Dome missile-defense buildout
Thesis

AeroVironment's Q1 FY2026 print (late June 2026) was a clean beat — revenue $641.6M vs $559.4M est. (+133% YoY), adjusted EPS $1.84 vs $1.47 est. — and the stock jumped ~19% same-day. Since then, the post-BlueHalo combined entity ($4.1B merger, completed May 2025) has kept landing real, dated contract wins: a $186M Army Switchblade order (Feb 2026), a $200M ESAero acquisition (Mar 2026), and a $117M Army P550 order (2026). Sept 9, 2026 earnings is the next real catalyst to confirm the growth rate is holding as BlueHalo's Golden Dome-relevant directed-energy/space/cyber lines scale alongside the legacy drone business.

📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
BUYCore Holding

BUY — BlueHalo-driven diversification (air/land/sea/space/cyber) plus a demonstrated pattern of clean beats (Q1 FY26: +18.76% on a 133% YoY revenue beat) sets up Sept 9 earnings as the next real catalyst; the 36.7% consensus-implied upside is achievable if the growth rate holds.

88
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
📊 Q4 FY2026 Earnings~4 WEEKS

Confirmed for Sept 9, 2026 — the next test of whether the ~133% YoY revenue growth rate from Q1 FY26 is holding as BlueHalo's directed-energy/space/cyber segments scale into the combined entity's reporting.

Sept 9, 2026
🤝 Golden Dome / Contract Award FlowONGOING

Ongoing: $186M Army Switchblade order (Feb 2026), $200M ESAero acquisition (Mar 2026), $117M Army P550 order (2026) — BlueHalo's directed-energy and space/cyber tech is being pitched into the Golden Dome missile-defense initiative, a structural multi-year tailwind rather than a single dated event.

Ongoing
🎯 Entry Point
Entry 1
$187.40
Current priceNow
Entry 2PREFERRED
$165–175
Pullback zone into Sept 9 earnings — typical pre-earnings de-risking in this nameIf dips
Entry 3
$145.00
Deep dip approaching the 52-week low ($135.20) — would need a broad defense-sector selloff or a growth-rate scareDeep dip only
✅ Take Profit
TP1
Base — hits Baird's Outperform target on an inline Sept 9 print
$210
+12.1%
TP2
Bull — clean beat repeating the Q1 FY26 pattern (+133% YoY, +19% stock reaction), hits the 18-analyst consensus
$256.06
+36.7%
TP3 🌙
Moon — Golden Dome contract flow accelerates and Street re-rates to the high-end 25-analyst consensus
$318.96
+70.2%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Below the Entry 2 pullback zone — normal pre-earnings positioning becoming a real trend break
$168.66
-10%
Hard Stop
Approaches the 52-week low ($135.20) — a breach here would question the post-BlueHalo re-rate thesis entirely
$149.92
-20%
Risk / Reward
Entry 1 to hard stop vs TP2 (Bull case)
1.8 : 1
⚠ Acceptable but not exceptional R/R — this name's own 52-week range shows it can gap hard in either direction on a single print, so respect the stop
📅 Estimate Date
Q4 FY2026 Earnings
Confirmed date — watch for confirmation the Q1 FY26 growth rate (+133% YoY) is holding post-BlueHalo integration
Sept 9, 2026
n/a
📈 Stock Timeline
1 snapshot · Aug 10
First snapshot — check back next week
Score
74
Aug 10
TP2 Target
$256.06
Aug 10
Rank
#12
Aug 10
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-20%
$149.92
Base
+12.1%
$210
Bull
+36.7%
$256.06
Moon
+70.2%
$318.96
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — MEDIUM

Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution

Rate Outlook
Fed held at 3.50-3.75% on Jul 29, 2026, with 3 of 12 officials dissenting toward a hike — the most hawkish split since 2016. Next FOMC is Sep 15-16, 2026, six days after AVAV's earnings, so no direct overlap this cycle, but a hawkish tilt going into that meeting could still weigh on high-multiple growth names like AVAV into the print.
Inflation
Core PCE still 3.3% YoY, above target — CPI (Aug 12) and jobs data (Aug 7, already printed) are the key data points shaping risk appetite for growth/defense-tech multiples between now and Sept 9 earnings.
Sector Impact
Defense spending itself is largely appropriations-driven and not directly rate-sensitive, but AVAV trades at a growth multiple (52-week range of $135-418 shows the multiple compression/expansion swings that come with rate-sensitivity in sentiment, even if the underlying contract backlog is not rate-driven.
Summary
MEDIUM — the Golden Dome/BlueHalo contract thesis is largely macro-independent, but AVAV's demonstrated high-beta behavior (proven by its own 52-week range) means a hawkish surprise before Sept 9 could compress the multiple even without touching the underlying fundamentals.
🎯 Analyst Targets

Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels

Robert W. Baird (Peter Arment)
Outperform$210+12%
Wall Street Consensus (18 analysts)
Buy$256.06+37%
Wall Street Consensus (25 analysts, alt. source)
Buy (83% buy-rated)$318.96+70%
current price $187.40
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check

Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic

AVAV✅ GoodJun 2026
+18.76%
in 1 day
Q1 FY2026 earnings beat (revenue +133% YoY, EPS beat)
Same-company, most directly relevant precedent for what a clean Sept 9 beat could do to the stock — revenue beat estimates by 14.7% and EPS beat by 25%.
RCAT✅ GoodJul 2026
+8%
in 1 day
$2.49M U.S. Air Force Black Widow contract award
Same-sector (defense drone) precedent for the smaller, more frequent contract-win pops that make up AVAV's 'ongoing' catalyst alongside the quarterly earnings event.
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode

Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.

⚠️

Use this stop-loss set (-12% / -18%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -10% / -20% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.

📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
Individual contract-win pops have run smaller (RCAT's comparable $2.49M Air Force order added +8%) than the big quarterly beat itselfOngoing, contract-by-contract, with earnings as the periodic confirmation point

AVAV's own pattern shows contract-win news (Switchblade orders, ESAero acquisition, P550 orders) providing an ongoing floor rather than a single sharp pre-earnings run-up — the stock re-rates incrementally on each dated contract announcement rather than building toward one binary event.

🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +19%
range: +8% to +20%· Jun 2026 (AVAV Q1 FY26 earnings) / Jul 2026 (RCAT contract win)
AVAV's own Q1 FY2026 print (133% YoY revenue beat, EPS beat) drove an ~18.8-19.7% same-day pop — the cleanest same-company precedent for what a strong Sept 9 beat could do. Same-sector contract-win reactions run smaller (RCAT's Air Force order: +8%).
❌ Catalyst Missavg -15%
range: -10% to -25%· N/A — no AVAV-specific miss precedent found in this research pass
No AVAV-specific earnings-miss precedent is available to cite from this research — this range reflects the general pattern for high-multiple defense-tech names that miss an elevated growth bar after a big prior beat.
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
5%
of portfolio

Real, dated Sept 9 earnings catalyst backed by a demonstrated beat pattern and structural Golden Dome tailwind — sized as a standard core-conviction position, not a pure moonshot

🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-12%($164.91)
A break below the Entry 2 zone ahead of Sept 9 would suggest the market is de-risking the growth-rate thesis before the print
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-18%
If Sept 9 earnings miss the elevated growth bar and the stock doesn't recover within a few sessions, the post-BlueHalo re-rate thesis needs re-examination
📎 Sources

Generated 2026-08-10 · Not financial advice