📊 Backtest📒 Journal Updated 13/08/2026
← ⚡ Catalyst
📐 Simulate Position
STALE?Report written 17 days ago · at $144.45entry levels may be stale — re-check before acting

PLTR

SpeculativeMEGA CAP
Palantir Technologies, Inc. · NASDAQ · Technology / AI Software
$144.45
▲ 15.00%
MCap $346B
Q2 2026 blowout — revenue $1.94B (+93% YoY) vs $1.81B est., EPS $0.41 vs $0.35 est., US commercial +149% YoY — sent shares +15% after-hours from the $125.65 close as FY26 guide was raised to $8.15–8.16B (from $7.65–7.66B). Watch premarket follow-through into the Aug 4 regular session.
BusinessAI Operating System for Government + Enterprise · AIP boot camps → high conversion · Pentagon/Army/DHS/USDA AI contract dominance + fast-growing US commercial book
Thesis

Palantir just posted its strongest quarter yet — 93% YoY revenue growth, a 155% Rule-of-40 score, and a ~$500M FY guidance raise — breaking the prior 3-quarter sell-the-news pattern with a +15% after-hours pop. But that pop compresses upside to the $182 Street consensus to roughly +26%, under our 30% conviction bar, while the stock still trades near 70x forward earnings. Fundamentals are excellent; the entry price is no longer cheap.

📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
HOLDSpeculative

PLTR just delivered its best quarter yet (93% rev growth, guide raised ~$500M) and popped +15% after-hours — but upside to the $182 consensus has compressed to ~26%, under our conviction bar. HOLD at $144: let the post-earnings dust settle and add on a pullback toward $125–130 rather than chasing the gap.

68
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
📊 Q2 2026 Earnings — Beat & RaiseJUST REPORTED

Revenue $1.94B (+93% YoY) vs $1.81B consensus; adj. EPS $0.41 vs $0.35 est.; US commercial revenue +149% YoY. FY26 guide raised to $8.15–8.16B from $7.65–7.66B. Rule of 40 = 155%. Shares +15% after-hours.

Aug 3, 2026
📊 Q3 2026 Earnings (next print)~90 DAYS

Next scheduled report. Watch for whether the guide-raise momentum holds, US commercial growth stays >100% YoY, and if the post-Q2 pop gets faded or extended.

Nov 2, 2026
🪖 US Army NGC2 — Foundry as Core Data LayerRECENT

Army selected Palantir Foundry as the cloud data layer for its top-priority Next Generation Command & Control modernization program, moving from prototype to Army-wide deployment. Validated at Project Convergence-Capstone 6 (Fort Irwin, Jul 20–29).

Jul 2026
🤝 NVIDIA Sovereign AI PartnershipONGOING

Joint initiative running NVIDIA AI + Nemotron models inside Palantir's secure environments for sovereign government and critical-infrastructure workloads — expands AIP's addressable market beyond the US.

Jun 2026
🎯 Entry Point
Entry 1
$144.00
Current — right after the +15% post-earnings pop; chasing riskNow (small/no add)
Entry 2PREFERRED
$125–130
Pre-earnings close zone — ideal pullback/gap-fill entryIf it fades back
Entry 3
$108.00
Near 52-week low support ($106.37) — deep dip onlyDeep macro selloff
✅ Take Profit
TP1
Near-term continuation above the post-earnings gap
$160
+10.8%
TP2
Hits Street consensus target
$182
+26%
TP3 🌙
Bull re-rating toward high-end analyst targets ($200–255)
$225
+55.7%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Below pre-earnings close = the post-earnings pop has fully faded
$125
-13.5%
Hard Stop
52-week low breach = thesis broken
$106
-26.6%
Risk / Reward
Tight stop vs TP2, measured from the preferred Entry 2 zone
1.9 : 1
⚠ Upside to consensus is now under the 30% bar — don't chase the gap; R/R only works from a pullback entry
📅 Estimate Date
Q2 2026 Earnings (reported)
Beat: $1.94B rev (+93% YoY) vs $1.81B est.; EPS $0.41 vs $0.35 est.; US commercial +149% YoY
Aug 3, 2026
actual: $1.94B rev / $0.41 EPS
FY2026 Revenue Guidance (raised)
Raised from prior $7.65–7.66B guide; US commercial now guided >$3.42B, up from prior >$3.22B
Current: $8.15–8.16B
$8.15B FY guide
Q3 2026 Earnings (est.)
Watch whether guide-raise momentum holds and US commercial growth stays >100% YoY
~Nov 2, 2026
consensus ~$2.0–2.1B rev (est.)
📈 Stock Timeline
3 snapshots · Jun 22 → Aug 4
Score
▼ 6
70
Jun 22Aug 4
TP2 Target
▲ 17
$182
Jun 22Aug 4
Rank
▼ 8
#16
Jun 22Aug 4
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-18%
$118
Base
+11%
$160
Bull
+26%
$182
Moon
+56%
$225
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — MEDIUM

Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution

Rate Outlook
Fed has held 3.50–3.75% through mid-2026; the latest FOMC dot plot shows just one cut in 2026 (to ~3.44%) and one more in 2027 — a more hawkish path than markets had hoped, keeping pressure on long-duration, high-multiple software names.
Inflation
Core inflation still running above target. Government contracts (a large share of PLTR revenue) are largely inflation-insulated, but continued Fed hawkishness raises the effective discount rate applied to PLTR's 70x+ forward earnings.
Sector Impact
AI-software valuations are broadly under scrutiny for being stretched relative to an elevated cost of capital. PLTR's blowout Q2 print bucks that narrative on hard fundamentals, but the whole group remains rate-sensitive to any further hawkish repricing.
Summary
MEDIUM — a hawkish Fed dot plot (only one cut projected in 2026) pressures high-multiple AI software broadly. PLTR's Q2 beat-and-raise provides a fundamental offset, but doesn't eliminate multiple-compression risk if rate expectations shift further hawkish.
🎯 Analyst Targets

Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels

S&P Global Consensus (32 analysts)
Buy$182+26%
Rosenblatt Securities (John McPeake)
Buy$225+56%
Oppenheimer (Martin Yang)
Buy$200+38%
DA Davidson (Gil Luria) — upgraded Hold→Buy
Buy$175+21%
RBC Capital (Rishi Jaluria)
Sell$90-38%
current price $144.45
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check

Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic

PLTR✅ GoodAug 2026
+15%
in 1 day
Q2 2026 earnings — 93% YoY revenue growth, Rule of 40 = 155%, ~$500M FY guide raise
Broke the prior 3-quarter sell-the-news pattern with the strongest post-earnings pop of PLTR's current cycle — the print itself (not just the beat) drove the move via the sharp FY26 guidance raise.
PLTR⚡ MixedMay 2026
-6.93%
in 1 day
Q1 2026 earnings — beat on revenue but guide raise seen as too modest
A cautionary comparable in the same name: even a genuine beat can sell off when expectations are priced to perfection and the raise doesn't clear an elevated bar.
SNOW✅ GoodMar 2025
+18%
in 3 days
FY2025 Q4 earnings — AI platform adoption inflection beat
Enterprise AI platform inflection beat comparable to PLTR's AIP flywheel — beat + guided revenue acceleration produced a sustained multi-day rally, similar to the pattern PLTR just showed in Q2 2026.
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode

Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.

⚠️

Use this stop-loss set (-13% / -15%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -13.5% / -26.6% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.

📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
+2% to +5%1–2 weeks before earnings, muted

PLTR typically drifts flat-to-slightly-up into earnings on elevated expectations rather than building a large pre-print run; the actual print — not positioning — drives the move. Q2 2026 saw only a modest pre-announcement pop before the real +15% move came after the beat itself.

🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +10%
range: +6.9% to +15%· Aug 2026
3 of the last 4 quarters produced day-of/after-hours gains (Q2 2025 +7.85%, Q4 2025 +6.85%, Q2 2026 +15%), breaking the earlier 'sell-the-news' pattern. Q2 2026 (Aug 3, 2026) was the strongest: 93% YoY revenue growth + a ~$500M FY guide raise.
❌ Catalyst Missavg -6.9%
range: -6.9% to -6.9%· May 2026
Q1 2026 (May 4, 2026) beat on revenue but shares still fell -6.93% as the guidance raise was seen as too modest relative to sky-high expectations — the lone miss-reaction in an otherwise strong run.
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
4%
of portfolio

Even after the Q2 blowout, upside to the $182 Street consensus has compressed to ~26% — below the 30% margin-of-safety bar — while the stock still trades near 70x forward earnings. Execution quality (93% rev growth, Rule of 40 = 155%) supports holding, not chasing an aggressive new entry at post-pop prices. Keep to 3–4% of portfolio.

🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-13%($125)
Below pre-earnings close = the post-pop momentum has fully faded and the thesis needs review
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-15%
If the Q3 guide disappoints or US commercial growth decelerates meaningfully below 100% YoY, exit within 2–3 sessions
📎 Sources

Generated 2026-08-04 · Not financial advice