📊 Backtest📒 Journal Updated 29/09/2026
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STALE?Report written 62 days ago · at $7.72entry levels may be stale — re-check before acting

QUBT

MoonshotMID CAP
Quantum Computing Inc. · NASDAQ · Technology / Quantum Computing
$7.72
▼ 2.10%
MCap $2.4B
Off its June highs (~$8.75) heading into the Aug 10 print, after a volatile summer typical of the quantum-computing group
BusinessQuantum computing · Photonic quantum hardware (Dirac systems) and foundry (Luminar Semiconductor acquisition) — $1.4B cash chest funding an aggressive build-out into the 2026 'quantum advantage' narrative
Thesis

QUBT reports Q2 2026 earnings on Aug 10 with consensus modeling roughly 7,700%+ YoY revenue growth off a tiny base — the number itself is nearly guaranteed to look spectacular. The real question is guidance: Q1 2026 was a clean beat ($3.7M revenue vs $39K a year earlier) yet shares barely moved because a 36% pre-earnings run-up had already priced it in and management gave no forward outlook. Sector peer Rigetti hit the same wall in May 2026 — beat estimates, still fell -7% same day. QUBT sits on $1.4B in cash with minimal debt, so survival isn't the risk; the risk is another guidance-less 'beat and stall' that leaves the stock exactly where it started. A real leg higher likely needs QUBT's first-ever formal FY guidance or a disclosed commercial contract alongside the print.

📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
SPECULATIVEMoonshot

Moderate-small starter position ahead of Aug 10 — well-capitalized so survival isn't the risk, but beats without guidance have gone nowhere twice already this year in this sector

60
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
⚛️ Q2 2026 earnings — Aug 10~1 WEEK

Revenue expected to grow 7,700%+ YoY off a small base; the real swing factor is whether QUBT issues its first-ever formal FY guidance or discloses a commercial contract

Aug 10, 2026
🎯 Entry Point
Entry 1
$7.72
Current price, pre-earningsNow
Entry 2PREFERRED
$6.2–6.6
Dip zone ahead of Aug 10If dips
Entry 3
$5.00
Deep dip if the quantum group sells off hardIf sector selloff
✅ Take Profit
TP1
Base case — solid beat, partial guidance color
$11.19
+45%
TP2
Bull case — beat + first-ever formal FY guidance issued
$18.53
+140%
TP3 🌙
Moon case · guidance beats expectations + a disclosed commercial contract win
$28.56
+270%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Below this, the pre-earnings run-up has already reversed
$6.33
-18%
Hard Stop
A sector-wide de-rating scenario, in line with prior 50%+ drawdowns
$5.02
-35%
Risk / Reward
Convex given the cash cushion, but only pays off if guidance actually shows up
8 : 1 (vs TP2)
⚠ Quantum names move 10-15% on no news — expect noise around any stop
📅 Estimate Date
Q2 2026 earnings
Consensus expects 7,700%+ YoY revenue growth off a small base; watch for first-ever FY guidance
Aug 10, 2026
+7,700% YoY rev.
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-35%
$5.02
Base
+45%
$11.19
Bull
+140%
$18.53
Moon
+270%
$28.56
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — MEDIUM

Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution

Rate Outlook
Fed held at 3.50-3.75% on Jul 29 with 3 hawkish dissents favoring a hike — rate-hike tail risk into year-end hasn't gone away
Inflation
Core PCE still 3.3% YoY, well above the 2% target
Sector Impact
Growth/speculative tech like quantum computing is rate-sensitive, but the Aug 10 print and guidance dominate the near-term stock story far more than macro
Summary
Macro risk is secondary here — Aug 10 earnings and whether guidance finally shows up is what moves this stock
🎯 Analyst Targets

Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels

Street consensus
Hold$8.5+10%
current price $7.72
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check

Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic

IONQ✅ GoodMay 2026
+21%
in 7 days
Q1 2026 record revenue report (+755% YoY, RPO +554% YoY)
Strong top-line growth and a record backlog drove a real re-rate — the kind of outcome QUBT bulls are hoping Aug 10 delivers.
RGTI❌ BadMay 2026
-7%
in 1 day
Q1 2026 earnings beat but no forward guidance
Beat estimates yet still sold off -7% same day — shows how unforgiving this sector is toward beats that don't come with guidance.
QUBT⚡ MixedMay 2026
-0.4%
in 1 day
Q1 2026 earnings beat (revenue $3.7M vs $39K prior year), no forward guidance
QUBT's own most recent earnings reaction — a clean beat still produced only a flat/slightly-down move because the 36% pre-earnings run-up had already priced it in.
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode

Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.

⚠️

Use this stop-loss set (-15% / -25%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -18% / -35% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.

📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
+20% to +40%2-4 weeks before earnings

Quantum-sector names run up hard into earnings on positioning — QUBT itself rallied 36% in the month before its Q1 2026 report

🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +10%
range: -7% to +25%· May 2026 (QUBT / RGTI)
The sector's own recent pattern is a warning: both QUBT (May 2026) and Rigetti (May 2026) beat estimates but still traded flat-to-down because gains were already priced in and no forward guidance came with the beat — a real pop here likely needs QUBT's first-ever formal FY guidance, not just another beat
❌ Catalyst Missavg -30%
range: -15% to -50%· 2025-2026 (sector pattern)
Quantum stocks 'routinely move 10-15% on no news' and have seen 50%+ drawdowns repeatedly through 2025-2026 when sentiment turns
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
4%
of portfolio

Well-capitalized ($1.4B cash) so survival isn't the risk, but the sector's own recent earnings reactions show beats alone don't guarantee a pop — size moderate-small for a guidance-dependent binary

🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-15%($6.56)
Below this, the pre-earnings run-up has already reversed heading into Aug 10
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-25%
If Aug 10 repeats the guidance-less sell-the-news pattern with a deeper drop this time, exit rather than wait for the next catalyst
📎 Sources

Generated 2026-08-04 · Not financial advice