📊 Backtest📒 Journal Updated 13/08/2026
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STALE?Report written 28 days ago · at $6.43entry levels may be stale — re-check before acting

SOUN

ค่าขนมMID CAP
SoundHound AI, Inc. · NASDAQ · Technology / AI Software (Conversational/Voice AI)
$6.43
▼ 1.91%
MCap $2.78B
Self-fetched today (no live-prices.json cache yet). Down 1.91% today, down ~71% from the 52-week high ($22.17) after a $300M at-the-market offering announcement and legal-scrutiny headlines both weighed on the stock this year.
BusinessEnterprise conversational/voice AI · Casey's, OpenTable partnerships · 2026 Gartner Magic Quadrant Leader for Conversational AI · real $300M ATM dilution overhang
Thesis

This refresh needs to be honest: SoundHound's real upside has compressed well below the typical turbo bar. The 7-analyst consensus is $13.14 (+104% from here) — real and broad, but not close to 200%. The underlying business has genuine momentum (Casey's AI-ordering deployment expanded to 2,600+ locations handling 21M+ guest interactions, a 2026 Gartner Magic Quadrant Leader ranking, a new 'Sales Assist' AI agent), but the stock fell to under $7 specifically because management launched a $300M at-the-market offering to fund ongoing losses and M&A — a real, disclosed dilution overhang, not analyst speculation. ⚠️ SURVIVAL: this isn't a going-concern situation (2026 revenue is guided $225-260M), but the active $300M ATM is exactly the kind of overhang this skill's survival check exists to flag. Included here as an honest carryover update, not a fresh high-conviction pick — real story, compressed math.

📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
SPECULATIVEค่าขนม

ค่าขนม — small position only, and only if you understand this is now a compressed-upside carryover, not a fresh 200%+ moonshot. The $300M ATM overhang is real and ongoing.

75
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
🤝 Casey's Partnership ExpansionONGOING

SoundHound's AI-powered ordering agents now handle 21M+ guest interactions across 2,600+ Casey's locations — a real, scaled enterprise deployment showing the technology works at volume.

Ongoing
💰 $300M ATM OfferingONGOING

A $300M at-the-market equity program (plus a broad shelf registration) launched in early May 2026 to fund OASYS development and M&A — real dilution risk if fully tapped, and the direct cause of a Jul selloff.

Ongoing
🎯 Entry Point
Entry 1
$6.43
Current price — down ~71% from the 52-week high on the ATM/dilution overhangScale in (small)
Entry 2PREFERRED
$5.5–6
Near the 52-week low zone — best R/R if the ATM overhang weighs furtherIf dips
Entry 3
$4.50
Deep capitulation — only on aggressive ATM issuance or a legal-scrutiny escalationDeep dip only
✅ Take Profit
TP1
Base — Casey's/enterprise momentum continues, ATM issuance pace moderates
$9
+40%
TP2
Bull — dilution overhang eases as revenue growth outpaces share issuance
$11.25
+75%
TP3 🌙
Moon — enterprise AI story fully re-rates, hits full analyst consensus
$13.14
+104.4%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Below the 52-week-low zone — thesis-neutral but a fresh low on continued dilution pressure
$5.2
-19.1%
Hard Stop
Deep breach — would suggest the market has genuinely lost patience with the dilution story
$4
-37.8%
Risk / Reward
From Entry 2 ($5.75 mid) tight stop vs TP2
4.0 : 1
⚠ Below-average R/R for this board — real dilution overhang plus compressed upside make this a lower-conviction carryover, not a fresh high-conviction pick
📅 Estimate Date
Next Quarterly Update
Market wants to see the ATM's actual dilution pace and progress on the LivePerson integration
TBD
No confirmed date found this run
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-45%
$3.54
Base
+40%
$9
Bull
+75%
$11.25
Moon
+104.4%
$13.14
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — MEDIUM

Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution

Rate Outlook
Fed holds at 3.50–3.75%, but new Chair Warsh's hawkish tone has 9 of 18 officials projecting a further 2026 hike, with the next FOMC decision Jul 28–29, 2026.
Inflation
Core inflation remains above target and the 10-year yield sits near 4.48% — a real headwind for an unprofitable growth-software name that just launched a large equity program.
Sector Impact
As a pre-profitability AI-software name actively raising capital via ATM, SOUN is directly exposed to the cost-of-capital channel on top of the usual growth-multiple-compression risk hitting AI names broadly.
Summary
MEDIUM-HIGH — the $300M ATM makes this name unusually sensitive to the rate/financing environment right now; a hawkish Jul 28-29 FOMC surprise would make every dollar raised under that program more dilutive.
🎯 Analyst Targets

Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels

Consensus (7 analysts)
Strong Buy$13.14+104%
H.C. Wainwright
Buy$14+118%
current price $6.43
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check

Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic

SOUN❌ BadMay 2026
-5.3%
in 1 day
$300M at-the-market offering announced to fund losses and M&A
Same-company precedent for how directly the market has punished the dilution overhang — the central risk factor for this stock right now.
SOUN❌ BadJun 2026
-20%
in 30 days
$100M acquisition announced, stock still fell 20% in the same month
Shows a genuinely positive strategic move (M&A) was overshadowed by the broader dilution/valuation-compression narrative — relevant context for how much good news this stock currently needs to overcome the overhang.
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode

Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.

⚠️

Use this stop-loss set (-19% / -25%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -19.1% / -37.8% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.

📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
variable; financing news has recently mattered more than partnership newsimmediate reaction to financing/dilution news; partnership wins have been comparatively muted this cycle

SOUN reacts sharply to financing announcements (the ATM launch itself drove an immediate decline) more than it runs up ahead of partnership news — the dilution overhang currently dominates the stock's reaction function.

🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +8%
range: +3% to +15%· 2026 (SOUN)
Enterprise partnership expansions (Casey's, OpenTable) have driven modest positive reactions, but have been overshadowed this cycle by the larger dilution/financing narrative.
❌ Catalyst Missavg -20%
range: -5% to -30%· Jun 2026 (SOUN)
SOUN fell 20% in June despite a $100M acquisition, and separately declined 5.3% specifically on the $300M ATM announcement — real, same-company precedent for how financing/dilution news dominates the stock's reaction even against otherwise-positive strategic moves.
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
2%
of portfolio

Real dilution overhang ($300M ATM) plus compressed upside (104% consensus, below this board's typical bar) — 2% sizing reflects this as a lower-conviction carryover rather than a fresh high-conviction pick.

🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-19%($5.2)
Below the 52-week-low zone — thesis-neutral but a fresh low on continued dilution pressure
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-25%
If ATM issuance accelerates materially or legal scrutiny escalates into a formal action, exit
📎 Sources

Generated 2026-07-22 · Not financial advice