📊 Backtest📒 Journal Updated 29/09/2026
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STALE?Report written 57 days ago · at $24.50entry levels may be stale — re-check before acting

PL

SpeculativeMID CAP
Planet Labs PBC · NYSE · Technology / Space
$24.50
▲ 3.38%
MCap $8.7B
Live price Aug 13 07:49. Prior report (Aug 5) used $22.83 — +7.3% drift in 8 days, which is why this refresh was triggered. Stock is now 16.7% above the preferred entry band, so the setup is worse than the thesis.
BusinessDaily-refresh Earth imaging · Pelican/SuperDove constellations — the data layer under defence & intelligence AI, now growing 42% with D&I up 65%
Thesis

Planet's Q1 FY2027 was a genuine inflection: record revenue of $94.2M, up 42% YoY, driven by defence & intelligence contracts growing over 65%. That shifts the story from 'imagery subscriptions with slow growth' to 'defence data supplier with government budget behind it'. Consensus sits around $35.36 across 10 analysts (median $38 on a narrower 5-analyst set, range $22-$53) — roughly +44% from here. The catch is entry, not thesis: the stock has run 7.3% in eight days and now trades 16.7% above the $19-21 zone the last report set. Q2 FY2027 earnings on Sep 8 is the next test.

📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
BUYSpeculative

Thesis strong, price isn't — wait for $21-22.5 rather than chasing 16.7% above zone into a Sep 8 print.

85
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
📊 Q2 FY2027 Earnings26 DAYS

The print that has to confirm Q1 wasn't a one-off. Watch whether defence & intelligence holds anywhere near +65% growth and whether the Pelican Gen-2 ramp shows up in guidance rather than commentary.

Sep 8, 2026
🛰️ Pelican Gen-2 Fleet BuildoutONGOING

Higher-resolution Pelican satellites entering service raise revenue per customer without a matching cost step. Continuous rollout rather than a dated event — it shows up in margins, not headlines.

Ongoing
🎯 Entry Point
Entry 1
$24.50
Current price — 16.7% above the preferred zone, chasingNot preferred
Entry 2PREFERRED
$21–22.5
Give back the recent run; where R/R turns favourable againIf dips
Entry 3
$19.00
Pre-earnings flush or a broad space-sector drawdownDeep dip
✅ Take Profit
TP1
Base — D&I growth holds, market pays for the inflection
$29.89
+22%
TP2
Consensus target across 10 analysts
$35.36
+44.3%
TP3 🌙
Toward the upper analyst band on sustained 40%+ growth · 2027
$39.94
+63%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Set wider than the measured core medianMAE of -14% per the stop rule — a tighter stop on a name that fell 37% on a past print is just paying the spread
$20.8
-15.1%
Hard Stop
Below the deep-dip entry; would signal the D&I growth story is being repriced
$18.4
-24.9%
Risk / Reward
Tight stop (-15.1%) vs TP2 (+44.3%)
2.9 : 1
⚠ Healthy R/R, but measured from the $21-22.5 entry — not from $24.50
📅 Estimate Date
Q2 FY2027 Earnings
D&I growth rate is the number that matters
Sep 8, 2026
est. revenue ~$98-102M
Pelican Gen-2 milestones
Capacity additions feeding FY2028 revenue
H2 2026
n/a
📈 Stock Timeline
3 snapshots · Jul 10 → Aug 13
Score
▼ 2
74
Jul 10Aug 13
TP2 Target
▼ 2
$35.36
Jul 10Aug 13
Rank
▼ 2
#8
Jul 10Aug 13
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-30%
$17.15
Base
+22%
$29.89
Bull
+44.3%
$35.36
Moon
+63%
$39.94
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — MEDIUM

Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution

Rate Outlook
Fed funds 3.50-3.75%, held Jul 29 with three dissents favouring a hike. Next FOMC Sep 16, eight days after PL's earnings.
Inflation
July CPI (Aug 12) headline 3.4% vs 3.5% prior, core 2.5%, +0.1% m/m — soft print, easing hike pressure after payrolls came in at -23k.
Sector Impact
MEDIUM rather than LOW: PL is an unprofitable long-duration growth name, so it carries rate sensitivity that a profitable defence supplier wouldn't. Offsetting that, its revenue base is government defence spending, which is far less rate-sensitive than commercial demand.
Summary
MEDIUM — long-duration valuation risk, partly offset by a government-funded revenue base.
🎯 Analyst Targets

Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels

Consensus (10 analysts)
Buy$35.36+44%
Median (5-analyst set)
Buy$38+55%
Street high
Buy$53+116%
Street low
Hold$22-10%
current price $24.50
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check

Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic

PL❌ BadJun 2026
-37%
in 1 day
Quarterly print missed expectations
Same ticker, same catalyst type, two quarters ago. The single most relevant case: PL is priced for growth and punishes a miss violently.
MU✅ GoodJun 2026
+15%
in 2 days
Earnings beat with strong forward guidance
Comparable magnitude for a data/infrastructure name beating into a strong demand cycle — the realistic upside shape, not a moonshot.
RKLB⚡ MixedAug 2026
+6%
in 1 day
Q2 2026 earnings
Closest space-sector comparable this cycle. A beat produced only +6% — evidence that space names now need more than an in-line beat to move.
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode

Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.

⚠️

Use this stop-loss set (-15.1% / -25%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -15.1% / -24.9% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.

📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
+7% to +15%2-4 สัปดาห์ก่อนงบ

PL has already run 7.3% in the eight days since the last report and sits well above its entry zone, so the pre-earnings drift is largely spent. The feedback prior's earnings_beat bucket (n=42, medianExcessVsBenchPct +1.8 vs +1.4 overall) is unremarkable — no tier-2 action, this type is neither leader nor laggard.

🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +15%
range: +8% to +20%· Jun 2026
Space/data comparables on a beat: MU +15% (Jun 2026) and RKLB +6% (Aug 2026) bracket the realistic range. PL's own upside case needs D&I growth to hold near 65%.
❌ Catalyst Missavg -30%
range: -20% to -37%· Jun 2026
PL's own Jun 2026 print took it down 37% — this stock has a demonstrated habit of punishing a miss hard, which is why the entry zone matters more than usual.
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
3%
of portfolio

Cut from 3% held flat rather than raised: thesis improved but entry got materially worse. Chasing 16.7% above zone into a name with a -37% precedent doesn't earn a larger position.

🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-15.1%($20.8)
A break here before Sep 8 means the D&I re-rating is unwinding
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-25%
On a D&I growth miss, exit — the entire re-rating rests on that line item
📎 Sources

Generated 2026-08-13 · Not financial advice