FRESHReport written today · at $19.98

QBTS

SpeculativeMID CAP

D-Wave Quantum Inc. · NASDAQ · Technology / Quantum Computing

$19.98

▲ 10.51%

MCap $7.40B

Closed $19.98 on Aug 3, 2026 (+10.51%), riding the July 27 AT&T-deal/Nasdaq-uplisting rally into the Aug 6 Q2 print — 52-week range $12.75–$46.75

BusinessQuantum annealing pioneer · Commercial QCaaS + on-prem Advantage2 systems, expanding into gate-model computing via the Quantum Circuits acquisition — AT&T and Nasdaq Verafin enterprise wins signal early real-world commercial traction

Thesis

D-Wave is the highest-momentum name in the quantum-computing trio (QBTS/IONQ/RGTI) heading into an earnings-dense week, fresh off a 20% pop on an expanded AT&T network-optimization deal and a July 27 NYSE-to-Nasdaq uplisting. Q2 2026 results on Aug 6 are a binary catalyst: the stock has shown it can rally hard even on a revenue miss (May 2026, +62% over the following week on record bookings) or sell off the next session on a clean miss (Feb 2026, -6.75%). At ~600x TTM sales with a -$368M TTM net loss, this is a sizing-disciplined speculative trade on commercial-traction momentum, not a valuation call.

📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding

SPECULATIVESpeculative

High-conviction momentum story into a binary Aug 6 catalyst — size small (3-5%), let the AT&T/Nasdaq halo run into consensus targets, but respect the tight stop given QBTS has produced both +62% weekly rallies AND next-day -6.75% drops off Q4/Q1 2026 prints.

73

score / 100 ⓘ

⚡ Catalyst

📊 Q2 FY2026 Earnings2 DAYS

Pre-market report + 8am ET call with CEO Alan Baratz and CFO John Markovich. Consensus EPS -$0.08 (vs -$0.55 YoY), revenue +23.3% YoY. Company guided revenue 'modestly higher' than Q1's $2.9M, with most of FY2026's $43.9M consensus revenue weighted to H2 — bookings trajectory and H2 guidance will matter more than the headline print.

Aug 6, 2026

🤝 AT&T Network-Operations ExpansionRECENT

AT&T signed an agreement to expand D-Wave's annealing quantum tech into agentic-AI network tools — a workload that cut processing time from ~1 hour to <15 seconds (240x). Stock closed +20.36% same day, coinciding with the Nasdaq listing debut.

Jul 27, 2026

🏦 Nasdaq Verafin PartnershipONGOING

Financial-crime detection unit Nasdaq Verafin partnership adds a second named enterprise logo alongside AT&T, reinforcing the commercial-adoption thesis ahead of Q2 bookings disclosure.

Jul 2026

🎯 Entry Point

Entry 1

$19.98

Current price — entering 2 days ahead of a binary earnings catalyst; high volatility risk either directionNow

Entry 2PREFERRED

$15.5–17

Post-earnings dip zone if Q2 repeats a revenue-miss reaction (Q4 2025 precedent: -6.75% next session)If post-earnings dip

Entry 3

$13.00

Deep retest near 52-week low $12.75 — only if AT&T/Nasdaq momentum thesis breaks down entirelyDeep dip only

✅ Take Profit

TP1

Near-term re-rate if Q2 bookings/guidance echo Q1's strength

$25

+25.1%

TP2

Street consensus target zone (Cantor/Evercore/Benchmark cluster $35-40)

$37

+85.2%

TP3 🌙

Moon case near 52-week high $46.75 and Street high target $45

$45

+125.3%

🔴 Stop Loss

Tight Stop

Below the AT&T-rally consolidation base

$16.5

-17.4%

Hard Stop

52-week low breach — AT&T/Nasdaq momentum thesis invalidated

$12.75

-36.2%

Risk / Reward

Tight stop vs TP2 consensus target

2.1 : 1

⚠ Acceptable R/R given binary catalyst — size small

📅 Estimate Date

Q2 FY2026 Earnings

Watch bookings run-rate + H2 revenue guidance more than the EPS/revenue print itself

Aug 6, 2026 (pre-market)

EPS est. -$0.08, Rev +23% YoY

FY2026 Full Year

Revenue consensus raised $43.0M→$43.9M; EPS estimate cut -$0.251→-$0.394 over past 60 days

Consensus

Rev ~$43.9M, EPS -$0.39

📈 Stock Timeline

1 snapshot · Aug 4

First snapshot — check back next week

Score

62

Aug 4

TP2 Target

$37

Aug 4

Rank

#31

Aug 4

📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread

Bear

-35%

$13

Base

+15%

$23

Bull

+88%

$37.5

Moon

+130%

$46

← downsideupside →

🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — HIGH

Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution

Rate Outlook

Fed held in July; September FOMC is now a near coin-flip with hike odds near 60% (down from ~79% mid-week) as inflation concerns linger — a hawkish surprise would hit unprofitable, high-multiple names like QBTS hardest.

