📊 Backtest📒 Journal Updated 29/09/2026
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STALE?Report written 7 days ago · at $14.62entry levels may be stale — re-check before acting

LUNR

Speculative
Intuitive Machines Inc. · NASDAQ · Space / Lunar Infrastructure + National Security Space
$14.62
▼ 0.80%
MCap ~$3.2B
Down -11.8% since the Aug 10 report ($16.57), consolidating after both the L3Harris pop and Q2 earnings; 52-week range $7.79-$46.72
BusinessLunar Infrastructure + National Security Space · Nova-C/Nova-D landers ($1.1B+ NASA CLPS backlog) plus a new defense-spacecraft line (IM-300 platform) after the Aug 4, 2026 L3Harris/Space Development Agency missile-tracking subcontract
Thesis

REFRESH (prior report Aug 10, 2026) — IMPORTANT CATALYST-DATE CORRECTION: the prior report's '~Sep 30, 2026' date for the IM-3 lunar landing at Reiner Gamma no longer holds up under fresh research. Sources conflict sharply this cycle — one describes IM-3 as already launched (Jun 1, 2026) with a landing attempt 'in the second half of 2026,' while Wikipedia's mission page states a Q1 2027 launch, 'though earlier sources mentioned a 2026 target.' Given that conflict, the landing date is pushed out to a fuzzy H2 2026 window rather than the prior false-precision Sep 30 badge — this is a real methodology catch, not a minor edit. Consensus (Strong Buy) target $29.50 implies +101.8% upside from $14.62, but one source's much lower $14.38 'edged-down' figure suggests real analyst-target dispersion too. Base case (+35%) sits well above the core lane's realized 14d P75 of +6.6% — the gap reflects a multi-month horizon to the (now uncertain-dated) landing attempt, not near-term optimism bias.

📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
SPECULATIVESpeculative

Measured median at-catalyst return across the core lane is -6.9% (n=54) — buying at today's $14.62 is not the default entry; the $12.20-12.80 dip zone is preferred. This refresh found the prior report's IM-3 date was likely too precise given conflicting sources — size smaller than the headline R/R suggests until the company clarifies the actual landing timeline.

70
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
🛰️ IM-3 Lunar Landing Attempt — Reiner Gamma~47 DAYS (date uncertain)

Third lunar landing attempt, investigating the unexplained magnetic field at the Reiner Gamma swirl. Launch reportedly already occurred (Jun 1, 2026 per one source); the landing attempt itself is the pending binary event, but its exact date is genuinely unconfirmed and conflicts across sources this cycle (H2 2026 vs Q1 2027).

H2 2026
📊 Q3 2026 Earnings~44 DAYS

Next quarterly print — watch for updated IM-3 landing-date guidance alongside the numbers, plus any follow-through on the IM-300 defense-spacecraft line after the Aug 4 L3Harris/SDA subcontract.

~Nov 2026
🎯 Entry Point
Entry 1
$14.62
Current priceNow
Entry 2PREFERRED
$12.2–12.8
Pullback zoneIf dips
Entry 3
$10.50
Deep dip — needs a broad space-sector selloff or bad IM-3 date newsDeep dip only
✅ Take Profit
TP1
Base case — landing date confirmed within H2 2026, IM-300 progress continues
$19.74
+35%
TP2
Bull case — successful landing attempt or major new defense contract
$25.59
+75%
TP3 🌙
Moon case — clean IM-3 landing (unlike IM-1/IM-2) + IM-300 contract wins
$35.82
+145%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Wider than the satellite_launch bucket's medianMAE (-19.4%, n=8)
$11.4
-22%
Hard Stop
Matches the bear case — signals the market has lost confidence in a 2026 landing at all
$9.5
-35%
Risk / Reward
Tight stop vs TP2, off current price
3.4 : 1
⚠ Strong R/R — but size for genuine date uncertainty
📅 Estimate Date
Q2 2026 Earnings (realized)
Already reported
Aug 13, 2026
L3Harris/SDA Subcontract (realized)
Already announced — IM-300 defense line diversification
Aug 4, 2026
IM-3 Landing Attempt
Date genuinely unconfirmed this cycle — see summary
H2 2026
📈 Stock Timeline
8 snapshots · Jun 23 → Sep 29
Score
▼ 8
52
Jun 23Sep 29
TP2 Target
▼ 2
$25.59
Jun 23Sep 29
Rank
▼ 26
#43
Jun 23Sep 29
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-35%
$9.5
Base
+35%
$19.74
Bull
+75%
$25.59
Moon
+145%
$35.82
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — HIGH

Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution

Rate Outlook
Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% on Sep 16, 2026 (first hike since 2023); next FOMC Oct 27-28, 2026 lands before both LUNR catalysts in this report, adding a macro wildcard on top of an already uncertain landing date.
Inflation
The hike raises financing costs right as Intuitive Machines continues ATM equity issuance to fund the Nova-C/Nova-D and IM-300 buildout — a direct cost, not just a sentiment headwind.
Sector Impact
Space-infrastructure names are volatile on both launch-cadence news and financing headlines; a hawkish Fed compounds the latter.
Summary
HIGH macro risk — upgraded from LOW in the prior report given the renewed hiking cycle directly raises the cost of LUNR's ongoing ATM-funded capital program.
🎯 Analyst Targets

Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels

Craig-Hallum
Buy$45+208%
Consensus
Strong Buy$29.5+102%
Lower-end reported figure
n/a$14.38-2%
current price $14.62
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check

Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic

PL✅ GoodJun 2026
+16%
in 1 day
Raised FY26 revenue outlook + successful launch of 3 new Earth-observation satellites
Sector comp for a successful mission/launch-tied catalyst
ASTS✅ GoodMay 2026
+20%
in 1 day
Sector rally on SpaceX IPO spillover + satellite deployment progress
Shows deployment-progress news can move a space name even without a landing-day event
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode

Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.

⚠️

Use this stop-loss set (-22% / -20%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -22% / -35% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.

📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
+10% to +20% on confirmed news; currently drifting down on date uncertainty insteadTypically 1-2 weeks before a confirmed mission milestone

LUNR has shown sharp pre-event run-ups on confirmed mission news (the Aug 4 L3Harris pop) but has drifted down -11.8% since without a specific negative catalyst — the opposite of a clean pre-runup this cycle

🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +15%
range: +7% to +20%· Jun 2026
Sector comps this cycle: AST SpaceMobile +20% (May 2026), Planet Labs +16% on a launch-tied guidance raise (Jun 2026). No LUNR-specific clean landing precedent exists yet since IM-1 and IM-2 both toppled on touchdown.
❌ Catalyst Missavg -20%
range: -10% to -30%· 2024-2025 (IM-1/IM-2 precedent)
IM-1 and IM-2 both toppled onto their side after landing — a real, company-specific precedent for the downside case if IM-3 repeats the pattern, though exact stock-reaction percentages for those events weren't re-verified this session.
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
3%
of portfolio

Genuine catalyst-date uncertainty this cycle plus a real landing-execution track record concern (IM-1/IM-2 both toppled) — size the smallest of the refresh batch

🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-22%($11.4)
Below this, the market has lost confidence in a near-term landing entirely
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-20%
If IM-3 repeats the IM-1/IM-2 toppling pattern, exit on confirmation
📎 Sources

Generated 2026-09-29 · Not financial advice