📊 Backtest📒 Journal Updated 29/09/2026
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STALE?Report written 7 days ago · at $11.34entry levels may be stale — re-check before acting

SPIR

MoonshotSMALL CAP
Spire Global, Inc. · NYSE · Technology / Space Data & Analytics
$11.34
▼ 3.41%
MCap $443.56M
Self-fetched today (live-prices.json cache dated Aug 13, too stale to use). Down 17.8% since the last report ($13.79 → $11.34) despite a genuinely strong run of new contract wins — the Aug 12 Q2 print showed a WildFireSat contract cancellation that dented gross margin (34%, down from prior levels), which looks like the more likely driver of the decline than the underlying bookings trend, which has stayed strong.
BusinessSpace data & analytics · 100+ nanosatellite constellation for weather (GNSS-RO), maritime/aviation tracking, and RF geolocation · $65M+ in fresh NOAA/EUMETSAT bookings since August · Diehl Defence missile-tracking MOU still the moonshot lever
Thesis

Spire's bookings momentum has genuinely strengthened since the last report: $33.2M NOAA contract (Sep 22, with surge options to ~$66M), $28M NOAA hyperspectral microwave-sounding deal (Aug 26), €4M EUMETSAT renewal (Aug 25), and a $3.7M NOAA award (Aug 14) — over $65M in fresh bookings in six weeks. Q2 2026 earnings (Aug 12) showed $18.0M revenue (+16% YoY ex-Maritime, +19% sequentially), $91.7M cash with no debt, and FY26 guidance reaffirmed at $75-85M — but gross margin slipped to 34% on a WildFireSat contract cancellation, and the stock fell 17.8% despite the otherwise-strong bookings quarter. The Diehl Defence missile-tracking MOU — the real moonshot lever — has no confirmed progress update since the last report; it remains MOU-stage, not a signed contract. Cash position is healthy, removing near-term survival risk.

📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
SPECULATIVEMoonshot

Moonshot — small starter sizing. Measured turbo median at-catalyst return is -13.7% (n=19); prefer the $9.20-10.00 dip zone over chasing here despite the strong bookings quarter. Base (bookings momentum continues) → $19.28 (+70%), Bull (HyMS/NOAA scales) → $24.38 (+115%), Moon (Diehl Defence contract conversion) → $38.00 (+235%). partnership_win is a measured lane-wide laggard per this run's feedback — the Diehl conversion, not incremental NOAA wins alone, is what would justify the Moon case.

78
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
🛰️ NOAA/EUMETSAT Bookings MomentumACCELERATING

Four new contracts in six weeks: $33.2M NOAA weather-data award (Sep 22, surge options to ~$66M), $28M NOAA hyperspectral microwave-sounding deal (Aug 26), €4M EUMETSAT renewal (Aug 25), $3.7M NOAA award (Aug 14) — direct evidence the government-data pivot is working commercially.

Sep 2026
🛡️ Diehl Defence Missile-Tracking MOUONGOING (MOU stage, no update)

Still the real moonshot lever — the non-binding MOU to co-develop satellite-based missile-tracking/early-warning systems has no confirmed progress update since the last report. Conversion to a definitive, funded contract remains the catalyst that would re-rate SPIR toward a European missile-defense-relevant multiple.

Ongoing
🎯 Entry Point
Entry 1
$11.34
Current price — down 17.8% despite a strong bookings quarter; turbo lane's measured median at-catalyst return is -13.7% (n=19), so this is not the default entryNow (small starter)
Entry 2PREFERRED
$9.2–10
Pullback zone — better R/R given the margin-miss overhang hasn't fully clearedIf dips
Entry 3
$7.00
Deep dip — approaching the 52-week low, thesis-intact onlyDeep dip / thesis intact
✅ Take Profit
TP1
Base — bookings momentum continues (more NOAA/EUMETSAT-style wins), WildFireSat margin drag fades; Base assumes a ~6mo horizon through the next earnings cycle for margin recovery to show
$19.28
+70%
TP2
Bull — matches/exceeds the cited bull-case zone as HyMS/NOAA scales further
$24.38
+115%
TP3 🌙
Moon — Diehl Defence MOU converts into a major European missile-defense program, full re-rate toward a defense-space multiple
$38
+235%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Wider than the turbo partnership_win-type median MAE (-25.9%, n=16) since this name has shown real volatility even on a strong bookings quarter
$8.28
-27%
Hard Stop
Deep breach — would suggest the revenue-replacement thesis (HyMS/defense/bookings offsetting the margin drag) is failing
$5.67
-50%
Risk / Reward
Entry ($11.34) vs TP2 ($24.38), tight stop ($8.28)
4.3 : 1
⚠ Good asymmetry ✅, but per tier2 feedback partnership_win is a lane-wide laggard type — this needs the Diehl MOU to actually convert to justify the wide Moon case, not just Base/Bull momentum
📅 Estimate Date
Q3 2026 Earnings
Next confirmation point for the >30% ex-Maritime growth guidance and any Diehl Defence MOU progress update
Nov 2026 (exact date not yet confirmed)
n/a
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-40%
$6.8
Base
+70%
$19.28
Bull
+115%
$24.38
Moon
+235%
$38
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — MEDIUM

Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution

Rate Outlook
SPIR's revenue mix (government + commercial data subscriptions) is only partly rate-insensitive — the commercial side remains more exposed to broad risk appetite than a pure defense-contractor peer.
Inflation
Core inflation remains above target; a secondary factor versus the WildFireSat-driven margin question and Diehl MOU timing.
Sector Impact
Government/defense-adjacent revenue (NOAA, EUMETSAT, Diehl) is largely appropriations/policy-driven and rate-insensitive, but SPIR's own recent history of capital raises (April private placement, active shelf) keeps it more exposed than most to a tightening in financing conditions.
Summary
MEDIUM — the underlying government/defense pivot is structurally macro-independent and cash is now healthier ($91.7M, no debt), reducing the financing-risk channel somewhat since the last report.
🎯 Analyst Targets

Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels

Wall Street Consensus (3 analysts, Strong Buy, as of last update)
Strong Buy$20.875+84%
current price $11.34
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check

Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic

RDW✅ GoodFeb 2026
+220%
in 90 days
Golden Dome missile-defense SHIELD IDIQ contract award (Missile Defense Agency)
Closest same-theme comparable — directly relevant to what a Diehl Defence MOU conversion could do for SPIR.
SPIR❌ BadAug-Sep 2026
-17.8%
in 42 days
$65M+ in new NOAA/EUMETSAT contract bookings over six weeks (Aug-Sep 2026), stock declines anyway on WildFireSat margin miss
Same-company precedent for how a strong bookings quarter can still be overshadowed by a single margin-negative item — directly relevant risk context for weighting near-term contract news versus margin trajectory.
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode

Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.

⚠️

Use this stop-loss set (-27% / -25%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -27% / -50% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.

📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
Sector precedent (RDW, ASTS) suggests +100% to +300%+ once the defense/commercialization narrative is confirmed by real contract valueWeeks to months on a structural narrative shift (defense pivot), then a sharp step on actual contract conversion

Space-data/smallsat names with a defense-pivot narrative tend to re-rate sharply on confirmed contract news rather than a slow pre-earnings build — Redwire's ~220% rally on Golden Dome-related contract momentum remains the closest sector pattern.

🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +220%
range: +100% to +300%+· Feb 2026 (RDW)
Redwire (RDW) rallied roughly 220% on Golden Dome missile-defense contract momentum (SHIELD IDIQ award, Feb 2026) — the closest same-theme comparable for what a Diehl Defence contract conversion could do to SPIR. Per this run's tier2 feedback, partnership_win is a lane-wide laggard (-3.8pp vs +2.0pp overall, n=16), so this needs to be a real conversion, not just incremental bookings, to move the needle.
❌ Catalyst Missavg -18%
range: -15% to -25%· Aug-Sep 2026 (SPIR's own post-Q2 drift)
SPIR's own Q2 2026 print is now the most relevant precedent — a genuinely strong bookings quarter ($65M+ in new contracts) still produced a -17.8% stock decline over six weeks on the WildFireSat margin miss, showing this stock can fall hard even on net-positive news.
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
3%
of portfolio

Unchanged — real, accelerating government/defense bookings sit against a still-MOU-stage Diehl catalyst and a lane-wide laggard catalystType (partnership_win) per this run's feedback. 3% reflects genuine but not fully converted conviction.

🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-27%($8.28)
หลุด $8.28 = ตลาดกำลัง de-risk thesis การแทนที่รายได้ก่อน Q3 — กว้างกว่า median MAE กลุ่ม partnership_win (-25.9%, n=16)
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-25%
ถ้า Q3 แสดงว่า margin drag ต่อเนื่องหรือ growth guidance หลุด — exit
📎 Sources

Generated 2026-09-29 · Not financial advice