📊 Backtest📒 Journal Updated 13/08/2026
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STALE?Report written 9 days ago · at $9.38entry levels may be stale — re-check before acting

ONDS

Speculative
Ondas Holdings Inc. · NASDAQ · Industrials / Defense Drones & Counter-UAS
$9.38
▲ 3.00%
MCap ~$5.35B
Premarket $9.38 (+3.0% vs Friday's $9.11 close) — a fourth-plus straight up session, now +21.6% over the trailing week heading into the Aug 13 print (3 days out). New since the last report: Ondas will provide counter-drone protection for the Jacksonville Jaguars (commercial/venue-security win) and DZYNE was awarded a new $6M AFRL contract — both incremental positives layered on the DZYNE/Barnea momentum already in the stock.
BusinessMulti-domain autonomous defense platform · drone/counter-UAS systems + Sentrycs + DZYNE Technologies forming the Ondas Sentinel division · FY26 revenue guide $525M+ · Q2 2026 earnings Aug 13
Thesis

Ondas keeps grinding higher into its confirmed Aug 13, 2026 Q2 print, now just 3 days out and up 21.6% over the trailing week. Two fresh, real data points since the last report: a new AFRL $6M contract awarded to DZYNE, and a commercial counter-drone deal to protect the Jacksonville Jaguars — both incremental confirmations of the platform-diversification thesis (defense + commercial venue security) rather than one dominant headline. The core near-term question is unchanged and now more urgent: can the company show it's on track for the raised $525M+ FY26 guide (which implies ~$406M of H2 revenue) when it reports in 3 days? Consensus still averages a $19.81 target (~111% upside from here), but the stock is increasingly priced for a clean beat-and-raise.

📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
BUYSpeculative

BUY — DZYNE, the Barnea defense-credibility hire, and now two fresh diversification wins (AFRL, Jacksonville Jaguars) keep the platform-transformation thesis intact, but 44% short interest means volatility cuts both ways into the confirmed Aug 13 print, now just 3 days out. Add on a dip rather than chasing.

93
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
📊 Q2 2026 Earnings — CONFIRMED3 DAYS

Confirmed for Aug 13, 2026, 8:30am ET call — now 3 days out. Market wants to see the raised $525M+ FY26 guide (implying $406M of H2 revenue) validated in reported numbers and order pace, plus management commentary on DZYNE/Sentinel integration and the new AFRL and Jacksonville Jaguars deals.

Aug 13, 2026
🛡️ AFRL $6M Contract (DZYNE) + Jacksonville Jaguars Counter-Drone DealRECENT

New since the last report: the Air Force Research Laboratory awarded DZYNE a $6M contract, and Ondas will provide counter-drone protection for the Jacksonville Jaguars — a commercial/venue-security win that diversifies the revenue base beyond pure defense procurement.

Aug 2026
🛰️ DZYNE Technologies / Ondas Sentinel DivisionONGOING

The $875.8M DZYNE acquisition (closed) remains the structural driver behind the raised FY26 guide — DZYNE alone is expected to add ~$190-191M revenue in 2026 and $300M+ in 2027.

Ongoing
🎯 Entry Point
Entry 1
$9.38
Current price — up a fourth-plus straight session, 3 days before confirmed earningsNow (small)
Entry 2PREFERRED
$7.5–8
Late-Jul/early-Aug consolidation zone before this runIf dips
Entry 3
$5.50
Deep dip — only on a broad drone-defense sector selloff (RCAT-style)Deep dip only
✅ Take Profit
TP1
Base — Q2 earnings confirm the post-DZYNE order pace toward the $406M H2 target
$12.66
+35%
TP2
Bull — clean beat-and-raise, DZYNE synergies show up in guidance, breaks above the 52-week high
$16.42
+75%
TP3 🌙
Moon — order growth + Sentinel integration exceed plan, hits consensus analyst target ($19.81)
$19.79
+111%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Below the pre-run consolidation zone — thesis-neutral but momentum stalling into earnings
$7.2
-23.2%
Hard Stop
Deep breach — order growth stalling, DZYNE integration stumbles, or the $406M H2 target is walked back
$5.5
-41.4%
Risk / Reward
From Entry 2 ($7.75 mid) tight stop vs TP2
9.5 : 1
⚠ High R/R but the stock has already re-rated massively with 44% short interest — size for volatility, and don't chase the fourth straight up day
📅 Estimate Date
Q2 2026 Earnings
CONFIRMED — 8:30am ET call, 3 days out. Market wants the $525M+ FY26 guide (implying $406M H2 revenue) validated
Aug 13, 2026
Watch order pace + Sentinel integration commentary
📈 Stock Timeline
10 snapshots · Jun 26 → Aug 10
Score
▼ 1
74
Jun 26Aug 10
TP2 Target
▲ 0
$16.42
Jun 26Aug 10
Rank
▲ 2
#6
Jun 26Aug 10
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-25%
$7.04
Base
+35%
$12.66
Bull
+75%
$16.42
Moon
+111%
$19.79
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — MEDIUM

Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution

Rate Outlook
Fed held at 3.50-3.75% on Jul 29, 2026 (3 hawkish dissents), though the weak Jul NFP (-23K, Aug 7) has since pulled hike odds down sharply. CPI lands Aug 12, one day before Ondas' own Aug 13 print — a genuine event cluster.
Inflation
Core inflation remains above target — a headwind for high-beta small/mid caps like Ondas even with real fundamental momentum.
Sector Impact
Drone-defense peers have sold off hard on macro + Pentagon budget-timing headwinds even with record backlogs (RCAT -26% in a trailing month) — showing this high-beta sub-sector amplifies broad risk-off moves. Ondas carries the same exposure.
Summary
MEDIUM — Pentagon/defense-contract demand is largely macro-independent, but CPI (Aug 12) lands the day before Ondas' own earnings (Aug 13), stacking two high-stakes events back to back for a stock already carrying 44% short interest.
🎯 Analyst Targets

Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels

H.C. Wainwright
Buy$25+167%
Lake Street Capital
Buy$19+103%
Needham & Company
Buy$17+81%
Consensus average (8 analysts)
Strong Buy$19.81+111%
current price $9.38
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check

Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic

ONDS✅ GoodMay 2026
+26.5%
in 1 day
Q1 2026 earnings: revenue +1,065% YoY, backlog surges to $457M pro forma, FY26 guide raised
Same-company precedent for how the market rewards a confirmed order/revenue beat — directly relevant to the Aug 13 print given the even larger post-DZYNE guide raise now in play.
AVAV✅ GoodJun 2026
+19%
in 1 day
Record Q4 FY26 print + $500M DoD counter-drone contract
Closest sector comparable for how a beat-and-contract-win combination moves a drone-defense name.
RCAT❌ BadJul 2026
-26%
in 30 days
Fell 26% over a month on macro + Pentagon budget-timing headwinds despite record backlogs
Sector risk case — shows the whole drone-defense cohort can sell off hard on macro sentiment alone, independent of company fundamentals; the same risk applies to Ondas around the live Sep FOMC.
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode

Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.

⚠️

Use this stop-loss set (-23% / -20%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -23.2% / -41.4% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.

📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
+21.6% over the trailing week into this cycle's print — above the typical +10-25% pattern1-2 weeks before a confirmed earnings date, momentum builds on contract-win and leadership headlines

Ondas has repeatedly run up into confirmed catalyst dates and contract/leadership headlines rather than a slow multi-week grind — this run (now 21.6% over the trailing week) tracks the Barnea appointment plus the new AFRL/Jaguars deals ahead of the confirmed Aug 13 print.

🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +26%
range: +13% to +30%· May 14, 2026 (ONDS Q1) / Jun 2026 (AVAV sector comp)
Ondas' own Q1 2026 print (May 14, 2026) triggered a +26.5% single-day pop after revenue grew 1,065% YoY; sector comp AeroVironment's Jun 2026 record quarter + $500M DoD contract drove a same-day +19% move.
❌ Catalyst Missavg -20%
range: -15% to -26%· Jul 2026 (RCAT sector comp)
Sector comp Red Cat (RCAT) fell 26% over a trailing month on macro + Pentagon budget-timing headwinds despite record backlogs — shows this sub-sector's downside sensitivity even without a company-specific miss.
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
5%
of portfolio

Small/mid-cap with a CONFIRMED Aug 13 earnings date just 3 days out, a large integrating acquisition, and 44% short interest that can cut violently either direction — 5% keeps meaningful upside exposure while respecting event risk.

🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-23%($7.2)
Below the pre-run consolidation zone ahead of the confirmed Aug 13 print — thesis-neutral but momentum stalling
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-20%
If Q2 results miss the post-DZYNE order pace or the $406M H2 target is walked back, exit — mirrors the sector's guidance-cut drawdown pattern (RCAT)
📎 Sources

Generated 2026-08-10 · Not financial advice