STALE?Report written 15 days ago · at $3.18entry levels may be stale — re-check before acting
RXRX
ค่าขนมSMALL CAP
Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. · NASDAQ · Healthcare / AI Drug Discovery (TechBio)
$3.18
▲ 6.00%
MCap $1.69B
Near the bottom of its 52-week range ($2.77-$7.18) and below its 200-day moving average heading into Q2 2026 earnings (tomorrow, Aug 5, before market open). Stock fell 16.89% in the past month on a mid-July trial-data scare + insider Form 144 filing, but Morgan Stanley just raised its target to $5.50 (from $5.00) and ARK Invest bought 260,000 shares — real disagreement between bears and bulls right into the print.
BusinessAI-driven drug discovery (TechBio) · REC-4881 in FDA registrational-pathway discussions for familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) · partnered with Sanofi/Roche ($500M+ milestones delivered) · Q2 2026 earnings due Aug 5, 2026
Thesis
Recursion reports Q2 2026 results tomorrow (Aug 5, before the open) — a binary near-term event for a stock that swung +7.6% to +13.3% on its last earnings beat (May 6) and -7.9% on a mid-July trial-data scare plus an insider Form 144 filing. The core thesis is unchanged: REC-4881 has FDA engagement underway on a registrational pathway for FAP (update expected 2H26), the Sanofi/Roche partnered pipeline has delivered $500M+ in milestones, and cash runway is guided into early 2028. But short interest sits at ~35% and the stock trades near its 52-week low despite Morgan Stanley just lifting its target to $5.50 and ARK Invest adding 260,000 shares. Analyst consensus is $7.25 (+128% from here), with a wide $3-$11 range reflecting real disagreement, not noise.
📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
SPECULATIVEค่าขนม
SPECULATIVE — hold sizing small ahead of tomorrow's binary earnings print; add on post-earnings weakness rather than chasing a beat. Real bear case (short interest, insider selling, unresolved July trial-data question) sits alongside a real bull case (MS target hike, ARK buying, FDA pathway progress).
85
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
📊 Q2 2026 EarningsTOMORROW
Business updates and financial results before market open. Analysts model EPS of -$0.24. Market will watch for cash-runway confirmation, Sanofi/Roche milestone updates, and any commentary on the FDA registrational-pathway discussions for REC-4881.
Aug 5, 2026
🧬 REC-4881 FDA Registrational Pathway UpdateH2 2026
Recursion has guided to an FDA update on the potential registrational study design/pathway for REC-4881 in FAP, following the positive TUPELO Phase 1b/2 data (75% of evaluable patients with reduced polyp burden, 43% median reduction at 12 weeks).
H2 2026
🎯 Entry Point
Entry 1
$3.18
Current price — binary earnings event is tomorrow morning; only size small pre-printNow (small, pre-earnings)
Entry 2PREFERRED
$2.8–2.95
Near the 52-week-low zone — best R/R if earnings/trial-data overhang pressures the stock post-printIf dips post-earnings
Entry 3
$2.30
Deep capitulation — only on an earnings miss + cash-runway scare or broad biotech selloffDeep dip only
✅ Take Profit
TP1
Base — in-line Q2 print, cash runway to 2028 reaffirmed
$3.85
+21.1%
TP2
Bull — hits the Morgan Stanley target on a clean earnings beat + FDA pathway clarity
$5.5
+73%
TP3 🌙
Moon — hits analyst consensus as the AI-drug-discovery thesis broadly re-rates
$7.25
+128%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Below the 52-week-low zone — a fresh low post-earnings would confirm the bear case is winning
$2.65
-16.7%
Hard Stop
Deep breach — cash-runway concerns or a failed FDA pathway update materializing
$2
-37.1%
Risk / Reward
From current price ($3.18), tight stop vs TP2 ($5.50)
4.4 : 1
⚠ Good R/R on paper, but tomorrow's earnings is a real binary event with ~35% short interest — size for genuine two-sided volatility, not just the bull case
📅 Estimate Date
Q2 2026 Earnings
Cash runway confirmation + Sanofi/Roche milestone update is the swing factor
Aug 5, 2026
EPS est. -$0.24
REC-4881 FDA Pathway Update
Registrational study design guidance for FAP
H2 2026
Guidance only, no fixed date yet
📈 Stock Timeline
5 snapshots · Jun 30 → Aug 4
Score
▼ 2
55
Jun 30Aug 4
TP2 Target
▼ 1
$5.5
Jun 30Aug 4
Rank
#15
Jun 30Aug 4
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-28%
$2.3
Base
+21%
$3.85
Bull
+73%
$5.5
Moon
+128%
$7.25
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — LOW
Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution
Rate Outlook
Fed holds at 3.50-3.75% under Chair Warsh; next FOMC decision is Sep 15-16, 2026, with the committee split between a pause and a further 2026 hike.
