📊 Backtest📒 Journal Updated 29/09/2026
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STALE?Report written 98 days ago · at $24.94entry levels may be stale — re-check before acting

BKSY

ค่าขนมSMALL CAP
BlackSky Technology Inc. · NYSE · Space / AI Intelligence
$24.94
▲ 0.87%
MCap $919M
Market cap $919M — $30M defense contract Apr 2026. Golden Dome ISR sensor requirement = direct BKSY play. Analyst PT range $30-42 = 20-68% upside. Moon case = DoD ISR prime contract = $75 (201%). ค่าขนม sizing 2-3% max.
BusinessAI-powered satellite intelligence platform · Real-time Earth observation with sub-hourly revisit rates · $30M defense contract Apr 2026 · Golden Dome ISR layer = direct BKSY application · The AI-native eyes of the military and intelligence community
Thesis

BlackSky operates an AI-powered satellite intelligence platform — real-time Earth observation with sub-hourly revisit rates, processed by AI models for military, government, and commercial customers. In April 2026, BlackSky won a $30M defense contract extension for real-time ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance). The Golden Dome initiative explicitly requires space-based ISR sensor layers — BlackSky's core capability. Analyst targets range $30-42 (20-68% upside). Moon case: Black Sky wins a large Golden Dome ISR prime or major DoD intelligence contract = $75 (201% upside).

📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
SPECULATIVEค่าขนม

ค่าขนม SPECULATIVE BUY — 2-3% of portfolio. Entry now or $21-22.50 dip. Target $42 bull, $75 moon if Golden Dome ISR prime. Long thesis 12-18 months.

88
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
🛰️ Golden Dome ISR Layer — Space Intelligence RequirementH2 2026

Golden Dome ($151B) requires space-based ISR sensor coverage to detect and track incoming missiles. BlackSky's AI satellite intelligence platform — real-time Earth observation with sub-hourly revisit rates — is precisely the ISR capability Golden Dome needs. Pentagon awarding ISR contracts H2 2026.

H2 2026
🎯 $30M Defense Contract + NRO/NGA PipelineACTIVE

BlackSky won a $30M defense contract in April 2026 for real-time ISR services. NRO (National Reconnaissance Office) and NGA (National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency) are both expanding AI satellite intelligence procurement. BKSY's next contract expansion could be 3-5x the April award.

Q3-Q4 2026
🌐 Commercial Customer Expansion — AI Analytics PlatformSCALING

Beyond defense: BlackSky's Spectra AI platform is now sold commercially — supply chain monitoring, agricultural intelligence, infrastructure monitoring. Commercial diversification reduces binary defense risk. Expanding into Ukraine conflict monitoring + critical infrastructure protection = non-defense revenue.

2026-2027
🎯 Entry Point
Entry 1
$24.94
Current price — valid pre-Golden Dome ISR award entry.Now (2-3% max)
Entry 2PREFERRED
$21–22.5
Post-contract pullback zone — pre-Golden Dome base. Best R/R.If dips
Entry 3
$16.00
Deep dip — near pre-contract award base. Aggressive add.Deep dip
✅ Take Profit
TP1
Mid-analyst range — NRO/NGA contract expansion
$37
+48.4%
TP2
Benchmark target — Golden Dome ISR contract confirmation
$42
+68.4%
TP3 🌙
Moon — Golden Dome ISR prime + NRO multi-year program
$75
+200.7%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Below pre-contract base = Golden Dome ISR not awarded to BKSY
$20
-19.8%
Hard Stop
Near 52-week lows = lost all major contracts
$13
-47.9%
Risk / Reward
Entry 2 ($21.75) vs TP2 ($42)
6.3 : 1
⚠ Asymmetric ✅ — AI satellite ISR binary
📅 Estimate Date
Golden Dome ISR Contract Awards H2 2026
Even a subcontract for real-time ISR = re-rate trigger. Prime = moon case.
H2 2026
Binary event
NRO / NGA Contract Expansion
Follow-on to Apr $30M — next award likely 3-5x larger given satellite expansion
Q3 2026
est. $80-150M contract
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-45%
$13.72
Base
+50%
$37.41
Bull
+68%
$41.9
Moon
+201%
$75.07
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — LOW

Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution

Rate Outlook
US government ISR contracts (NRO, NGA, DoD) are multi-year appropriations — not rate sensitive. Golden Dome is a presidential mandate with bipartisan support and dedicated funding.
Inflation
Satellite operations have fixed launch costs already sunk. Ground software and AI analytics are high-margin — minimal inflation pass-through risk.
Sector Impact
LOW impact. Government intelligence contract revenue is Fed-independent. Commercial diversification adds some macro sensitivity but is currently a small % of revenue.
Summary
Fed risk LOW. Government ISR contracts are the primary driver — independent of Fed rate decisions. Key risk is contract win/loss competition, not macro.
🎯 Analyst Targets

Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels

Benchmark (May 2026)
Buy$42+68%
Craig-Hallum
Buy$38+52%
Raymond James
Buy$30+20%
current price $24.94
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check

Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic

PL✅ Good2024
+85%
in 60 days
NOAA Commercial Weather Data + DoD ISR Expansion
Planet Labs +85% in 2 months on combined NOAA weather data contract + DoD ISR expansion. BlackSky Spectra AI is the next-generation equivalent — AI-processed real-time ISR vs raw satellite imagery. BKSY's Golden Dome win would trigger the same institutional re-rating.
MAXAR✅ Good2022
+60%
in 30 days
NRO Long-Duration Satellite Imagery Contract
MAXAR Technologies +60% in 30 days on NRO long-duration ISR contract. BKSY's equivalent would be an NGA/NRO contract win — the existing $30M April contract shows BKSY already in the procurement pipeline.
BKSY✅ GoodApr 2026
+45%
in 14 days
$30M Defense ISR Contract Award
BlackSky itself +45% in 2 weeks after the $30M defense contract was announced in April 2026. The Golden Dome ISR award will be 5-10x larger — proportional re-rate could reach 200%+ at $75 moon case.
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode

Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.

⚠️

Use this stop-loss set (-20% / -30%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -19.8% / -47.9% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.

📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
+30-80%4-8 สัปดาห์ก่อน Golden Dome ISR contract announcements

Space intelligence companies historically run 40-100% in the 4-8 weeks before major government ISR contract announcements. Golden Dome ISR awards expected H2 2026 — BKSY could pre-run into that decision window.

🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +100%
range: +60% to +200%· 2024
Planet Labs (PL) +85% in 2 months on NOAA and DoD contract expansions in 2024. Satellogic +120% on multi-year DoD ISR contract. BKSY's $30M April contract already showed the pattern — next contract 3-5x larger could generate proportionally larger move.
❌ Catalyst Missavg -35%
range: -25% to -55%· 2023
BlackSky missed a major NGA contract in 2023, falling 40% from its prior high. Losing the Golden Dome ISR bid would trigger a similar selloff — especially if Planet Labs or Umbra wins the prime.
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
2%
of portfolio

Smallest pure ค่าขนม sizing (2%) because: (1) partial Golden Dome re-rate already in price, (2) strong competition from Planet Labs + Umbra + MAXAR. Add more only after contract confirmed.

🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-20%($19.95)
หลุด $20 = ตลาดกลัว BKSY จะไม่ได้ Golden Dome
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-30%
ถ้า Golden Dome ISR ประกาศและ BKSY ไม่ได้อะไร — exit ทันที
📎 Sources

Generated 2026-06-30 · Not financial advice