FLY
ค่าขนมFirefly Aerospace Inc. · NASDAQ · Industrials / Aerospace & Space Launch
$26.71
▲ 11.00%
MCap ~$4.38B
Most recent confirmed close: $26.71 on Aug 7, 2026 (+11.0% vs Aug 6), plus another $0.25 in after-hours trading — self-fetched, most recent data point found in this pass; today's exact intraday move wasn't independently confirmed but the broad semis/tech tape was mixed-to-positive today (MRVL +4%, RKLB +3%, AVGO -0.6%). Q2 2026 earnings land TOMORROW, Aug 11 — this snapshot is pre-results.
BusinessLaunch + lunar + defense · Alpha rocket + Blue Ghost lunar lander + SciTec (space domain awareness) · $1.3B backlog, 80% of FY26 revenue already booked · Q2 earnings TOMORROW, Aug 11, 2026
Thesis⚠️ This snapshot is PRE-RESULTS — Firefly reports Q2 2026 earnings TOMORROW, Aug 11, 2026. The stock has run hard into the print, up 11.0% on Aug 7 alone to $26.71, extending gains that trace back partly to the successful Alpha Flight 7 launch (Mar 2026, +12.77% same-day) which validated key Block II upgrades ahead of the full Block II debut still planned for Flight 8. FY26 guidance ($420-450M, 80% pre-booked via a $1.3B backlog) should still hold from the Q1 print; the real swing factor tomorrow is execution commentary and any update on Alpha Block II's still-undated Flight 8 debut. Consensus (MarketBeat, 12 analysts) sits at $40.64 (~52% upside from here), with a $60 high estimate.
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — MEDIUM
Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution
Rate Outlook
Fed held at 3.50-3.75% at the Jul 29 FOMC (3 hawkish dissents), though the weak Jul NFP (-23K, Aug 7) has since pulled hike odds down sharply. Next FOMC is Sep 15-16, 2026. Small-cap high-beta names like FLY stay more exposed to any repricing than the broad market.
Inflation
Core PCE still running 3.3% YoY. The Aug 12 CPI print — one day after FLY's own Aug 11 earnings — remains a key swing event this cycle.
Sector Impact
MEDIUM-HIGH — the S&P 500 sits near record highs with a calm VIX (~14.9, falling), but FLY's own earnings land directly inside the NFP → CPI risk window, and the stock has already run hard into the print.
Summary
Fed risk MEDIUM for FLY specifically — broad market technicals have improved since the last report (VIX fell to ~14.9 on the weak jobs data), but FLY's Aug 11 earnings sits one day before Aug 12 CPI, and the stock's own +11% pre-earnings run raises the stakes for tomorrow's print regardless of the macro backdrop.
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check
Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic
Alpha Flight 7 successful launch, validating key Block II sub-components
Same-company precedent for how a successful, dated launch milestone moves this stock — directly relevant to the still-pending full Block II debut on Flight 8.
Q1 2026 Earnings Beat — Record Revenue
Closest available same-sector comp for a clean space-launch earnings beat, directly relevant to tomorrow's FLY print.
Q4 2025 earnings beat still sold off on Neutron-delay news days later
Same-sector precedent for how a good headline number alone doesn't guarantee a positive reaction if roadmap/timeline commentary (e.g. Alpha Block II Flight 8 date) disappoints.