📊 Backtest📒 Journal Updated 29/09/2026
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STALE?Report written 7 days ago · at $228.19entry levels may be stale — re-check before acting

NVDA

Core HoldingMEGA CAP
NVIDIA Corporation · NASDAQ · Technology / Semiconductors
$228.19
▲ 1.40%
MCap $5.52T
Up modestly since the Aug 13 report ($224.09); Vera Rubin entered full production, stock +3% on the news, though a minor thermal hiccup on the Rubin chip drew analyst attention
BusinessAI compute monopoly · Blackwell/Vera Rubin GPUs + CUDA lock-in — the toll booth on every hyperscaler capex dollar
Thesis

REFRESH (prior report Aug 13, 2026): Fiscal Q2 FY27 earnings already passed (Aug 26); the live catalyst is Vera Rubin H2 2026 shipments, still dated ~Sep 30. Vera Rubin has entered full production and GF Securities' Jeff Pu raised his target to $345 on rising cloud-provider orders, even after flagging a minor Rubin thermal hiccup. Consensus $327.70 implies +43.6% upside from $228.19. Base case (+25%) assumes the shipment ramp holds and sits above the core lane's realized 14d P75 of +6.6% — the gap reflects the multi-quarter Vera Rubin ramp horizon, not near-term optimism bias.

📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
BUYCore Holding

Measured median at-catalyst return across the core lane is -6.9% (n=54) — buying at today's $228.19 is not the default entry; the $205-212 dip zone is preferred. Vera Rubin's shipment window (~Sep 30) is a confirmation event on a platform already in full production — the thermal hiccup is worth monitoring but hasn't moved sell-side targets down.

87
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
🚀 Vera Rubin H2 2026 Shipments~1 DAY

Vera Rubin, NVIDIA's next-gen AI platform, has entered full production; this window is the first hard confirmation that shipment volumes are tracking the H2 2026 guide. A minor thermal issue on the Rubin chip was flagged but hasn't derailed analyst targets — GF Securities raised to $345 on rising cloud-provider orders.

Sep 30, 2026
🎯 Entry Point
Entry 1
$228.19
Current priceNow
Entry 2PREFERRED
$205–212
Pre-shipment-window dip zoneIf dips
Entry 3
$185.00
Deep dip / near street low $180Broad AI-trade drawdown
✅ Take Profit
TP1
Base case — shipment ramp confirmed on schedule
$285.24
+25%
TP2
Bull case — near-consensus on Jeff Pu's raised target
$330.88
+45%
TP3 🌙
Moon case — Rubin becomes the dominant hyperscaler platform faster than modeled
$410.74
+80%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Wider than the earnings_beat bucket's medianMAE (-9.6%, n=42)
$198.53
-13%
Hard Stop
Near the street low of $180 — signals a broad AI-multiple reset
$178
-22%
Risk / Reward
Tight stop vs TP2, off current price
3.5 : 1
⚠ Strong R/R
📅 Estimate Date
Fiscal Q2 FY27 Earnings (realized)
Already reported — folded into current price/target
Aug 26, 2026
Vera Rubin H2 2026 Shipments
Full production confirmed; this window checks shipment volume
Sep 30, 2026
📈 Stock Timeline
9 snapshots · Jun 21 → Sep 29
Score
▼ 8
76
Jun 21Sep 29
TP2 Target
▲ 28
$330.88
Jun 21Sep 29
Rank
▲ 2
#7
Jun 21Sep 29
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-20%
$182.55
Base
+25%
$285.24
Bull
+45%
$330.88
Moon
+80%
$410.74
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — MEDIUM

Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution

Rate Outlook
Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% on Sep 16, 2026 (first hike since 2023); next FOMC Oct 27-28, 2026 — after the Vera Rubin shipment window.
Inflation
Inflation-driven hike; NVIDIA's enormous free cash flow makes it the most rate-insensitive name in this batch, but the sheer size of its market cap makes it a bellwether for any broad AI-multiple de-rating.
Sector Impact
The entire AI-capex trade is sensitive to a hawkish Fed narrative even when the underlying demand data (like Vera Rubin's order book) stays strong.
Summary
MEDIUM macro risk — NVIDIA's cash generation is effectively rate-immune operationally, but as the largest-weighted AI name, it's the most exposed to a broad multiple reset if the Fed stays hawkish.
🎯 Analyst Targets

Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels

GF Securities (Jeff Pu)
Buy$345+51%
Morgan Stanley
Buy$288+26%
Consensus
Strong Buy$327.7+44%
Street High
Buy$515+126%
Street Low
Hold$180-21%
current price $228.19
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check

Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic

NVDA✅ GoodSep 2026
+3%
in 1 day
Vera Rubin enters full production, stock rebounds
Direct same-company precedent for the Sep 30 shipment-confirmation window
NVDA⚡ MixedSep 2026
+1%
in 1 day
Rubin chip thermal hiccup flagged; analysts raise targets anyway
Shows the stock can absorb minor negative technical news when the demand backdrop (rising cloud-provider orders) stays intact
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode

Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.

⚠️

Use this stop-loss set (-13% / -10%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -13% / -22% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.

📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
+5% to +10%1-2 weeks before the milestone

NVDA drifts up into confirmed production/shipment milestones as hyperscaler order-book commentary builds

🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +6%
range: +3% to +10%· Sep 2026
NVDA rebounded +3% on news that Vera Rubin entered full production; the move is more grind-higher confirmation than a sharp earnings-style pop, consistent with the core lane's earnings_beat bucket avgMaxGain of ~2.7% (n=42).
❌ Catalyst Missavg -9%
range: -5% to -15%· 2026 (category reference)
No sharp single-day Vera Rubin-specific miss identified this cycle; proxied from the earnings_beat bucket's own medianMAE (-9.6%, n=42) as the general downside reference for a shipment-confirmation disappointment.
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
5%
of portfolio

Highest-quality, most liquid name in this batch — the main risk is broad multiple compression, not company-specific execution

🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-13%($198.53)
Below this, the Vera Rubin production-confidence narrative is in question
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-10%
If the thermal issue escalates into a real shipment delay, exit rather than average down
📎 Sources

Generated 2026-09-29 · Not financial advice