Inflation
Core inflation remains sticky above target and the 10-year yield is elevated — a general headwind for pre-profitability biotech capital costs, though Recursion's Sanofi/Roche milestone cash flow reduces reliance on capital markets somewhat.
Sector Impact
Clinical-stage biotech catalysts (earnings, FDA pathway updates) are largely macro-independent in direction — tomorrow's print and the FDA update will move the stock far more than any Fed signal between now and September.
Summary
LOW — the near-term catalyst calendar (earnings tomorrow, FDA update in H2) is clinical/financial-results-driven rather than rate-sensitive, though the broader pre-profitability biotech sector still carries some risk-appetite sensitivity heading into the Sep 15-16 FOMC.
🎯 Analyst Targets
Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels
Consensus (5-6 analysts)
Buy$7.25+128%
Morgan Stanley
Buy$5.5+73%
LSEG high-end outlier
n/a$11+246%
LSEG low-end
n/a$3-6%
current price $3.18
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check
Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic
ABSI✅ GoodJun 2026
+36%
in 1 day
Eli Lilly-backed $100M equity offering following positive ABS-201 alopecia proof-of-concept data
Direct AI-drug-discovery peer — shows how sharply the sector re-rates when a major pharma partner puts real capital behind a platform's clinical data, the same dynamic Recursion's Sanofi/Roche relationship could trigger.
RXRX✅ GoodMay 2026
+10%
in 2 days
Q1 2026 earnings beat — smaller loss, stronger revenue, cash runway reaffirmed to early 2028
Same-company precedent for tomorrow's setup: RXRX rewards clean beats with double-digit moves when cash-runway concerns are addressed directly.
RXRX❌ BadJul 2026
-7.9%
in 1 day
Unfavorable trial-data headline + insider Form 144 filing
Shows the downside template if tomorrow's print reopens the same cash-burn/insider-selling narrative rather than resolving it.
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode
Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.
⚠️
Use this stop-loss set (-16.7% / -20%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -16.7% / -37.1% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.
📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
-5% to 0% (drifting into the event rather than running up)minimal; the stock has drifted down into this print (-16.9% over the past month)
RXRX shows minimal sustained pre-earnings runup historically — the stock tends to sit flat-to-weak into the print and then react sharply on the actual numbers, consistent with its muted reaction to the positive REC-4881 data earlier in the summer.
🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +10%
range: +7.6% to +13.3%· May 2026 (RXRX Q1 2026 earnings beat)
On its last earnings beat (Q1 2026, May 6), RXRX jumped 7.6-13.3% intraday/multi-day on a smaller-than-expected loss, stronger revenue, and reaffirmed cash runway to early 2028 — the template for tomorrow's setup.
❌ Catalyst Missavg -8%
range: -5% to -8%· Jul 2026 (RXRX trial-data + Form 144 selloff)
In mid-July 2026, RXRX fell 7.9% in a session on an unfavorable-trial-data headline compounded by an insider Form 144 filing — shows how sharply sentiment can flip on negative news even without a full earnings miss.
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
3%
of portfolio
Small-cap ($1.69B), ~35% short interest, and a binary earnings event tomorrow — 3% sizing respects genuine two-sided risk into a print with a real track record of double-digit swings either way.
🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-16.7%($2.65)
Below the 52-week-low zone ahead of tomorrow's print — a fresh low pre-earnings would be a real warning sign independent of the results
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-20%
If Q2 results show a wider-than-expected loss, cash-runway guidance walked back, or Sanofi/Roche milestone flow slowing, exit