📊 Backtest📒 JournalUpdated 06/07/2026
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FRESHReport written today · at $446.50

TSM

Core HoldingMEGA CAP
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. · NYSE · Technology / Semiconductors
$446.50
▲ 2.84%
MCap $920B
Pre-market Jul 6 ~$446.50 after Jul 2 close $434.16 — bid up ahead of Jul 16 Q2 earnings as Citi raised TW target to NT$3,800 (+32%) and Street expects ~$40B rev (+33% YoY) with a guide raise
BusinessFoundry · 70% global advanced-node market share — sole scalable manufacturer for NVIDIA Blackwell, AMD MI300, Apple A-series; N2/N3E pricing power on AI demand
Thesis

TSM is the irreplaceable foundry backbone of the AI cycle — 70% global foundry share, sole scalable source for NVIDIA Blackwell, AMD MI300, and Apple silicon. Q2 2026 earnings on Jul 16 is the primary catalyst: Wall Street expects ~$40B revenue (+33% YoY) and EPS ~$3.80, with consensus looking for a full-year 2026 revenue guide raise on sustained AI/HPC demand and N3/N2 pricing power. Citi just raised its TW price target to NT$3,800 from NT$2,875 (+32%) ahead of the print; TipRanks ADR consensus sits at $520 (+17% from Jul 2 close, Strong Buy). Pre-earnings drift is already underway — scale in now, add on any pre-event dip, and let the guide raise be the re-rating trigger.

📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
BUYCore Holding

BUY ahead of Jul 16 — TSM is the highest-conviction foundry play into earnings with Citi's +32% target raise and Street expecting a guide bump. Scale in at current levels, add on dip to $420-435, target $590 on beat-and-raise.

85
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
📊 Q2 2026 Earnings + FY Guide Raise10 DAYS

Confirmed Jul 16 print. Street expects ~$40B revenue (+33% YoY) and EPS ~$3.80. Key read-through: whether management raises full-year 2026 revenue guidance on AI/HPC wafer demand, N3/N2 utilization, and CoWoS advanced-packaging capacity — Citi already pre-positioned with a +32% TW target raise to NT$3,800.

Jul 16, 2026
🔬 N2 (2nm) Risk Production RampH2 2026

N2 enters risk production H2 2026 with Apple and NVIDIA as anchor customers. Any confirmation of yield milestones or volume pull-ins at the Jul 16 call would extend the technology-leadership premium vs Samsung and Intel Foundry.

H2 2026
📦 CoWoS Advanced Packaging Capacity ExpansionONGOING

CoWoS remains the binding constraint for AI GPU output (NVIDIA Blackwell, AMD MI300). Management updates on new packaging fabs and 2026-2027 capacity targets are a direct read on hyperscaler AI capex durability.

Ongoing
🌏 Arizona Fab 1 (N4) Production Milestone2026

First U.S. advanced-node fab targeting high-volume production in 2025-2026. Progress updates reduce geopolitical discount and unlock CHIPS Act subsidy recognition — relevant for long-duration institutional holders.

2026
🎯 Entry Point
Entry 1
$446.00
Pre-market Jul 6 — pre-earnings drift on Citi target raiseNow
Entry 2PREFERRED
$420–435
Pre-earnings dip zone — buy weakness 1-2 weeks before Jul 16If dips
Entry 3
$400.00
50-day MA area / macro-driven SOX selloffDeep dip
✅ Take Profit
TP1
TipRanks consensus target — base case post-earnings re-rating
$520
+16.6%
TP2
Bull case — beat + FY26 guide raise, Citi/Bernstein high-target zone
$590
+32.1%
TP3 🌙
Moon — N2 ramp confirmed + CoWoS capacity doubled + AI supercycle re-rating
$652
+46%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Below pre-earnings support — would signal guide-raise thesis failing
$405
-9.3%
Hard Stop
200-day MA breach — AI foundry demand narrative materially weakening
$375
-16%
Risk / Reward
TP2 ($590) vs tight stop ($405) from current entry
3.4 : 1
⚠ Good R/R — 32% bull upside vs 9% tight stop with dated catalyst in 10 days
📅 Estimate Date
Q2 2026 Earnings
Revenue guide raise is the key — Citi already raised TW target +32% ahead of print
Jul 16, 2026
est. rev ~$40B · EPS ~$3.80
N2 Risk Production Update
Yield and customer pull-in commentary expected on earnings call or subsequent investor day
H2 2026
Apple + NVIDIA anchor customers
Q3 2026 Earnings
Follow-through quarter — confirms whether Q2 guide raise was sandbagging or demand inflection
Oct 2026
est. rev ~$42B+
📈 Stock Timeline
1 snapshot · Jul 6
First snapshot — check back next week
Score
82
Jul 6
TP2 Target
$590
Jul 6
Rank
#7
Jul 6
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-15%
$380
Base
+17%
$522
Bull
+32%
$590
Moon
+46%
$652
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — MEDIUM

Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution

Rate Outlook
Fed funds held at 3.50-3.75% through Jun 2026 FOMC. Next meeting Jul 28-29. Dot plot still skews hawkish — median 2026 projection ~3.8% with several officials flagging additional hike risk under Chair Warsh.
Inflation
Core PCE running above 2% target; services inflation sticky. No near-term dovish pivot signaled — rate-cut expectations pushed to late 2026 at earliest.
Sector Impact
Semis are moderately rate-sensitive: TSM trades ~25-28x forward earnings, less extreme than pure-play AI designers but still vulnerable to multiple compression on hawkish surprises. AI capex cycle provides an earnings offset that macro alone cannot derail near-term.
Summary
MEDIUM — rates are stable-not-easing, which caps multiple expansion, but TSM's earnings growth (+30% YoY rev) and irreplaceable foundry moat mean macro is a headwind to upside pace, not a thesis breaker ahead of Jul 16 earnings.
🎯 Analyst Targets

Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels

TipRanks Consensus (28 analysts)
Strong Buy$520+16%
Citigroup
Buy$580+30%
Goldman Sachs
Buy$550+23%
Morgan Stanley
Overweight$540+21%
Bernstein
Outperform$600+34%
current price $446.50
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check

Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic

TSM✅ GoodApr 2024
+7%
in 5 days
Q1 2024 earnings — beat + raised full-year revenue outlook on AI/HPC
Revenue beat, EPS beat, and raised FY2024 revenue guidance citing strong AI accelerator and HPC demand. ADR rallied ~6-7% over the following week — direct template for a Jul 16 beat-and-raise scenario.
TSM✅ GoodJan 2025
+5%
in 3 days
Q4 2024 earnings — record revenue, strong AI outlook
TSM reported record Q4 revenue on sustained AI chip demand; stock gained ~4-5% as management guided for continued N3/N5 utilization strength. Shows the stock's positive sensitivity to AI-driven guide raises.
ASML✅ GoodOct 2024
+4%
in 2 days
Q3 2024 earnings — beat on EUV orders, raised outlook
ASML beat on EUV system orders tied to TSM and Intel capex; stock +4%, SOX +3-4% in sympathy. Foundry-equipment beat is a leading indicator for TSM wafer demand — relevant read-through for Jul 16.
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode

Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.

⚠️

Use this stop-loss set (-9% / -12%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -9.3% / -16% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.

📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
+3% to +8%1-2 weeks pre-earnings

TSM historically drifts +3-8% in the 1-2 weeks before earnings as AI foundry demand expectations build. Jul 6 pre-market (+2.8% from Jul 2 close) already reflects Citi's NT$3,800 target raise — typical pre-earnings pattern for this name.

🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +7%
range: +5% to +10%· Apr 2024
TSM Q1 2024 earnings (Apr 18, 2024): beat on revenue and EPS, raised full-year revenue outlook on AI/HPC demand — ADR rallied ~6-7% over the following week. SOX index gained ~3-4% in sympathy. Pattern: foundry beat + guide raise = high-single-digit stock move.
❌ Catalyst Missavg -6%
range: -4% to -8%· Oct 2024
TSM Q3 2024 earnings (Oct 17, 2024): inline results but conservative Q4 guidance on smartphone softness offset AI strength — stock fell ~5% next session, SOX -2%. Shows downside when guide disappoints even on a beat.
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
6%
of portfolio

BUY verdict with high-clarity Jul 16 catalyst, +32% bull scenario, and irreplaceable foundry moat — but pre-earnings run-up and geopolitical tail risk warrant 6% initial sizing, not full position. Add on dip to $420-435 or post-earnings on confirmed guide raise.

🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-9%($405)
Below pre-earnings support — abort spot if thesis shifts before Jul 16
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-12%
If Q2 beats but FY26 guide is held flat or cut (not raised), exit — that would signal AI demand peaking earlier than the Street models
📎 Sources

Generated 2026-07-06 · Not financial advice