📊 Backtest📒 Journal Updated 29/09/2026
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STALE?Report written 7 days ago · at $10.30entry levels may be stale — re-check before acting

IQMX

ค่าขนมSMALL CAP
IQM Quantum Computers Oyj · NASDAQ · Technology / Quantum Computing
$10.30
▲ 0.00%
MCap $1.95B
Self-fetched today (live-prices.json cache dated Aug 13, too stale to use). Up modestly from $9.65 (Aug 5) but the pattern flagged last report has repeated and intensified: three separate commercial-win announcements in September each produced a same-day decline (LUMI -1.63%, Toyo -5.09%, Brazil -4.93%) — good news is still not being rewarded.
BusinessSuperconducting full-stack quantum computers · Commercial momentum accelerating (Brazil, Japan/Toyo second system, Finland LUMI staged path) but the market keeps selling the stock on each announcement — the persistent sentiment/fundamentals gap from the last report has only deepened
Thesis

IQM's commercial momentum has genuinely accelerated since the last report — a second full-stack system sale to Toyo (Japan, Sep 15), a first South American deployment via Brazil's Eldorado Research Institute (Sep 17), and a staged upgrade path selected by Finland's LUMI AI Factory toward logical qubits (Sep 10) — plus BTIG initiated coverage at Buy with a $20 target (~Sep 21), the first fresh sell-side validation since the IPO. Yet the stock fell on EVERY one of those three announcement days (-1.63%, -5.09%, -4.93%), the exact 'good news doesn't move this stock' pattern the last report flagged, now with three more data points confirming it's persistent rather than a one-off. Analyst coverage remains thin (2 analysts: BTIG Buy $20, Redburn Hold $12.88, average $16.44) — per this run's tier2 feedback, IQMX's catalystType (partnership_win) is a measured LAGGARD across the turbo lane (medianExcessVsBenchPct -3.8pp vs +2.0pp overall, n=16), which argues for keeping conviction and sizing small even as the underlying commercial story improves. Cash (€309.4M, runway into Q2 2028) removes survival risk.

📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
SPECULATIVEค่าขนม

ค่าขนม SPECULATIVE — 2% max, unchanged smallest sizing. Measured turbo median at-catalyst return is -13.7% (n=19); this specific stock has additionally sold off on every recent catalyst, so Entry 1 is explicitly not the default — wait for the $9.20-9.60 zone. IQMX's catalystType (partnership_win) is a measured tier-2 laggard across the turbo lane, so this pick needs the wide Moon case (240%, government contract) to justify inclusion, not the Base/Bull cases alone.

81
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
🏛️ US/EU Government Quantum Contract WaveH2 2026

Still the binary Moon catalyst — IQMX was excluded from the May 2026 $2B US Commerce Dept quantum equity round that sent RGTI/QBTS/Infleqtion up 30%+ in a single day. No confirmed date or new signal since the last report on inclusion in a future round.

H2 2026
🌎 Commercial Momentum — Toyo, Brazil, LUMIACCELERATING

Second full-stack system sale to Toyo Corporation (Japan, Sep 15), first South American deployment via Brazil's Eldorado Research Institute (Sep 17), and Finland's LUMI AI Factory selecting IQM's staged path to logical-qubit quantum computing (Sep 10) — three real commercial wins in three weeks, none of which moved the stock up.

Sep 2026
📈 BTIG Buy Initiation ($20 Target)NEW COVERAGE

First fresh sell-side validation since the IPO — BTIG's Jesse Sobelson initiated coverage (~Sep 21) at Buy with a $20 price target (+94% from current price), versus Redburn's more cautious Hold at $12.88.

Sep 2026
🎯 Entry Point
Entry 1
$10.30
Current price — turbo lane's measured median at-catalyst return is -13.7% (n=19), and this specific stock has sold off on every recent catalyst, so this is not the default entryNow (2% max)
Entry 2PREFERRED
$9.2–9.6
Toward the recent 52-week-low zone — given the demonstrated pattern of selling into good news, this remains the more disciplined entryIf dips
Entry 3
$7.80
Deep dip if quantum-sector sentiment de-rates furtherIf sector selloff
✅ Take Profit
TP1
Base — backlog conversion tracks the FY26 guide with continued commercial wins (Brazil/Toyo/LUMI-style deals), no fresh catalyst needed; Base assumes a ~6-9mo horizon for sentiment to catch up to the commercial cadence
$15.45
+50%
TP2
Bull — hits BTIG's $20 target as sentiment finally starts crediting the commercial momentum
$20.09
+95%
TP3 🌙
Moon — a real US/EU government quantum-contract win lands, triggering the full re-rate seen in RGTI/QBTS/DWAV in May 2026
$35.02
+240%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Wider than the turbo partnership_win-type median MAE (-25.9%, n=16) given this name's demonstrated pattern of selling off even on good news
$7.4
-28.2%
Hard Stop
Deep breach — backlog conversion stalling, a failed government-contract bid confirmed, or a new dilutive warrant wave
$6.2
-39.8%
Risk / Reward
From Entry 2 ($9.40 mid) tight stop vs TP2 ($20.09)
3.3 : 1
⚠ Convex on paper via the Moon case, but this name has shown three more times this quarter that good news doesn't stop the slide — treat every stop level as real, not theoretical
📅 Estimate Date
US/EU government quantum contract decision
Still the binary Moon catalyst; no new signal on timing since the last report
H2 2026 (undated)
Unconfirmed
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-35%
$6.7
Base
+50%
$15.45
Bull
+95%
$20.09
Moon
+240%
$35.02
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — MEDIUM

Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution

Rate Outlook
Growth/speculative tech like quantum computing is rate-sensitive, but IQMX's own persistent post-news price action and the government-contract binary continue to dominate the near-term stock story far more than macro.
Inflation
Core inflation remains above target — a secondary factor for this name.
Sector Impact
The repeated sell-the-news pattern this quarter (three times in September alone) suggests the current discount is IQMX-specific/sector-sentiment-driven rather than a macro-rate story.
Summary
Macro risk is secondary here — the persistent gap between genuinely improving commercial fundamentals and the stock's reaction is the dominant story, now with three more months of confirming evidence.
🎯 Analyst Targets

Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels

BTIG (Jesse Sobelson, Sep 2026 initiation)
Buy$20+94%
Rothschild & Co Redburn (Mike Harrison)
Hold$12.88+25%
Average (2 analysts)
Moderate Buy$16.44+60%
current price $10.30
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check

Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic

DWAV✅ GoodMay 2026
+33%
in 1 day
May 2026 US Commerce Dept quantum equity round inclusion
The direct precedent for what a real US government quantum award does for a stock in this group — IQMX was excluded from this exact round and remains a candidate for a future one.
IQMX❌ BadSep 2026
-3.9%
in 1 day
Three commercial wins in one month (LUMI staged path, Toyo second system, Brazil Eldorado deployment) all sold on the news
Average of three same-company, same-month data points (-1.63%, -5.09%, -4.93%) — the strongest evidence yet that sentiment, not fundamentals, is the binding constraint on this stock right now.
RGTI✅ GoodMay 2026
+30%
in 1 day
May 2026 US Commerce Dept quantum equity round inclusion
A second name from the same May 2026 government round, reinforcing the size of move a real US award produces in this sector.
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode

Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.

⚠️

Use this stop-loss set (-28% / -25%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -28.2% / -39.8% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.

📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
n/a — negative reaction has been the norm this quartern/a — this name has not shown a positive pre-event pattern in any of the last four data points

Post-SPAC quantum names have shown no reliable pre-announcement runup pattern for IQMX specifically — three commercial wins in September each produced a same-day DECLINE rather than a pop, the opposite of a typical binary-catalyst setup.

🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +31%
range: +30% to +33%· May 2026 (DWAV/RGTI/QUBT sector round)
The May 2026 US government quantum equity round sent D-Wave +33%, Rigetti +30%, Infleqtion +31% in a single day — the direct precedent for what a real US government contract win would do for IQMX, since it was excluded from that exact round and remains excluded as of this report.
❌ Catalyst Missavg -4%
range: -1.6% to -5.1%· Sep 2026 (three separate IQMX announcement-day declines)
IQMX's own pattern is now the most relevant downside case — three separate commercial-win announcements in September (LUMI, Toyo, Brazil) each produced same-day declines of -1.6% to -5.1%, confirming the persistent sentiment discount flagged last report is deepening, not a one-off.
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
2%
of portfolio

2% — unchanged, and reinforced by this run's tier2 feedback: partnership_win is a measured laggard catalystType across the whole turbo lane (-3.8pp vs +2.0pp overall, n=16). Genuinely improving fundamentals are still not being rewarded by the market three months running — size small until sentiment shows any sign of turning.

🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-28%($7.4)
หลุด $7.40 = แนวรับทางเทคนิคสุดท้ายหลุด — กว้างกว่า median MAE กลุ่ม partnership_win (-25.9%, n=16) เพราะหุ้นนี้ขายลงแม้ข่าวดีซ้ำๆ
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-25%
ถ้า backlog conversion สะดุดหรือแพ้ประมูลสัญญาภาครัฐยืนยันแล้ว — exit อย่ารอให้ sentiment กลับเอง
📎 Sources

Generated 2026-09-29 · Not financial advice