📊 Backtest📒 Journal Updated 13/08/2026
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STALE?Report written 9 days ago · at $16.57entry levels may be stale — re-check before acting

LUNR

Speculative
Intuitive Machines Inc. · NASDAQ · Space / Lunar Infrastructure + National Security Space
$16.57
▲ 1.80%
MCap ~$3.6B (est. — ATM issuance ongoing, share count in flux)
$16.57, up sharply from the $15.14 level of the last report — the bulk of the move came from the Aug 4, 2026 L3Harris/SDA missile-defense subcontract announcement (which drove a same-day pop as large as +22.8%), with the stock now consolidating near those post-news levels ahead of confirmed Q2 earnings on Aug 13.
BusinessLunar Infrastructure + National Security Space · Nova-C/Nova-D landers ($1.1B+ NASA CLPS backlog) plus a new defense-spacecraft line (IM-300 platform) after the Aug 4, 2026 L3Harris/Space Development Agency missile-tracking subcontract — real diversification beyond the lunar-only thesis
Thesis

Since the last report, Intuitive Machines picked up real business diversification: L3Harris selected it (Aug 4, 2026) to design, build, and deliver 18 IM-300 spacecraft platforms as a subcontractor on the Space Development Agency's $843M Tranche 3 missile-tracking program — a genuine move beyond the lunar-only thesis into national-security space, and the stock popped as much as +22.8% on the news. Q2 2026 earnings are now confirmed for Aug 13, 2026 (vs. an unconfirmed estimate last report). The lunar side is unchanged: IM-3 (targeting Reiner Gamma) still hasn't launched, and the $500M ATM equity program from June remains a live dilution overhang. This upgrades the thesis from 'pure binary IM-3 bet' to 'diversifying space platform with two live catalysts,' but doesn't remove the speculative risk.

📝 Primary Verdict · Core Holding
SPECULATIVESpeculative

SPECULATIVE — real defense-sector diversification (L3Harris/SDA missile-tracking subcontract, Aug 4) plus a now-confirmed Aug 13 earnings date reduce the pure-binary risk that dominated the last report, but the ATM dilution overhang and IM-3's unproven landing remain live. Scale in; don't chase the post-L3Harris pop into earnings.

88
score / 100 ⓘ
⚡ Catalyst
📊 Q2 2026 Earnings3 DAYS

Now confirmed for Aug 13, 2026 before market open (announced Jul 28) — upgraded from an unconfirmed estimate last report. Key reads: revenue trajectory off Q1's $186.7M, ATM pace/dilution commentary, and initial guidance on the new L3Harris/SDA defense-spacecraft revenue stream.

Aug 13, 2026
🛰️ L3Harris / SDA Missile-Defense SubcontractRECENT

Aug 4, 2026: L3Harris selected Intuitive Machines to design, build and deliver 18 IM-300 spacecraft platforms supporting hypersonic/ballistic missile-tracking for the Space Development Agency's Tranche 3 program ($843M prime contract to L3Harris; IM's specific subcontract value undisclosed). Real diversification into national-security space beyond lunar landers.

Aug 4, 2026
🌑 IM-3 Lunar Mission — Reiner GammaH2 2026

Third Nova-C lander mission — still has NOT launched as of Aug 10. Redundant altimeters + lighting-independent navigation sensors target the upright-landing failures that hit IM-1 and IM-2. NASA/company guidance remains second half 2026, no confirmed exact date.

~Sep 30, 2026
🎯 Entry Point
Entry 1
$16.57
Current — consolidating after the Aug 4 L3Harris pop, ahead of Aug 13 earningsNow
Entry 2PREFERRED
$13–14.5
Pullback zone if some of the L3Harris pop reverses into earningsIf dips
Entry 3
$10.00
Deep dip — would need an earnings miss or a broad space-sector selloffDeep dip only
✅ Take Profit
TP1
Base — Q2 earnings inline, L3Harris integration on track
$19.88
+20%
TP2
Bull — clean Q2 beat plus positive IM-3 timeline update
$28
+69%
TP3 🌙
Moon — IM-3 lands successfully and the L3Harris/defense revenue scales, hits consensus target
$40.78
+146.1%
🔴 Stop Loss
Tight Stop
Below the Entry 2 zone — earnings-week volatility becoming a real reversal
$14.91
-10%
Hard Stop
Would give back most of the L3Harris-driven rally — thesis-neutral but a real momentum breakdown
$13.26
-20%
Risk / Reward
Entry 1 to hard stop vs TP2 (Bull case)
3.5 : 1
⚠ Wide R/R reflects real volatility and two live catalysts (earnings + IM-3) — size for speculative risk, not core conviction
📅 Estimate Date
Q2 2026 Earnings
Confirmed date — watch ATM pace, L3Harris/SDA revenue guidance, and IM-3 timeline update
Aug 13, 2026
Rev: ~$200-230M est.
IM-3 Lunar Mission
Not yet launched — third Nova-C delivery, upright landing is the key open question
~Sep 30, 2026
Mission success = re-rating catalyst
📈 Stock Timeline
7 snapshots · Jun 23 → Aug 10
Score
▲ 5
60
Jun 23Aug 10
TP2 Target
▼ 1
$28
Jun 23Aug 10
Rank
▼ 1
#17
Jun 23Aug 10
📈 Possible Up % — Scenario Spread
Bear
-40%
$9.94
Base
+20%
$19.88
Bull
+69%
$28
Moon
+146.1%
$40.78
← downsideupside →
🏛️ Fed / Macro Risk — LOW

