📊 Backtest📒 Journal Updated 14/07/2026
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FRESHReport written today · at $10.14

SLN

ค่าขนมSMALL CAP
Silence Therapeutics plc · NASDAQ · Healthcare / Biotechnology (RNAi Therapeutics)
$10.14
▲ 0.00%
MCap $0.3B
Self-fetched — not yet in live-prices.json cache (new pick this run), last confirmed close $10.14. Volatile heading into the Aug 2026 Phase 2 readout.
BusinessRNAi (siRNA) biotech · divesiran for polycythemia vera · Phase 2 SANRECO topline results Aug 2026 · Phase 1 data already showed sustained phlebotomy reduction
Thesis

Silence Therapeutics' divesiran (an siRNA candidate for polycythemia vera, a blood cancer requiring frequent phlebotomy) already showed sustained reduction in phlebotomies and symptom improvement in Phase 1 SANRECO data. Phase 2 topline results are expected in August 2026 — a real, near-term binary readout, not a distant promise. Analyst targets show real dispersion: an 8-analyst median of $25 (146% upside) alongside a more specific $34.75 'consensus' figure (243% upside) cited by a separate source — both real data points, presented transparently below. Cash position was $70.1M as of Mar 31, 2026, and the company launched a new $100M ATM facility in May 2026; runway estimates conflict across sources (12 months to potentially into 2028), so this is disclosed as a genuine uncertainty rather than a confirmed survival flag.

📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
SPECULATIVEค่าขนม

ค่าขนม — small position ahead of the August Phase 2 readout. Phase 1 data was genuinely promising, but pivotal trials fail to replicate early signals often enough that this remains a real coin-flip-adjacent bet, not a high-confidence call.

85
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
🧬 Phase 2 SANRECO Topline Results (Divesiran)~2-4 WEEKS

Pivotal Phase 2 readout for divesiran in polycythemia vera, expected August 2026. Phase 1 data already showed promising phlebotomy reduction and symptom improvement — Phase 2 needs to confirm both safety and efficacy at pivotal scale. This is the binary event that defines the near-term stock story.

Aug 2026
💊 Zerlasiran Program ShiftONGOING

Company has been repositioning its zerlasiran (lipoprotein(a)-targeting siRNA) program — watch for partnership or pipeline-prioritization news alongside the divesiran readout.

Ongoing
🎯 Entry Point
Entry 1
$10.14
Current — pre-Phase-2-readout, small starter size onlyNow (small)
Entry 2PREFERRED
$8–9
Pre-readout dip zone — better R/R heading into the August dataIf dips into readout
Entry 3
$6.00
Deep dip — broad biotech-sector pullback or negative pre-positioningDeep dip only
✅ Take Profit
TP1
Base — Phase 2 positive but modest, market prices in a favorable path forward
$18.25
+80%
TP2
Bull — clean Phase 2 win, median analyst target reached
$24.94
+146%
TP3 🌙
Moon — Phase 2 confirms Phase 1 signal strongly, partnership interest emerges
$34.78
+243%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Below Entry 2 zone — pre-readout nerves building
$8
-21.1%
Hard Stop
Phase 2 disappoints on safety or efficacy — thesis breach
$5
-50.7%
Risk / Reward
From Entry 2 ($8.50 mid) tight stop vs TP2
7.1 : 1
⚠ ค่าขนม — binary Phase 2 readout, genuinely could go either way despite promising Phase 1. Size small.
📅 Estimate Date
Phase 2 SANRECO Topline (Divesiran)
Pivotal readout — confirms or refutes the promising Phase 1 signal at pivotal scale
Aug 2026
Binary: positive / negative / mixed
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-55%
$4.56
Base
+80%
$18.25
Bull
+146%
$24.94
Moon
+243%
$34.78
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — LOW

Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution

Rate Outlook
Fed at 3.50-3.75%; binary clinical-catalyst biotech valuations are driven by trial data, not the rate cycle. SLN's thesis is entirely readout-driven.
Inflation
Core PCE at 3.4% YoY doesn't materially affect a pre-revenue RNAi biotech's near-term trajectory.
Sector Impact
Small-cap biotech has shown real recent weakness alongside other high-beta groups even against a resilient broad tape — a genuinely risk-off macro week could compound a negative Phase 2 reaction rather than offset it.
Summary
Fed risk LOW on the fundamental thesis (trial-data-driven, not rate-driven), but small-cap biotech beta means a risk-off macro tape around the Aug readout window could amplify any negative surprise.
🎯 Analyst Targets

Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels

Consensus (cited, source-specific)
Buy$34.75+243%
Median (8 analysts)
Buy$25+147%
current price $10.14
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check

Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic

CAPR✅ GoodJun 2026
+371%
in 1 day
Phase 3 HOPE-3 Positive Topline Data
Comparable small-cap biotech reaction to a strong pivotal data readout — an extreme outlier, but shows the ceiling for how violently these stocks can move on genuinely surprising positive data.
RXRX✅ GoodJun 2023
+54%
in 1 day
FDA Registrational Pathway Confirmation Comp (FOLD precedent)
Amicus Therapeutics' orphan-pathway confirmation for a rare genetic disease — a more 'typical' magnitude comp for a positive rare-disease biotech catalyst, used here as the moderate case against CAPR's extreme outlier.
CAPR❌ BadJul 2025
-30%
in 1 day
First Complete Response Letter for Deramiocel
Comparable small-cap biotech reaction to a negative regulatory/clinical surprise — useful proxy for the downside case magnitude given SLN has no same-company Phase 2 failure precedent.
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode

Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.

⚠️

Use this stop-loss set (-21% / -40%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -21.1% / -50.7% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.

📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
+10% to +25% typical pre-readout drift for a promising Phase 1→2 story2-4 weeks before the Aug 2026 readout

Biotech names with promising Phase 1 data heading into a pivotal readout typically see accumulation in the weeks before the data, though SLN's own recent volatility suggests this pattern isn't playing out cleanly yet.

🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +60%
range: +30% to +100%· sector pattern — SLN has no same-company Phase 2 precedent yet
Small-cap biotech pivotal readouts confirming a promising Phase 1 signal in a rare/underserved indication (polycythemia vera has real unmet need beyond phlebotomy) typically see 30-100%+ single-day moves — sized using the standard small-biotech-pivotal-win pattern given no exact same-company precedent exists yet for this specific readout.
❌ Catalyst Missavg -45%
range: -35% to -60%· sector pattern
A failed or ambiguous Phase 2 readout for a company this thinly capitalized, with an active ATM in place, would likely see a severe reaction — sized toward the higher end of typical small-cap biotech pivotal-failure moves given the added financing overhang.
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
3%
of portfolio

ค่าขนม sizing — genuinely binary Phase 2 readout with real financing-runway uncertainty layered on top. 2-3% keeps meaningful upside exposure without over-risking on an unresolved coin-flip-adjacent event.

🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-21%($8)
หลุด $8 ก่อน readout = ตลาดเริ่ม price in ผลลบ
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-40%
ถ้า Phase 2 ไม่ผ่าน primary endpoint หรือมี safety signal ใหม่ — ออกทันที ไม่เฉลี่ยลง
📎 Sources

Generated 2026-07-14 · Not financial advice