📊 Backtest📒 Journal Updated 29/09/2026
← ⚡ Catalyst
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STALE?Report written 54 days ago · at $4.83entry levels may be stale — re-check before acting

SERV

ค่าขนมSMALL CAP
Serve Robotics Inc. · NASDAQ · Technology / Robotics (Autonomous Delivery)
$4.83
▼ 1.43%
MCap $373M
Live price Aug 13 07:49, -1.43% today. Prior report (Aug 4) used $5.65 — -14.5% drift. That report was written TWO DAYS BEFORE the Aug 6 Q2 print and its entire analyst-target basis (Northland $26, Wedbush $22, Oppenheimer $20, consensus $18.45) predates the cuts that followed.
BusinessAutonomous sidewalk delivery robots · fleet across 44 cities — but Uber, the partner the thesis was built on, has now fully exited
Thesis

⚠️ THESIS BROKEN — this replaces the Aug 4 report, whose catalyst was the Aug 6 Q2 print and which assumed a consensus of $18.45. That print landed badly and the assumption is void. Q2 revenue came in at $3.2M against a $3.92M consensus with a wider-than-expected loss, Uber delivery growth REVERSED, and management cut full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $9-10M. Uber has since divested its entire stake — the partner the whole delivery thesis rested on. Analysts followed: Oppenheimer cut $20 → $7, Guggenheim $13 → $7, Ladenburg $16 → $15, and Cantor Fitzgerald downgraded to Neutral and withdrew its target outright. The stale $18.45 consensus still sitting on the board is what made this pick screen as the best risk/reward available — it is not. Treat any residual bullish framing from the prior version as void.

📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
SPECULATIVEค่าขนม

Not a new position. Measured base rate is -6.9% at-catalyst with 74% underwater, and this pick no longer has a dated catalyst at all — its event already happened and went against it. If held, this is now 1.5% ค่าขนม on a partnership-replacement bet, not a delivery-growth story.

81
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
🤝 Post-Uber Partnership ReplacementUNDATED

With Uber fully divested, the open question is whether Serve can sign a replacement demand partner at comparable volume. No announced date — this is the thesis-critical unknown, not a scheduled event.

Ongoing
🏥 Diligent Robotics Healthcare DiversificationH2 2026

Healthcare robotics as a second leg away from food delivery. Genuinely undated and early — optionality, not a near-term catalyst, and it cannot offset a halved delivery guide in 2026.

H2 2026
📊 Q3 2026 Earnings~NOV 2026

First print against the reduced $9-10M guide. The test is whether the cut was conservative enough to beat, or the start of a trend.

Nov 2026
🎯 Entry Point
Entry 1
$4.83
Current price — NOT preferred. Measured median at-catalyst return across this dashboard is -6.9% with 74% of picks underwater at their own event (n=54), and this pick has no dated catalyst left to underwrite an immediate entryNot preferred
Entry 2PREFERRED
$4–4.3
Post-guidance-cut base; where the reduced revenue plan is closer to pricedIf dips
Entry 3
$3.20
Dilution or a second guidance cutDeep dip
✅ Take Profit
TP1
Both post-cut analyst targets sit here
$7
+44.9%
TP2
Requires a credible replacement demand partner
$9.66
+100%
TP3 🌙
Ladenburg's outlier — needs the healthcare leg to become real · 2027
$15
+210.6%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Wider than the measured core medianMAE of -14% per the stop rule, and deliberately wider still: a name that just cut guidance and lost its anchor partner has fatter tails than the corpus median
$3.85
-20.3%
Hard Stop
Below this the market is pricing a dilutive raise
$3.35
-30.6%
Risk / Reward
Tight stop (-20.3%) vs TP2 (+100%)
4.9 : 1
⚠ ⚠️ The prior report showed 17:1 here. That number came from a consensus target the Aug 6 print invalidated — do not compare the two
📅 Estimate Date
Q3 2026 Earnings
First test of the reduced $9-10M guide
Nov 2026
guide $9-10M FY26
Partnership replacement
Undated; thesis-critical
Ongoing
n/a
📈 Stock Timeline
5 snapshots · Jun 23 → Aug 13
Score
▼ 36
34
Jun 23Aug 13
TP2 Target
▼ 3
$9.66
Jun 23Aug 13
Rank
▼ 11
#32
Jun 23Aug 13
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-45%
$2.66
Base
+44.9%
$7
Bull
+100%
$9.66
Moon
+210.6%
$15
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — MEDIUM

Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution

Rate Outlook
Fed funds 3.50-3.75%, held Jul 29 with three dissents for a hike. Next FOMC Sep 16.
Inflation
July CPI (Aug 12) headline 3.4% from 3.5%, core 2.5%, +0.1% m/m — soft print after payrolls at -23k.
Sector Impact
A $373M pre-scale robotics company that likely needs to raise is highly sensitive to the financing window, which is the channel rates actually work through here. But the binding constraint right now is company-specific, not macro.
Summary
MEDIUM — financing conditions matter, but the guidance cut and partner exit dominate.
🎯 Analyst Targets

Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels

Oppenheimer
Hold$7+45%
Guggenheim
Hold$7+45%
Ladenburg Thalmann
Buy$15+211%
Cantor Fitzgerald
Hold$0-100%
current price $4.83
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check

Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic

SERV❌ BadAug 2026
-14.5%
in 7 days
Q2 2026 print — revenue miss, guidance cut to $9-10M, Uber divests
This is the event, not an analogue. It happened two days after the prior report was written and invalidated its entire target basis.
SERV✅ GoodMar 2026
+12.3%
in 2 days
Q1 2026 beat
What a good print used to be worth — while Uber was still the demand channel. Included as the ceiling, with the caveat that the channel is gone.
SYM✅ GoodNov 2025
+14.51%
in 1 day
Strong quarterly print
Robotics-sector comparable for beat magnitude. Note SYM itself fell 13% on a strong print in Aug 2026 — the sector's reaction function has turned less forgiving.
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode

Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.

⚠️

Use this stop-loss set (-20.3% / -30%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -20.3% / -30.6% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.

📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
-14.5% (post-event)n/a — event passed

Not applicable going forward — the earnings catalyst already fired on Aug 6 and resolved against the thesis. The -14.5% drift since the prior report is the market repricing the guidance cut, not pre-event drift.

🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +14%
range: +12% to +15%· Mar 2026
SERV's own Mar 2026 beat produced +12.3%, and SYM (Nov 2025) +14.5% as a robotics comparable. Both predate the partner exit, so they overstate what a beat is worth now.
❌ Catalyst Missavg -20%
range: -3% to -30%· Aug 2026
SERV shed only -3% on a May 2026 disappointment, but the Aug 2026 print was a different order of magnitude — guidance halved plus partner exit — and the stock is -14.5% since. The old comparable understates the new downside.
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
1.5%
of portfolio

Cut from 3%. Guidance halved, anchor partner gone, two targets cut to $7 and one withdrawn. This is lottery sizing on a partnership replacement, not a 3% conviction position.

🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-20.3%($3.85)
No pre-catalyst window remains; this is a general risk stop
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-30%
If Q3 shows the $9-10M guide was still too high, exit — that would confirm a trend rather than a reset
📎 Sources

Generated 2026-08-13 · Not financial advice