Inflation

Persistent inflation is keeping hike risk on the table for 2026 rather than the cuts many expected earlier in the year; 9 of 18 FOMC officials have penciled in at least one hike this year per the June dot plot discussion.

Sector Impact

Speculative, pre-profit quantum-computing names (QBTS, IONQ, RGTI) are high-beta, negative-FCF, and trade on forward-narrative multiples — the group shed roughly 30% of market cap over the month before this AT&T-driven bounce, illustrating how fast sentiment can reverse.

Summary

Fed risk skews HIGH for QBTS specifically: a hawkish September FOMC signal could compound any Aug 6 earnings disappointment, while a dovish surprise would amplify the AT&T/Nasdaq-driven momentum already priced into the stock.

🎯 Analyst Targets

Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels

Cantor Fitzgerald

Strong Buy$40+100%

Evercore ISI

Outperform$37+85%

Benchmark

Strong Buy$35+75%

Street Consensus (15 analysts)

Strong Buy$37+85%

current price $19.98

🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check

Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic

QBTS✅ GoodMay 2026

+62%

in 5 days

Q1 2026 earnings — EPS beat, revenue miss, but record $33.4M bookings

Direct precedent from the same company: an initial -10.8% pre-market drop on a revenue miss fully reversed into a +61.6% weekly rally once bookings strength registered — the closest analog for how Aug 6 could play out even if headline revenue disappoints.

QBTS❌ BadFeb 2026

-7%

in 1 day

Q4 2025 earnings — EPS and revenue miss

Initial +2.5% pop on guidance optimism reversed to -6.75% the next session once the size of the miss was digested — shows the market can take a day to properly price a clean miss.

RGTI✅ GoodJul 2026

+12%

in 1 day

HPE/PSC 'TangleLab' quantum-computing partnership announcement

Comparable partnership-driven catalyst in the same quantum-computing peer group — confirms partnership news alone can move the group double-digits in a single day, supporting the read-through from QBTS's own AT&T deal into sector sentiment ahead of earnings.

⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay

🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode

Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.

⚠️

Use this stop-loss set (-12% / -15%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -17.4% / -36.2% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.

📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern

+10% to +20%1–2 weeks before event

QBTS and quantum-computing peers have shown strong pre-earnings run-ups on momentum/partnership news; QBTS itself rallied +20.4% on July 27 (AT&T deal + Nasdaq uplisting), and IONQ/RGTI/QBTS each gained 7-10% in the session ahead of their Aug 5-6 earnings week amid a broader quantum-sector bounce.

🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move

✅ Catalyst Winavg +26%

range: +15% to +62%· May 12-19, 2026

QBTS's Q1 2026 print (May 12, 2026) initially fell -10.8% pre-market on a revenue miss, but the stock rallied +61.6% over the following week as investors focused on record $33.4M bookings (+1,994% YoY) and a Fortune 100 QCaaS win — sentiment flipped fast on forward bookings even after a headline miss.

❌ Catalyst Missavg -8%

range: -7% to -11%· Feb 26-27, 2026

QBTS's Q4 2025 print (Feb 26, 2026) missed both EPS (-$0.12 vs -$0.05 est) and revenue (-33% miss); shares initially popped +2.5% to $20.14 on guidance optimism, then reversed to close -6.75% at $18.78 the next session as the miss sank in.

💼Spot Position Sizing

How the recommended % is derived

3%

of portfolio

Binary earnings catalyst in 2 days on a high-beta small-cap with -$1.08 TTM EPS and thin $12.4M TTM revenue — size small given the historical post-earnings whipsaw seen in both directions across QBTS's 2026 prints

🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade

Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding

Before Catalyst

-12%($17.6)

Below the AT&T-rally consolidation base — would suggest the AT&T/Nasdaq momentum thesis is stalling ahead of the print

After Catalyst (Bad Result)-15%

If Q2 revenue misses without offsetting bookings/guidance strength, exit within 1-2 sessions rather than waiting for a Q1-style rebound

📎 Sources

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260727804891/en/ATT-Signs-Agreement-to-Expand-Use-of-D-Waves-Quantum-Computing-Technology-Across-Network-Operations https://thequantuminsider.com/2026/07/23/d-wave-quantum-to-report-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-on-august-6-2026/https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/qbts/https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/evercore-isi-lowers-its-price-target-on-d-wave-quantum-inc-qbts-to-42-and-maintains-an-outperform-rating-1709927/https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/d-wave-stock-skyrockets-62-190000077.html https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8980165/dwave-quantum-qbts-shares-jump-13-on-att-partnership-announcement?mobile=true https://www.dwavequantum.com/company/newsroom/press-release/d-wave-announces-transfer-of-stock-exchange-listing-to-nasdaq/https://coincentral.com/rigetti-computing-rgti-stock-jumps-12-on-hpe-quantum-partnership-and-nsf-grant/https://www.tipranks.com/news/ionq-vs-rgti-vs-qbts-which-quantum-computing-stock-does-analysts-like-most-ahead-of-earnings https://www.kavout.com/market-lens/why-did-d-wave-quantum-s-q4-miss-fail-to-spook-investors

Generated 2026-08-04 · Not financial advice