📊 Backtest📒 Journal Updated 22/07/2026
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FRESHReport written today · at $0.84

CRDF

ค่าขนมSMALL CAP
Cardiff Oncology, Inc. · NASDAQ · Healthcare / Biotechnology (Oncology)
$0.84
▼ 20.00%
MCap $57.4M
Self-fetched today (no live-prices.json cache yet). Trading at $0.84, just above the 52-week low ($0.82) and down from a $4.52 high — the stock has been crushed by a recent dilutive $10M raise (priced at $1.05, already underwater) and a license dispute, even as the underlying clinical data has been genuinely positive.
BusinessClinical-stage oncology · onvansertib (PLK1 inhibitor) just posted positive Phase 2 data in first-line RAS-mutated colorectal cancer · nano-cap fighting a license-termination threat from its own drug's originator
Thesis

Cardiff Oncology just reported real, positive Phase 2 data: onvansertib + FOLFIRI/bevacizumab hit a confirmed 72.2% objective response rate vs 42.1% for standard-of-care alone in first-line RAS-mutated colorectal cancer, meeting the trial's primary endpoint, and the company completed a successful End-of-Phase 2 FDA meeting to select the Phase 3 dose/regimen. Despite this, the stock trades near its 52-week low because of two very real problems: a going-concern disclosure (cash funds operations only into Q1 2027) that forced a dilutive $10M raise on Jul 15, and — the bigger issue — Nerviano Medical Sciences, the company that originated onvansertib and licenses it to Cardiff, is actively trying to terminate that license over an alleged breach. ⚠️ SURVIVAL: this is not just a cash problem — if Nerviano succeeds, Cardiff loses its only real asset regardless of how good the Phase 2 data is. TD Cowen downgraded specifically on this dispute. The 8-analyst $5.21 average target (+520%) reflects the clinical data; it does not resolve the license risk. Extreme position sizing only.

📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
SPECULATIVEค่าขนม

ค่าขนม — tiny position only. The clinical data is genuinely strong, but the license-termination threat means this stock's fate hinges on litigation, not just trial results. Position for total loss.

78
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
⚖️ Nerviano License Dispute ResolutionONGOING (litigation)

Nerviano Medical Sciences, onvansertib's originator, alleges Cardiff breached its license terms and is moving to terminate the license. Cardiff disagrees and has filed suit. Resolution of this dispute — in either direction — is now arguably the single biggest swing factor for the stock, bigger than the clinical data itself.

Ongoing
🧬 Phase 3 Trial InitiationH2 2026

Following the positive Phase 2 data (72.2% vs 42.1% ORR) and a completed End-of-Phase 2 FDA meeting that selected the dose/regimen, Cardiff is planning to initiate a Phase 3 trial in first-line RAS-mutated mCRC — contingent on resolving the license dispute and securing further financing.

H2 2026
🎯 Entry Point
Entry 1
$0.84
Current price — near the 52-week low, already below the Jul 15 raise priceScale in (tiny)
Entry 2PREFERRED
$0.65–0.75
Below the 52-week low — best R/R if litigation headlines drive further weaknessIf dips
Entry 3
$0.45
Deep capitulation — only on adverse litigation news or a financing crisisDeep dip only
✅ Take Profit
TP1
Base — license dispute resolves neutrally or drags on without resolution, clinical data narrative regains some credit
$1.68
+100%
TP2
Bull — license dispute resolves in Cardiff's favor, Phase 3 funding path becomes clearer
$3.19
+280%
TP3 🌙
Moon — clean license win + Phase 3 initiated + full analyst consensus reached
$5.21
+520%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Below the 52-week low — thesis-neutral but momentum breaking down on litigation risk
$0.6
-28.6%
Hard Stop
Risk-of-zero territory — adverse license ruling or bankruptcy-adjacent financing event
$0.35
-58.3%
Risk / Reward
From Entry 2 ($0.70 mid) tight stop vs TP2
6.8 : 1
⚠ Asymmetric ✅ but the Nerviano dispute is existential, not routine biotech risk — 2% max position
📅 Estimate Date
Nerviano License Dispute
Litigation in progress — outcome is binary and existential for the company
Ongoing
Resolution timeline uncertain
Phase 3 Trial Initiation
Dose/regimen selected via End-of-Phase 2 FDA meeting
H2 2026
Contingent on license resolution + financing
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-70%
$0.25
Base
+100%
$1.68
Bull
+280%
$3.19
Moon
+520%
$5.21
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — MEDIUM

Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution

Rate Outlook
Fed holds at 3.50–3.75%, but new Chair Warsh's hawkish tone has 9 of 18 officials projecting a further 2026 hike, with the next FOMC decision Jul 28–29, 2026.
Inflation
Core inflation remains above target and the 10-year yield sits near 4.48% — a real headwind for a going-concern nano-cap that will need more capital to fund a Phase 3 trial even in the good scenario.
Sector Impact
The license dispute and clinical catalysts are entirely idiosyncratic and macro-independent, but the financing risk compounds in a high-rate environment — any future raise gets more dilutive, not less.
Summary
MEDIUM for the core catalysts (litigation outcome, clinical data), HIGH for the financing overlay — a hawkish Jul 28-29 FOMC doesn't change the license dispute outcome, but it worsens the terms of any capital raise this company will likely need regardless of how the dispute resolves.
🎯 Analyst Targets

Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels

Consensus (8 analysts)
Buy$5.21+520%
Lucid Capital
Buy$4+376%
Craig-Hallum
Hold$2+138%
current price $0.84
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check

Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic

FPRX✅ Goodhistorical
+349%
in 1 day
Five Prime Therapeutics — positive mid-stage combination cancer therapy data
Same-genre precedent for the scale of move possible on strong Phase 2 combination-therapy oncology data — directly relevant to CRDF's own recent onvansertib readout, though the license risk has so far suppressed a similar re-rate here.
CRDF❌ BadJul 2026
-20%
in 7 days
Jul 15, 2026 dilutive $10M registered direct offering at $1.05, priced below the stock's prior levels
Same-company precedent showing how the going-concern/financing overhang compounds the license-dispute risk — the stock is now trading below the raise price.
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode

Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.

⚠️

Use this stop-loss set (-29% / -50%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -28.6% / -58.3% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.

📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
0% to +10% pre-event drift; frequently negative into binary events given the license overhangminimal pre-event runup; litigation and data catalysts both move the stock discretely on news

Clinical-stage nano-caps with pending litigation or license risk typically trade heavy and range-bound rather than running up ahead of resolution — CRDF's post-ASCO-data decline (despite genuinely positive results) reflects the license overhang dominating sentiment over the science.

🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +200%
range: +50% to +349%· historical small-cap Phase 2 precedent
Small-cap oncology names on positive Phase 2 combination-therapy data have posted moves as large as +349% (Five Prime Therapeutics on mid-stage cancer data) — directly comparable to CRDF's own ASCO 2026 readout genre, though CRDF's own stock has not yet captured this upside due to the license overhang.
❌ Catalyst Missavg -55%
range: -30% to -80%· general small-cap biotech litigation/CRL pattern
A biotech losing its core licensed asset in litigation is one of the most severe outcomes in the sector — comparable to a Complete Response Letter in severity (typically -40% to -80% for small caps), since it removes the entire investment thesis rather than delaying it.
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
2%
of portfolio

Going-concern nano-cap with an existential license dispute layered on top of standard binary clinical risk — 2% caps the downside to a tolerable level given the real possibility of the stock going to near-zero.

🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-29%($0.6)
Below the 52-week low — thesis-neutral but a real warning sign of litigation-driven capitulation
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-50%
An adverse ruling in the Nerviano dispute, or a forced bankruptcy-adjacent financing, ends the thesis entirely — exit
📎 Sources

Generated 2026-07-22 · Not financial advice