📊 Backtest📒 Journal Updated 29/09/2026
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STALE?Report written 7 days ago · at $4.63entry levels may be stale — re-check before acting

MOB

ค่าขนมSMALL CAP
Mobilicom Limited · NASDAQ · Industrials / Aerospace & Defense (Drone Cybersecurity & Comms)
$4.63
▼ 3.54%
MCap $59.58M
Down 3.5% today and trading just 6.9% above the 52-week low ($4.33) — the stock has drifted from $5.14 (Aug 10 report) to $4.63 over seven weeks despite a run of genuinely positive news (Aug 13 H1 results, Aug 5 Israeli Tier-1 design win, Sept 14 Asia-Pacific robotics follow-on order). Nov 12, 2026 Q3 results is the next real test of whether revenue conversion can outrun the sharply widened H1 net loss.
BusinessDefense comms/cybersecurity microcap · SkyHopper PRO + ICE Electronic Warfare Resistance & Cybersecurity Suite now shipping on a monthly delivery cadence under a $249M, 5-year DoD Program of Record with a Tier-1 U.S. drone manufacturer, plus new Israeli and Asia-Pacific Tier-1 design wins — debt-free, no active ATM, but H1 2026 net loss widened sharply as opex scaled ahead of revenue
Thesis

Mobilicom's H1 2026 print (Aug 13) confirmed the DoD Program of Record moved from episodic purchase orders to a monthly delivery cadence — a real structural inflection — and the company has since added an Israeli Tier-1 defense design win (Aug 5) and a follow-on Asia-Pacific robotics order (Sept 14). But H1 revenue grew only 19% YoY to $1.73M while net loss ballooned to $6.69M (from $0.07M in H1 2025) as opex surged to $9.31M — the market's read has been net negative, with the stock drifting from $5.14 to $4.63 (-9.9%) over the seven weeks since that report despite the design-win headlines. Cash fell to $15.08M (Jun 30) from $19.0M (Dec 2025); at the adjusted $591K/month burn that's ~25 months of runway, or ~18 months at the unadjusted $859K/month rate — both clear the 12-month survival bar and no active ATM was found in recent filings, so this is NOT a survival flag, but the burn trend needs to stabilize by Nov 12. catalystType is partnership_win, turbo's weakest bucket (medianExcessVsBenchPct -3.8pp vs +2.0pp lane overall, n=16) — position sized down to 2% (from the prior 3%) to reflect both that headwind and the widened losses, despite the real, converting DoD contract underneath a $60M market cap.

📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
SPECULATIVEค่าขนม

SPECULATIVE — measured turbo entry-timing data (median -13.7% return from report price to catalyst, n=19) argues against buying now; wait for the $3.90-4.20 dip zone. MOB's catalystType (partnership_win) is turbo's weakest bucket (-3.8pp median excess vs +2.0pp lane overall, n=16), and H1 net loss widened nearly 100x YoY even as the DoD program converts to real monthly revenue — sized down to 2% to reflect both. Nov 12 is the next real confirmation point.

73
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
📊 Next Results Update (Q3 2026)44 DAYS

TipRanks lists Nov 12, 2026 as the confirmed next results date. Key read: whether the H1 2026 net loss widening ($6.69M vs $0.07M prior year) is stabilizing as the DoD program's monthly delivery cadence scales, or whether opex keeps outrunning revenue conversion.

Nov 12, 2026
🛡️ $249M DoD Program of Record — Now at Monthly Delivery CadenceONGOING

SkyHopper PRO/ICE systems moved from episodic purchase orders to a monthly delivery cadence under the 5-year, $249M program with a Tier-1 U.S. drone manufacturer selling to the Department of War. Ongoing structural driver behind every quarterly print from here.

Ongoing
🌏 New Design-Win Pipeline (Israel + Asia-Pacific)ONGOING

Aug 5 Tier-1 Israeli defense design win (loitering munitions) and Sept 14 follow-on production order from an Asia-based Tier-1 robotics customer — the first real evidence of geographic diversification beyond the single U.S. DoD customer concentration risk.

Ongoing
🎯 Entry Point
Entry 1
$4.63
Current price — already just 6.9% above the 52-week low ($4.33)Now (small starter)
Entry 2PREFERRED
$3.9–4.2
Dip zone through/near the 52-week low — measured turbo entry-timing data shows a median -13.7% return from report price to just after catalyst (n=19), so this is the default entry, not Entry 1If dips
Entry 3
$3.00
Deep dip — thesis-intact only; would need burn-rate stabilization confirmed at Nov 12 not to be a red flagDeep dip / thesis intact
✅ Take Profit
TP1
Base — Nov 12 results show the net-loss widening trend stabilizing while the DoD program's monthly cadence keeps scaling. Written against a +72.7pp optimism bias measured on turbo Base scenarios (skill-feedback, n=41); this assumes a ~6-8 week horizon through and just past the Nov 12 print, not the 30-day North Star window
$7.41
+60%
TP2
Bull — breaks back above the 52-week high zone on confirmed bookings conversion plus continued Israeli/APAC design-win traction
$10.65
+130%
TP3 🌙
Moon — the $249M DoD program of record materializes at scale plus new-geography expansion delivers real revenue, comparable to KTOS's +380% contract-driven re-rate
$16.67
+260%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Wider than partnership_win's own medianMAE (-25.9%, n=16, turbo skill-feedback) — a break here ahead of Nov 12 says the market is de-risking before the print
$3.33
-28.1%
Hard Stop
Risk-of-zero territory — coincides with the Bear scenario; would mean the DoD program isn't converting to bookings fast enough to offset the widened loss run-rate
$2.55
-44.9%
Risk / Reward
Entry 2 (dip, ~$4.05 mid) to hard stop vs TP2 (Bull case)
4.4 : 1
⚠ Below the 5:1 turbo target, but the stop is intentionally wider than the laggard catalystType's own measured drawdown — accept the lower ratio rather than tighten the stop into normal noise
📅 Estimate Date
Next Results Update (Q3 2026)
Confirmed per TipRanks — key read is whether the H1 net-loss widening trend is stabilizing as the DoD program's monthly delivery cadence scales
Nov 12, 2026
n/a
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-45%
$2.55
Base
+60%
$7.41
Bull
+130%
$10.65
Moon
+260%
$16.67
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — HIGH

Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution

Rate Outlook
The Fed actually hiked 25bps to 3.75-4.00% on Sept 16, 2026 (unanimous 12-0), reversing the dovish expectations baked into the Aug report — 16 of 18 policymakers see room for at least one more 25bp hike in 2026. Next FOMC is Oct 28, 2026. DoD program-of-record revenue is appropriations-driven and rate-insensitive, but a thinly-traded microcap like MOB is directly exposed to the broad risk-off tone a hawkish, still-hiking Fed creates.
Inflation
The Sept 16 hike itself was explicitly justified by inflation remaining elevated above the 2% target — a materially more hawkish read than the 'weak NFP pulling hike odds down' framing from the prior report.
Sector Impact
Defense budget allocations remain largely insulated from the rate cycle, but MOB's thin liquidity and $60M market cap make it more sensitive to a genuinely hawkish, still-hiking Fed than the underlying DoD program itself would suggest.
Summary
HIGH — the Fed hiked (not held) on Sept 16 with guidance toward more hikes, a real shift from the prior report's dovish-leaning read. The DoD program is structurally macro-independent, but MOB's microcap size and thin liquidity mean this raises real risk-off pressure into the Nov 12 print.
🎯 Analyst Targets

Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels

Consensus (2 analysts)
Strong Buy$11+138%
current price $4.63
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check

Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic

KTOS✅ GoodJan 2026
+380%
in 30 days
Marine Corps Collaborative Combat Aircraft (Valkyrie) selection — DoD program of record win
Closest sector comparable for what a confirmed DoD program-of-record win can do to a defense stock's valuation.
UMAC✅ GoodMay 2026
+52%
in 1 day
Pentagon equity-stake news
Same defense-microcap tier — shows the single-day magnitude a policy/contract headline can produce even without a full program-of-record scale event.
MOB⚡ MixedAug 2026
+6.09%
in 1 day
H1 2026 results — DoD program moves to monthly delivery cadence, revenue +19% YoY, but net loss widens to $6.69M
Own-name precedent: a genuinely positive structural update (monthly delivery cadence) produced a +6.09% day-one pop on 4.5x volume, but the stock fully reversed that and drifted to -9.9% below the report price within seven weeks once the market digested how much net loss widened — the clearest evidence yet that this catalystType needs bookings conversion, not just news flow, to hold a re-rate.
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode

Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.

⚠️

Use this stop-loss set (-28% / -35%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -28.1% / -44.9% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.

📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
Individual headlines have produced single-day pops in the mid-single-digits to +6% range, but have not sustained a re-rate on their ownDays around contract/order announcements, not weeks of positioning

Microcap defense names like MOB continue to react sharply to contract/design-win headlines rather than building slowly pre-earnings — five design-win or order announcements since the Aug 13 print (Aug 5 Israeli Tier-1, Aug 17 tariff/onshore alignment, Sept 14 Asia-Pacific robotics follow-on) produced only brief, fading price support.

🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +380%
range: +50% to +380%· Jan 2026 (KTOS) / Aug 2026 (MOB's own faded pop)
Kratos Defense (KTOS) ran +380% after its Jan 2026 Marine Corps CCA (Valkyrie) program-of-record win — still the clearest same-sector precedent for what a confirmed DoD program-of-record win can do. MOB's own Aug 13 H1 print (revenue +19% YoY, DoD program moving to monthly delivery cadence) produced a same-week +6.09% pop on 4.5x volume but has since faded to a net -9.9% drift by Sept 29 — the market wants bookings conversion outpacing loss growth, not just design-win headlines, to sustain a re-rate.
❌ Catalyst Missavg -35%
range: -20% to -50%· Aug-Sept 2026 (MOB's own post-earnings fade)
No confirmed MOB-specific hard-negative catalyst precedent exists yet, but the post-Aug-13 fade (a +6.09% day-one pop fully reversed and then some within seven weeks) is itself a soft-negative precedent: even a genuinely positive print with real order-flow can't hold a re-rate once net losses widen faster than revenue.
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
2%
of portfolio

partnership_win is turbo's laggard catalystType (-3.8pp median excess vs +2.0pp lane overall, n=16) and H1 net loss widened nearly 100x YoY ($6.69M vs $0.07M) even as the DoD program converts to real revenue — sized down from the prior report's 3% to reflect both the type-level headwind and the execution risk, despite the debt-free balance sheet and 18-25 month runway

🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-28%($3.33)
A break below ~$3.33 ahead of Nov 12 earnings would suggest the market is de-risking the order-flow-vs-loss-widening thesis before the print
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-35%
If Nov 12 results show net losses continuing to widen faster than the DoD program converts to bookings, exit — that is the thesis, not just a stop-loss level
📎 Sources

Generated 2026-09-29 · Not financial advice