📊 Backtest📒 Journal Updated 13/08/2026
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STALE?Report written 7 days ago · at $268.16entry levels may be stale — re-check before acting

CRDO

SpeculativeLARGE CAP
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd · NASDAQ · Technology / Semiconductors
$268.16
▲ 8.26%
MCap $47.3B
Live price Aug 13 07:49, +8.26% today. Prior report (Aug 5) used $237.92 — +12.7% drift in 8 days, which triggered this refresh. That run has taken the stock through its own consensus target.
BusinessAI datacenter connectivity · AECs, SerDes and optical DSPs — the cabling layer inside every hyperscaler GPU rack, with FY26 revenue tripled
Thesis

Downgraded from BUY on price, not on business. Credo guided Q1 FY2027 revenue to $465-475M after tripling FY26 revenue, and the Sep 1 print is now a confirmed date rather than an estimate. But the stock has run 12.7% in eight days and at $268.16 it trades slightly ABOVE the $266.17 consensus target — the upside case no longer rests on the average analyst, it rests on Barclays' $300 (raised Jul 20) against a street range that still runs down to $160. Buying here means paying full consensus for the right to take earnings risk 19 days out, with R/R below 1:1 to the most credible bull target. The AEC franchise is genuinely strong; this is a valuation and timing call.

📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
HOLDSpeculative

Strong franchise, exhausted price — HOLD here, and only re-engage at $235-248 where a gap to consensus actually exists.

38
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
📊 Q1 FY2027 Earnings19 DAYS

Company-confirmed: results release Sep 1 after market close, conference call 2:00pm PT. Guidance is $465-475M revenue for the quarter ended Aug 1. The question is whether AEC share gains hold as hyperscalers qualify second sources.

Sep 1, 2026
🔌 800G/1.6T AEC Design-Win RampONGOING

Next-generation rack architectures pull more active electrical cable content per GPU. Continuous rather than dated — shows up as revenue mix and gross margin, not as an announcement.

Ongoing
🎯 Entry Point
Entry 1
$268.16
Current price — above consensus, chasing an 8.26% sessionNot preferred
Entry 2PREFERRED
$235–248
Back toward where the last report was written; restores a real gap to consensusIf dips
Entry 3
$210.00
Original zone floor — needs an AI-capex scare or a guidance missDeep dip
✅ Take Profit
TP1
Post-print drift if Sep 1 beats the $465-475M guide
$285
+6.3%
TP2
Barclays target — the only major target above the current price
$300
+11.9%
TP3 🌙
Requires a fresh estimate cycle on 1.6T AEC content · 2027
$348.6
+30%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Wider than the earnings_beat bucket's measured medianMAE of -9.6% (n=42, so that bucket governs over the -14% overall figure per the stop rule)
$232.3
-13.4%
Hard Stop
Below the deep-dip shelf; would mean the AEC growth premium is being repriced
$205
-23.6%
Risk / Reward
Tight stop (-13.4%) vs TP2 (+11.9%)
0.89 : 1
⚠ ⚠️ BELOW 1:1 — risking more than the credible bull target offers. This single number is why the verdict moved to HOLD; it is not a rounding issue, it is the whole argument
📅 Estimate Date
Q1 FY2027 Earnings
Company-confirmed, after close · guide $465-475M
Sep 1, 2026
est. revenue $465-475M
Q2 FY2027 Earnings
The print where tripled-revenue comparisons start to bite
Dec 2026
n/a
📈 Stock Timeline
5 snapshots · Jun 23 → Aug 13
Score
▼ 19
62
Jun 23Aug 13
TP2 Target
▼ 40
$300
Jun 23Aug 13
Rank
▼ 20
#25
Jun 23Aug 13
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-30%
$187.71
Base
-0.7%
$266.17
Bull
+11.9%
$300
Moon
+30%
$348.6
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — MEDIUM

Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution

Rate Outlook
Fed funds 3.50-3.75%, held Jul 29 with three dissents for a hike. Next FOMC Sep 16, two weeks after the print.
Inflation
July CPI (Aug 12) headline 3.4% from 3.5%, core 2.5%, +0.1% m/m — soft, following payrolls at -23k.
Sector Impact
CRDO is a high-multiple derivative of AI capex. It carries the same index-concentration risk as the large semis but with far less liquidity cushion, so a hawkish surprise or an AI-capex scare moves it more than NVDA, not less.
Summary
MEDIUM — high-beta expression of the same AI trade the whole board is long.
🎯 Analyst Targets

Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels

Consensus
Buy$266.17-1%
Barclays
Overweight$300+12%
Susquehanna
Positive$250-7%
Street low
Hold$160-40%
current price $268.16
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check

Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic

AVGO⚡ MixedJul 2026
+4.7%
in 1 day
Q2 FY2026 earnings beat after a pre-earnings run
The direct template: a genuinely strong print delivered under +5% because the move had already happened. CRDO enters Sep 1 in the same posture, only more extended.
NVDA❌ BadMay 2025
-4%
in 1 day
Q1 FY2026 earnings — beat, stock fell anyway
What happens when positioning sets the bar instead of the model. Included because CRDO is now priced above consensus, which is exactly that condition.
MU✅ GoodJun 2026
+15%
in 2 days
Earnings beat with strong pricing guidance
Upper bound, included for balance — but it took a full estimate reset, and CRDO already had its reset when FY26 revenue tripled.
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode

Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.

⚠️

Use this stop-loss set (-13.4% / -20%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -13.4% / -23.6% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.

📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
+12% to +15%2-3 สัปดาห์ก่อนงบ

The pre-earnings move is not merely spent, it has overshot: +12.7% in eight days including +8.26% today, carrying the stock through consensus with 19 days still to run. Feedback prior: earnings_beat is n=42 with medianExcessVsBenchPct +1.8 vs +1.4 overall — neither leader nor laggard, so no tier-2 adjustment, but its 0% hit rate on +30%/14d is a reminder that the remaining upside here is small.

🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +8%
range: +4% to +15%· Jul 2026
Mega/large-cap semis on a beat cluster in single digits when the run-up already happened: AVGO +4.7% (Jul 2026) is the closest comparable. MU's +20% (Jun 2026) required an estimate reset CRDO is unlikely to get twice.
❌ Catalyst Missavg -18%
range: -12% to -25%· May 2025
The asymmetry is the point: a stock that has run 12.7% through consensus into a print has far more to give back on a miss than to gain on a beat.
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
2%
of portfolio

Cut from 3%. Not a conviction change on the AEC franchise — purely that entering above consensus with sub-1:1 R/R into an earnings date does not deserve a normal position.

🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-13.4%($232.3)
A break here before Sep 1 means the pre-earnings crowding is unwinding
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-20%
On a guidance miss, exit — at this multiple a decelerating growth print re-rates fast
📎 Sources

Generated 2026-08-13 · Not financial advice