📊 Backtest📒 Journal Updated 29/09/2026
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STALE?Report written 7 days ago · at $23.24entry levels may be stale — re-check before acting

FLY

Speculative
Firefly Aerospace Inc. · NASDAQ · Industrials / Aerospace & Space Launch
$23.24
▼ 3.61%
MCap ~$3.91B
Prior report (Aug 10) used $26.71 — that price captured a pre-earnings pop (+11.0% same day) heading into the Aug 11 print. The print itself delivered record results (revenue +659% YoY, guidance raised), but the stock has since given back the pre-earnings spike and sits at $23.24, -13.0% vs the Aug 10 report — a 'sell the news'/multiple-compression pattern, not a fundamentals problem. Consensus analyst targets were trimmed alongside (from $40.64 to $38.60) even as guidance went up, which is the clearest evidence this is a valuation reset, not a thesis problem.
BusinessLaunch + lunar + defense · Alpha rocket + Blue Ghost lunar lander + SciTec (space domain awareness) · Q2 2026 revenue up 659% YoY to a record $117.7M, FY26 guidance raised to $420-450M — the real story is fundamentals genuinely improving while the stock has actually given back ground since the pre-earnings pop
Thesis

Firefly's Q2 2026 print (Aug 11) delivered record revenue of $117.7M, up 659% YoY — a genuine acceleration from Q1's 45% YoY pace — with FY26 guidance raised to $420-450M (80%+ pre-booked via backlog). New contract wins have kept landing since: an SSC Space multi-launch deal (Alpha from Sweden, 2028+), a NASA Spacecraft Processing Operations Contract at Vandenberg, SciTec's $93.7M Space Force radar-digitization contract, a Lockheed Martin contract extension, and a new ISO Class 8 cleanroom (completed Sep 22) that can assemble up to 12 Blue Ghost/Elytra vehicles simultaneously. Despite all this, the stock is DOWN -13.0% versus the Aug 10 report's pre-earnings price, and the 10-analyst consensus target fell to $38.60 from $40.64 — the market priced in the good news early and is now digesting execution risk on the steep H2 ramp the guidance implies. Alpha's full Block II configuration (Flight 8) still has not flown as of late Sep 2026, slipping past its 'late summer 2026' guided window with no new confirmed date — the real de-risking event for the core launch business remains outstanding.

📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
SPECULATIVESpeculative

SPECULATIVE — measured median at-catalyst return across the core lane is -6.9% (n=54); buying at today's $23.24 is not the default entry. Prefer the $19.50-21.00 dip zone ahead of Nov 11 earnings. This is a genuine fundamentals story (659% YoY revenue growth, raised guidance, real contract wins) trading against a market that already front-ran the good news and is now pricing execution risk on the H2 ramp — the gap between story and price has actually widened since the last report, not closed.

76
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
📊 Q3 2026 Earnings~6 WEEKS

Reports Nov 11, 2026. Tests whether the raised FY26 guidance ($420-450M revenue) holds after Q2's 659% YoY beat — the H2 ramp implied by that guidance is a real execution test, not a formality. Market will also want an update on SSC Space, NASA, and Space Force contract cadence, plus any Alpha Flight 8 timeline.

Nov 11, 2026
🚀 Alpha Block II Debut (Flight 8) — OverdueOVERDUE — NO NEW DATE

Still hasn't flown as of late Sep 2026, having slipped past the 'late summer 2026' guided window with no new confirmed date. Flight 7 (Mar 2026) already validated key Block II sub-components and popped the stock +12.77%; the FULL configuration debut on Flight 8 remains the true de-risking event for the launch business.

Delayed (past late-summer target)
🎯 Entry Point
Entry 1
$23.24
Current price — down 13.0% since the last report despite record Q2 resultsNow
Entry 2PREFERRED
$19.5–21
Pullback zone ahead of Nov 11 earnings — best R/R if the post-earnings drift continues before stabilizingIf dips
Entry 3
$16.50
Deep capitulation — only on a broad space-sector selloff or an Alpha Flight 8 setbackDeep dip only
✅ Take Profit
TP1
Base — Nov 11 earnings confirm the FY26 guidance ramp is on track; Base assumes a ~6-week horizon to the print, beyond the core lane's 14-day North Star window
$33.7
+45%
TP2
Bull — matches the 10-analyst consensus target, market fully credits the guidance raise and Alpha Flight 8 finally flies clean
$38.35
+65%
TP3 🌙
Moon — hits the new analyst high estimate on additional contract wins + a beat-and-raise Nov 11 print
$49.97
+115%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Wider than the earnings_beat bucket's medianMAE (-9.6%, n=42) given this name's demonstrated volatility even on good news
$17
-26.8%
Hard Stop
Below the recent trading range floor — would suggest real fundamentals deterioration or a confirmed Alpha Flight 8 failure, not just multiple compression
$14.5
-37.6%
Risk / Reward
From Entry 2 mid ($20.25), tight stop vs TP2
5.6 : 1
⚠ Solid R/R, but the still-undated Flight 8 debut is real event risk sitting underneath this trade
📅 Estimate Date
Q2 2026 Earnings (realized)
Record $117.7M revenue, +659% YoY; FY26 guidance raised to $420-450M
Aug 11, 2026
New Cleanroom Completed (realized)
ISO Class 8, Cedar Park TX — up to 12 simultaneous Blue Ghost/Elytra units
Sep 22, 2026
Q3 2026 Earnings
Tests whether raised FY26 guidance holds; also watch for an Alpha Flight 8 timeline update
Nov 11, 2026
Revenue growth expected to continue; execution is the real question
📈 Stock Timeline
8 snapshots · Jun 30 → Sep 29
Score
▼ 12
56
Jun 30Sep 29
TP2 Target
▼ 2
$38.35
Jun 30Sep 29
Rank
▼ 15
#35
Jun 30Sep 29
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-35%
$15.11
Base
+45%
$33.7
Bull
+65%
$38.35
Moon
+115%
$49.97
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — MEDIUM

Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution

Rate Outlook
Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% on Sep 16, 2026 (first hike since 2023); next FOMC Oct 27-28, 2026 — well before Nov 11 earnings. Rising Treasury yields have been an active headwind for high-multiple, cash-burning growth names this quarter.
Inflation
Core inflation remains above target — a persistent headwind for space-sector capex-heavy names generally.
Sector Impact
The space sector's sentiment has stabilized somewhat as Firefly's own fundamentals caught up to the news flow, but the sector remains sensitive to broad risk-off moves and capital rotation (e.g. toward SpaceX's IPO).
Summary
MEDIUM — Firefly's contract wins are macro-independent, but the stock's post-earnings pullback shows it's still exposed to broad growth-stock rate sensitivity and execution skepticism, same as its space-sector peers.
🎯 Analyst Targets

Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels

Consensus (10 analysts)
Buy$38.6+66%
Roth Capital
Buy$45+94%
B. Riley Financial
Buy$50+115%
Jefferies
Buy$35+51%
current price $23.24
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check

Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic

FLY⚡ MixedAug 11, 2026
-13%
in 49 days
Q2 2026 earnings: record $117.7M revenue (+659% YoY), FY26 guidance raised to $420-450M, but stock net-negative since
The print that this refresh is measured against — genuinely good results, but the market had already priced the pre-earnings run, so the net reaction since has been negative despite the beat.
FLY✅ GoodMar 11, 2026
+12.77%
in 1 day
Alpha Flight 7 successful launch, validating key Block II sub-components
Same-company precedent for how a successful, dated launch milestone moves this stock — directly relevant to the still-pending, now-overdue full Block II debut on Flight 8.
RKLB❌ BadFeb 2026
-9.5%
in 2 days
Q4 2025 earnings beat still sold off on Neutron-delay news days later
Same-sector precedent for how a good headline number alone doesn't guarantee a positive reaction if roadmap/timeline commentary (e.g. Alpha Block II Flight 8 date) disappoints — exactly the dynamic playing out with FLY's own overdue Flight 8.
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode

Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.

⚠️

Use this stop-loss set (-27% / -20%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -26.8% / -37.6% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.

📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
+10% to +15% typical pre-print, though this can fully reverse post-print as it did this cycle1-2 weeks before a confirmed print, based on the Aug 11 pattern

Firefly ran +11% into the Aug 11 print itself, but has since drifted down -13.0% net versus the Aug 10 report price even with record results — showing the pre-earnings run had already pulled forward most of the near-term optimism

🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +14%
range: +5% to +20%· Aug 11, 2026 (FLY Q2 2026 print)
Comparable space-sector names show 5-20% pops on major beats. Firefly's own Aug 11 print delivered the beat and guidance raise, but the stock's net move since then has been negative (-13.0% vs the pre-print price) — a reminder that a clean beat doesn't guarantee a sustained positive reaction if the run-up already priced it in.
❌ Catalyst Missavg -18%
range: -10% to -28%· Jul 2026
Firefly's own stock fell -27.9% over 30 days in Jul 2026 purely on sentiment (before fundamentals caught up) — the direct precedent for how much this stock can still fall on a Nov 11 guidance miss or a further Alpha Flight 8 delay.
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
3%
of portfolio

Real fundamentals improvement supports a moderate core-lane size, but the still-undated Alpha Flight 8 debut and the post-earnings price drift argue against sizing up further until Nov 11 or a confirmed Flight 8 date

🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-27%($17)
Below the recent trading range — wider than the earnings_beat medianMAE given this name's demonstrated volatility
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-20%
If Nov 11 guidance disappoints relative to the $420-450M FY26 range, or Alpha Flight 8 suffers a failure, exit
📎 Sources

Generated 2026-09-29 · Not financial advice