📊 Backtest📒 Journal Updated 29/09/2026
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STALE?Report written 7 days ago · at $349.65entry levels may be stale — re-check before acting

AVGO

Core Holding
Broadcom Inc. · NASDAQ · Technology / Semiconductors (AI Networking & Custom Silicon)
$349.65
▼ 0.90%
MCap ~$1.66T
Down -15.9% since the Aug 13 report ($416.05), well off the 52-week high of $493.28, despite a clean Q3 FY26 beat on Sep 2 — looks like broad AI-semis multiple compression rather than a company-specific issue
BusinessAI networking + custom silicon · designs custom AI chips for Google, Meta and OpenAI — the arms dealer for hyperscaler custom accelerators, beat consensus for the 9th straight quarter
Thesis

REFRESH (prior report Aug 13, 2026): Q3 FY2026 earnings already passed (Sep 2) with a clean beat — EPS $3.32 vs $3.16 est. (+5.1%), revenue $29.59B (+85.5% YoY), the ninth consecutive beat. Despite that, the stock is down -15.9% since the last report, which reads as broad AI-semis multiple compression rather than an AVGO-specific problem. That drop widened consensus (50 analysts, Strong Buy) upside to +52.1% from $349.65 — the largest gap in this refresh batch. Next catalyst is Q4 FY2026 earnings, officially confirmed for Dec 10, 2026 (72 days out — beyond the near-term window, but the honest current state). Base case (+25%) sits above the core lane's realized 14d P75 of +6.6% — the gap reflects a multi-month re-rating horizon back toward the stock's own 52-week high, not near-term optimism bias.

📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
BUYCore Holding

Measured median at-catalyst return across the core lane is -6.9% (n=54) — buying at today's $349.65 is not the default entry; the $310-325 zone is preferred if the compression continues. This is a longer-hold setup than the rest of this batch (72 days to the next confirmed catalyst) — the case here is valuation recovery on a name that just posted its 9th straight beat and still fell -15.9%, not a near-term binary trade.

87
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
📊 Q4 FY2026 Earnings~72 DAYS

Officially confirmed for Dec 10, 2026 after close. Watch for continued custom-silicon demand trajectory commentary (Google TPU and other hyperscaler programs) and whether the beat streak extends to 10 straight quarters.

Dec 10, 2026
🎯 Entry Point
Entry 1
$349.65
Current priceNow
Entry 2PREFERRED
$310–325
Further-dip zone if the AI-semis multiple compression continuesIf dips
Entry 3
$280.00
Deep dip / matches bear caseBroad AI-capex selloff
✅ Take Profit
TP1
Base case — multiple stabilizes, no further macro-driven compression
$437.06
+25%
TP2
Bull case — near-consensus, stock recovers toward its 52-week high
$531.47
+52%
TP3 🌙
Moon case — 10th straight beat + new hyperscaler custom-silicon win at the Dec 10 print
$629.37
+80%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Wider than the earnings_beat bucket's medianMAE (-9.6%, n=42)
$300.7
-14%
Hard Stop
Signals the AI-semis multiple compression has become a genuine demand-side problem, not just sentiment
$265.73
-24%
Risk / Reward
Tight stop vs TP2, off current price
3.7 : 1
⚠ Strong R/R
📅 Estimate Date
Q3 FY2026 Earnings (realized)
Beat on EPS and revenue — 9th straight beat
Sep 2, 2026
Q4 FY2026 Earnings
Officially confirmed
Dec 10, 2026
📈 Stock Timeline
14 snapshots · Jun 21 → Sep 29
Score
▼ 6
70
Jun 21Sep 29
TP2 Target
▲ 13
$531.47
Jun 21Sep 29
Rank
▲ 6
#8
Jun 21Sep 29
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-20%
$279.72
Base
+25%
$437.06
Bull
+52%
$531.47
Moon
+80%
$629.37
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — MEDIUM

Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution

Rate Outlook
Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% on Sep 16, 2026 (first hike since 2023); next FOMC Oct 27-28, 2026 — well before the Dec 10 print, so there's a real window for a hawkish surprise to further pressure the stock before the next catalyst.
Inflation
Inflation-driven hike; Broadcom is highly profitable and diversified across custom-silicon customers, but the -15.9% post-beat drawdown suggests the broad AI-multiple reset is already partly playing out.
Sector Impact
AI-networking and custom-silicon names have compressed broadly even on good earnings in 2026 — a hawkish Fed is a credible contributor to that multiple reset.
Summary
MEDIUM macro risk — Broadcom's profitability and diversified hyperscaler customer base cushion it, but the stock has already shown it can fall -15.9% on a hawkish macro backdrop despite beating estimates.
🎯 Analyst Targets

Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels

Consensus (50 analysts, S&P Global)
Strong Buy$531.85+52%
24/7 Wall St.
Buy$427.46+22%
Wall Street aggregate
Buy$515.29+47%
current price $349.65
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check

Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic

AVGO⚡ MixedSep 2026
-15.9%
in 27 days
Q3 FY2026 earnings — beat on EPS (+5.1%) and revenue (+85.5% YoY), 9th straight beat, but stock still down since the report
The central fact this refresh is built around — a genuine beat overridden by macro, which is the setup (and the risk) for anyone entering here
MU✅ Good2026
+18%
in 55 days
AI-memory supercycle re-rating despite broader semis volatility
Shows the AI-semis complex can also re-rate sharply higher on fundamentals once sentiment stabilizes — the case for AVGO's bull/moon scenarios
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode

Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.

⚠️

Use this stop-loss set (-14% / -12%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -14% / -24% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.

📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
+5% to +15% in a normal macro backdrop2-3 weeks before the print

AVGO has historically drifted up into confirmed earnings dates on custom-silicon demand commentary, though the current post-beat drawdown shows macro can override that pattern

🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +8%
range: -16% to +15%· Sep 2026
AVGO's own Sep 2, 2026 Q3 print beat on both EPS and revenue (9th straight beat) — yet the stock is down -15.9% since the prior report, illustrating that even a clean beat can be overridden by broad AI-semis multiple compression in a hawkish-Fed environment.
❌ Catalyst Missavg -14%
range: -9% to -20%· Sep 2026
Proxied from the earnings_beat bucket's own medianMAE (-9.6%, n=42); AVGO's actual post-beat drawdown this cycle (-15.9%) sits within this range despite being driven by macro rather than a miss.
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
5%
of portfolio

Highest-quality, most diversified name in this batch — a genuine valuation dislocation (beat + drawdown) rather than a broken thesis, sized larger accordingly

🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-14%($300.7)
Below this, the macro-driven compression has become a deeper trend break
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-12%
If the Dec 10 print breaks the beat streak or custom-silicon demand commentary turns negative, exit rather than average down
📎 Sources

Generated 2026-09-29 · Not financial advice