📊 Backtest📒 Journal Updated 13/08/2026
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STALE?Report written 37 days ago · at $419.73entry levels may be stale — re-check before acting

TSM

Core HoldingMEGA CAP
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited · NYSE · Technology / Semiconductors (Foundry)
$419.73
▼ 0.44%
MCap $2.2T
Live-prices.json cache (just refreshed, <1h old). Roughly flat today heading into Thursday's Q2 print — the real action is expected around the earnings date, not before it.
BusinessWorld's dominant advanced-node foundry · manufactures for NVDA/AMD/AAPL/AVGO and virtually every leading-edge chip designer · Q2 2026 earnings Jul 16
Thesis

TSMC reports Q2 2026 earnings Thursday, Jul 16 — Wall Street expects EPS of $3.81/ADR (up from $2.47 a year ago) on revenue of $40.04B (up from $30.07B), with gross margin guided 65.5-67.5%. Analysts have been raising targets aggressively into the print: Barclays to $625, BofA to $590, Goldman to $600, all citing AI-chip demand and TSMC's advanced-node leadership. Consensus average implies ~12% near-term upside, with the highest targets suggesting up to ~38%. This is the dominant foundry for essentially every leading-edge AI chip on the market — a genuine picks-and-shovels core holding, not a speculative bet.

📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
BUYCore Holding

BUY ahead of the Jul 16 print — dominant foundry position, aggressive capex signaling confidence in sustained AI demand, and analyst targets still raising into earnings. DCA now, add on any post-print dip.

89
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
📊 Q2 2026 Earnings2 DAYS

Reports Thursday, Jul 16, 2026. Consensus expects EPS $3.81/ADR vs $2.47 a year ago, revenue $40.04B vs $30.07B, gross margin guided 65.5-67.5%. Capex plans toward the high end of the $52-56B 2026 range signal continued aggressive capacity investment for AI demand.

Jul 16, 2026
🏭 2026 Capex Guidance ($52-56B range)AT EARNINGS

Company has signaled capex toward the high end of its range — a proxy for how confident management is in sustained AI-chip demand through 2026-2027. Watch for any revision at the Jul 16 print.

Jul 16, 2026
🎯 Entry Point
Entry 1
$419.73
Current price — 2 days before earningsNow
Entry 2PREFERRED
$385–400
Pre-earnings or post-earnings dip zone — better R/R if there's any pullbackIf dips
Entry 3
$350.00
Deep dip — broad semis or macro selloff onlyDeep dip only
✅ Take Profit
TP1
Base — clean beat, consensus average target reached
$470.1
+12%
TP2
Bull — strong beat + raised guidance, BofA target territory
$524.66
+25%
TP3 🌙
Moon — blowout print + capex raise, Barclays/Goldman high-target territory
$596.02
+42%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Below Entry 2 zone — earnings reaction turning negative
$385
-8.3%
Hard Stop
Deep breach — thesis-level AI-capex demand concern
$340
-19%
Risk / Reward
From Entry 2 ($392.50 mid) tight stop vs TP2
3.1 : 1
⚠ Solid R/R for a mega-cap core holding into a real, dated catalyst
📅 Estimate Date
Q2 2026 Earnings
EPS $3.81/ADR, revenue $40.04B expected; margin guide 65.5-67.5%
Jul 16, 2026
est. $40.04B rev
📈 Stock Timeline
2 snapshots · Jul 6 → Jul 14
Score
▼ 4
78
Jul 6Jul 14
TP2 Target
▼ 65
$524.66
Jul 6Jul 14
Rank
▼ 4
#11
Jul 6Jul 14
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-15%
$356.77
Base
+12%
$470.1
Bull
+25%
$524.66
Moon
+42%
$596.02
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — MEDIUM

Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution

Rate Outlook
Fed holds at 3.50-3.75%, but Chair Warsh's hawkish Jun debut FOMC (9/18 officials projecting a 2026 hike) plus today's CPI/testimony double-header keeps mega-cap tech valuations exposed to a higher-for-longer repricing.
Inflation
Core PCE accelerated to 3.4% YoY (May, highest since Oct 2023) — reinforces the hawkish setup into the Jul 28-29 FOMC, which lands 12 days after TSM's own print.
Sector Impact
MEDIUM. TSM's own catalyst (Jul 16 earnings) is company-specific and largely insulated from the macro calendar timing, but the stock's rich multiple (already re-rated significantly on AI optimism) makes it sensitive to any broad de-rating of AI-capex names into the dense Jul 27-Aug 1 week.
Summary
Fed risk MEDIUM — the Jul 16 earnings catalyst is well ahead of the FOMC/Big-Tech/PCE cluster, giving some breathing room, but a mega-cap name this large and this reliant on the AI-capex narrative isn't immune to a broader risk-off shock later in the month.
🎯 Analyst Targets

Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels

Barclays
Buy$625+49%
Goldman Sachs
Buy$600+43%
BofA
Buy$590+41%
Consensus (average)
Strong Buy$470+12%
current price $419.73
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check

Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic

AVGO✅ Good2026
+6%
in 1 day
Q2 2026 Earnings — AI Networking Beat
Comparable mega-cap AI-infrastructure earnings reaction — useful proxy for the magnitude a clean AI-demand-driven beat can produce in this sector.
AMD✅ Good2026
+8%
in 1 day
Q1 2026 Earnings + Guidance Raise
Comparable semiconductor earnings reaction on AI-driven demand strength, useful as a sanity check on the postWin range.
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode

Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.

⚠️

Use this stop-loss set (-8% / -12%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -8.3% / -19% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.

📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
target hikes have been the main pre-earnings signal this cycle rather than price drift1-2 weeks before earnings via analyst target hikes, though price action itself has been muted right before the print

TSM has typically drifted modestly higher into earnings on AI-capex optimism, though the stock is roughly flat in the 2 days immediately before this print, suggesting the market is waiting for the actual number rather than pre-positioning aggressively.

🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +5%
range: +2% to +8%· 2026 sector pattern
Large-cap foundry/semiconductor earnings beats on strong AI demand have typically driven mid-single-digit pops for a stock this size — using the standard mega-cap semis pattern given TSM's own most recent comparable quarterly reactions weren't available in this research pass.
❌ Catalyst Missavg -6%
range: -4% to -10%· sector pattern
A guidance miss or margin disappointment for a stock with this much optimism already priced into recent target hikes would likely see a sharper-than-typical reaction — sized toward the higher end of standard mega-cap semis miss reactions given the elevated expectations bar.
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
15%
of portfolio

Core Holding — dominant, structurally advantaged foundry position with real, near-term earnings catalyst. Sized as a meaningful core position, not a speculative trade.

🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-8%($385)
Below Entry 2 zone before Jul 16 = market pricing in a weaker print
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-12%
If Q2 misses guidance or margin comes in below 65.5%, reassess position size
📎 Sources

Generated 2026-07-14 · Not financial advice