Assesses how Fed policy / interest rates / inflation affect this stock — LOW = minimal risk, HIGH = proceed with caution

Rate Outlook
Fed held at 3.50-3.75% on Jul 29, 2026, with 3 of 12 officials dissenting toward a hike. Government contract-backed revenue (both NASA CLPS and the new SDA-linked defense line) is largely insulated from rate changes.
Inflation
NASA/DoD contracts are cost-plus in parts — inflation pass-through partially protects margins on both revenue lines.
Sector Impact
Space infrastructure with government contracts is rate-insensitive. NASA/DoD budget stability and LUNR's own ATM issuance pace are bigger watchpoints than Fed policy.
Summary
LOW macro risk from a Fed perspective — the $1.1B+ NASA backlog plus the new L3Harris/SDA subcontract are a revenue floor largely independent of rates. The dominant risks here are company-specific (dilution, IM-3 execution, undisclosed subcontract economics), not macro.
🎯 Analyst Targets

Wall Street price targets vs the current price — cross-check our TP levels

Consensus (9 analysts)
Buy$40.78+146%
Craig-Hallum
Buy$45+172%
current price $16.57
🔍 Similar-Catalyst Comparable Check

Stocks that went through similar catalyst events — calibrate whether the +30%+ target is realistic

LUNR✅ GoodAug 2026
+22.8%
in 1 day
L3Harris/SDA IM-300 missile-defense spacecraft subcontract selection
Same-company, most recent precedent — real business diversification into national-security space drove a same-day pop as large as +22.8%, the strongest positive catalyst since the last report.
LUNR✅ GoodFeb 2024
+45%
in 3 days
IM-1 first private Moon landing validation
LUNR's own IM-1 drove +45% in 3 days despite a partial tip-over on landing. A clean IM-3 landing could produce a comparable or larger move given the current, still-modest market cap.
LUNR❌ BadJun 2026
-18%
in 5 days
$500M ATM equity program announcement
Stock kept falling after the ATM launch as investors priced in ongoing share issuance — a genuine, still-unresolved dilution overhang despite the recent positive news.
⚡ Optional Layer · Tactical Overlay
🎯 Catalyst Spot Mode

Short-term play around the catalyst (Sep 2026 earnings) only — an optional overlay, not a verdict that ranks equal to the Core Holding.

⚠️

Use this stop-loss set (-20% / -30%) only when trading the earnings spot — not for the core holding (use the -10% / -20% set above). If you are holding long-term, follow the core set.

📈Pre-Catalyst Run-up Pattern
+15% to +30% pre-launch (lunar); the L3Harris contract news itself was worth up to +22.8% same-dayContract-win news moves the stock same-day; lunar-mission run-ups build over 4-8 weeks pre-launch

LUNR has historically run 20-30% in the weeks before a confirmed lunar mission launch window, but the bigger recent driver was the Aug 4 contract-win announcement itself rather than a slow pre-catalyst build.

🎲Historical Post-Catalyst Move
✅ Catalyst Winavg +22.8%
range: +15% to +30%· Aug 2026 (L3Harris/SDA) / Feb 2024 (IM-1)
The Aug 4, 2026 L3Harris/SDA missile-defense subcontract announcement drove a same-day pop as large as +22.8% — the largest and most recent comparable for what real contract-diversification news does to this stock. IM-1 (first private Moon landing, Feb 2024) drove +45% in 3 days.
❌ Catalyst Missavg -18%
range: -18% to -55%· Jun 2026 (ATM announcement)
The Jun 2, 2026 ATM announcement triggered persistent selling (part of a 7-day, -24.5% losing streak) — a genuine, still-unresolved dilution overhang. A failed IM-3 landing or earnings miss on Aug 13 could compound this.
💼Spot Position Sizing
How the recommended % is derived
5%
of portfolio

Real diversification (L3Harris/SDA) offsets some of the prior negative catalysts (LTV loss, ATM dilution), but the dilution overhang and IM-3 binary risk are both still live — max 5% of portfolio, speculative sizing.

🛑Stop Loss · Spot Trade
Spot cut-loss levels — separate from the core holding
Before Catalyst
-20%($13.26)
A break below ~$13.26 ahead of Aug 13 earnings would suggest the L3Harris-driven rally is fully reversing
After Catalyst (Bad Result)-30%
If Aug 13 earnings miss with a guidance cut, or IM-3 later fails to land upright, exit 50%+ immediately
📎 Sources

Generated 2026-08-10 · Not financial advice